_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Radio show tonight! Listen live as Weenie Nation's hearts are crushed by a massive backpedaling of all the models, each model output more crushing than the last! Storm cancel. ;P Just kidding, let's hope we get some good news during the show from the 00Z cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM more amped through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 FYI euro ensembles go juuust outside the BM and stall. Quite a good hit I think for NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Man, look at that vort over our heads at 24hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Was there a map of the JMA past 72 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 FYI euro ensembles go juuust outside the BM and stall. Quite a good hit I think for NYC area. Foot plus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 A little ot...but this would be the 3rd year in a row it would snow on my bday...which is the 20th....pretty much a snowlovers dream to have snow on there bday... mine is the 19th. I win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 FYI euro ensembles go juuust outside the BM and stall. Quite a good hit I think for NYC area. And now the funniest part? The NAM is about to come in less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 And now the funniest part? The NAM is about to come in less amplified. I am not sure of that when I compare the 18z 42 h5 and the 12z 48 h5. Look in W TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 And now the funniest part? The NAM is about to come in less amplified. The NAM is the most inconsistent model due to its high resolution grid, you are probably joking around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 And now the funniest part? The NAM is about to come in less amplified. To quote Mr Gibbs WWWHHHHHHHHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I am not sure of that when I compare the 18z 42 h5 and the 12z 48 h5. Look in W TX Agreed, the trough axis doesn't seem as sharp but H5 seems a bit more amped then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The NAM is the most inconsistent model due to its high resolution grid, you are probably joking around though. He isn't joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The NAM is the most inconsistent model due to its high resolution grid, you are probably joking around though. Not joking, it actually looks a slight bit less amplified. We will see where it goes, it's only out to 48 hrs at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 **** the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Was there a map of the JMA past 72 hrs? 12Z JMA Hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 And now the funniest part? The NAM is about to come in less amplified. could be that no new data is entered for 18z and I don't believe the SW in question was onshore for the 12Z NAM. In fact I'm fairly certain it didn't make it in time for the GFS either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Earthlight -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_048s.gif Is that PV piece that broke off a pseudo 50-50 low? I see the rest of the PV is retrograding west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Earthlight -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_500_048s.gif Is that PV piece that broke off a pseudo 50-50 low? I see the rest of the PV is retrograding west that 50/50 low is actually the clipper that is moving threw now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Through 57 hours the NAM is a good bit less amplified. Doesn't really mean much to me given the west trend on every other model--but I would've been happy to see the NAM come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Better view of the 12Z JMA Hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Through 57 hours the NAM is a good bit less amplified. Doesn't really mean much to me given the west trend on every other model--but I would've been happy to see the NAM come west. Yeah, not at all thrilled with this. Status quo would have been better than this,which is NOTICEABLY less amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah, not at all thrilled with this. Status quo would have been better than this,which is NOTICEABLY less amplified. dont worry, if you had to trust a model right now, would u go with EURO or the NAM? I think 00z nam/gfs will continue to catch on, i personally didnt expect anything out of the 18z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 could be that no new data is entered for 18z and I don't believe the SW in question was onshore for the 12Z NAM. In fact I'm fairly certain it didn't make it in time for the GFS either Yeah, I believe the 0z runs will be our next set of runs to be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 JMA Precip 12Z Hour 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah, not at all thrilled with this. Status quo would have been better than this,which is NOTICEABLY less amplified. The SREF's trended well west (although they are running on 12z data)..and the ECMWF and it's ensembles have big time hits...I wouldn't worry about the NAM at the moment. It's def. something to keep in the back of your head though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The SREF's trended well west (although they are running on 12z data)..and the ECMWF and it's ensembles have big time hits...I wouldn't worry about the NAM at the moment. It's def. something to keep in the back of your head though. Shoulda skipped 18z today for sanity purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The SREF's trended well west (although they are running on 12z data)..and the ECMWF and it's ensembles have big time hits...I wouldn't worry about the NAM at the moment. It's def. something to keep in the back of your head though. the NAM is laughably awful not amplified and east of other guidance...the run around continues. Even though you're 100% right I would hedge my bet anyday on the GGEM/GFS/EURO/UK inside 96 than the NAM between 48 and 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How do the Euro ensembles look for PHL? I heard it was generally east of the Op. The SREF's trended well west (although they are running on 12z data)..and the ECMWF and it's ensembles have big time hits...I wouldn't worry about the NAM at the moment. It's def. something to keep in the back of your head though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Seems like the 18Z NAM isn't working with the most current data, throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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