December 18-20 Talking Points - Part 2

[tombo82685]

Tombo said 2-4" PHL and NW suburbs

yea, prob like that, dc gets hit very well

[NorEaster27]

Timing early sunday? Looks closer to sunday afternoon to me?

[A-L-E-X]

No, unfortunately I'd have to head back before that one arrives.  Using history as a guide, that means that now I've guaranteed that TTN will somehow get screwed on Sunday but the second one will be the biggy there...

If this thing tracks far enough west maybe TTN will get shut down with freezing rain and you wont be able to leave and will get hit with the second one

[_AR_]

SREFS are way, way west with major QPF.

No ****, heh. .25 (.5 spread) into eastern PA through hr 87

[ag3]

SREFS look fantastic. More members leaning west:

[kpantz]

You know it's serious when we're watching the SREFs.

Or desperate.

Saw them myself. Looking much better. Nowhere near the Euro, but it's a step in the right direction.

[Allsnow]

A little ot...but this would be the 3rd year in a row it would snow on my bday...which is the 20th....pretty much a snowlovers dream to have snow on there bday...

[A-L-E-X]

No ****, heh. .25 (.5 spread) into eastern PA through hr 87

0.75 line hitting the south shore of long island

[IsentropicLift]

What's the Euro showing for the clipper after the coastal?

[isnice]

Just...wow

[gkrangers]

The 15z SREFs have the mean SLP east of the BM, but the spread leans WAY WAY west. It is coming west in future runs.

[A-L-E-X]

SREFS look fantastic. More members leaning west:

Bullseye.... where is Chris L.  Someone call 911!

[hazwoper]

Sort of like the storm after the Jan 96 blizzard

OH NO YOU DIDN"T!

[earthlight]

That's a huge signal for a surface low tucked in under Long Island..wow

[patrick05]

how far west do we usually want this to be before we say "Stop"...?? i wasn't still here during the millenium storm but i've read people say Islip being the limit??

EDIT: oops, we are in "storm mode".. sorry, you may delete this now if you want...

[KEITH L.I]

if Euro is right..imagine the two football games on Sunday Giants Eagles at 1 and Packers and Pats at 8:30..you wont be able to see the field

[A-L-E-X]

That's a huge  signal for a surface low tucked in under Long Island..wow

the new englanders would kill if this verified, but it sounds like a combo of Feb 78, Millenium Storm and Feb 26, 2010 all rolled into one lol.

[A-L-E-X]

if Euro is right..imagine the two football games on Sunday Giants Eagles at 1 and Packers and Pats at 8:30..you would be able to see the field

Lol yea I said this in the Eagles thread-- imagine playing that game during a repeat of Jan 1996 haha.

[TropicalWX]

Is the image not working for anybody else?

i can't see it

[NortheastPAWx]

What exactly do the colors mean on the SREF SLP maps?

[Zir0b]

LOL...in 12 hours we went from people in SNE being depressed over the storm escaping east to now possibly worrying about mixing issues. One of the worst model inconsistencies I've ever witnessed.

[am19psu]

What exactly do the colors mean on the SREF SLP maps?

Standard deviation of SLP

[SnowGoose69]

how far west do we usually want this to be before we say "Stop"...?? i wasn't still here during the millenium storm but i've read people say Islip being the limit??

Its unlikely any sort of major mixing or changeover occurs with this event given its likely to be a much more mature/bombing low at the point it reaches near the latitude of NYC/LI than the December 2000 storm was when it was there....as a result the thermal gradient would likely be pulled well into the center of the low and you'd need the low to either track on top or west of you for there to be any changeover threat and perhaps the same even to get mixing with sleet.....the 1996 blizzard tracked very close to the coast but due to the storm's intensity even the southern NJ coast with a NE wind off a good Atlantic fetch only saw sleet mix in....a dry slot would be a greater threat.

[famartin]

0.75 line hitting the south shore of long island

You're misreading. Colors are spread, contours are mean total.

[Alpha5]

That's a huge signal for a surface low tucked in under Long Island..wow

Absolute insanity SREF's are great, good to see most members were probably a hit.

NAM should follow the SREF's

[Stormlover74]

we've had much worse than this. It wouldn't surprise me at all if we dont get model consensus until tomorrow night or saturday morning. At least we could see the issues the Euro was having yesterday so it makes sense that it had such a huge shift in its last 2 runs.

LOL...in 12 hours we went from people in SNE being depressed over the storm escaping east to now possibly worrying about mixing issues. One of the worst model inconsistencies I've ever witnessed.

[gkrangers]

What exactly do the colors mean on the SREF SLP maps?

Standard deviation of SLP

And what it means to those viewing the map is the direction the SREF is leaning with whatever feature, this one being the SLP.

So yeah, the contour is the mean of all the components, but it is weighted toward the left in this case.

If the spread overlays the contours, then you shouldn't expect much change either way. If the spread is significantly different from the mean contours, then you can potentially expect the mean to move in that direction.

[NortheastPAWx]

And what it means to those viewing the map is the direction the SREF is leaning with whatever feature, this one being the SLP.

So yeah, the contour is the mean of all the components, but it is weighted toward the left in this case.

If the spread overlays the contours, then you shouldn't expect much change either way. If the spread is significantly different from the mean contours, then you can potentially expect the mean to move in that direction.

And so the higher up the scale it goes (In this case that red well to the west of the SLP mean) the more where the members are leaning, right?

[am19psu]

And what it means to those viewing the map is the direction the SREF is leaning with whatever feature, this one being the SLP.

So yeah, the contour is the mean of all the components, but it is weighted toward the left in this case.

If the spread overlays the contours, then you shouldn't expect much change either way. If the spread is significantly different from the mean contours, then you can potentially expect the mean to move in that direction.

Not really, in this case. Without looking at the individual members, with coastals it usually means the DEEPER lows are to the left, not that there are more of them.

[kpantz]

Radio show tonight! Listen live as Weenie Nation's hearts are crushed by a massive backpedaling of all the models, each model output more crushing than the last!