December 18-20 Talking Points - Part 2

[tombo82685]

Really? Looks quite similar to the NAM at 72, no?

its hard to tell since it goes out to hr 72, but all i saw was a 1012 low a couple hundred miles off the se coast

[The Iceman]

If you mean spatial precipitation coverage then you are clearly right. But not if you're talking about QPF. That depends on which side of the ensemble spread the OP is on.

i meant that the same track on the ensemble mean with more qpf doesn't indicate that the same track will produce more qpf than the OP but that the a few of the ensembles must be west of the OP thus bringing higher qpf amounts because it's a mean.

[NJwinter23]

Maybe the models are converging on a solution clipping us and hitting new england pretty good though. This solution is somewhere nicely in the middle of yesterdays gfs HECS scenarios and the other model's flat nada scenarios. Plenty of time but I'm still leaning towards too far east or a lashing of a few inches right now.

[hazwoper]

its hard to tell since it goes out to hr 72, but all i saw was a 1012 low a couple hundred miles off the se coast

I posted the 72 hr maps from NAM and Ukie on the previous page. Looks to me that at that time frame the NAM has a weak surface reflection in that location as well, but that is ahead of the main low I believe.

[Stormlover74]

Maybe but the GFS has pretty much been big hit or nothing with this one, so I doubt this solution will hold. It could but there's still alot of time.

Maybe the models are converging on a solution clipping us and hitting new england pretty good though. This solution is somewhere nicely in the middle of yesterdays gfs HECS scenarios and the other model's flat nada scenarios. Plenty of time but I'm still leaning towards too far east or a lashing of a few inches right now.

[NittanyWx]

The UKMET, NAM split flow is an interesting scenario. The NAM solution (since it doesn't go past 84 hours) would appear to be the most favorable for phasing, and thus a pretty significant hit on the I-95 corridor. The Euro picked up on that displaced PV last night, and GFS, Canadian picked up on that in the 12z runs. That fact that 3 major global models have now shown some agreement on the PV further west is definitely a positive sign for a track closer to the coast.

[Rainshadow]

i meant that the same track on the ensemble mean with more qpf doesn't indicate that the same track will produce more qpf than the OP but that the a few of the ensembles must be west of the OP thus bringing higher qpf amounts because it's a mean.

You really do have to see the individual members. When the gfs was tucked in east of New Jersey yesterday, four ensemble members had it raining in PHL for part of the event. Last night's ensemble run, there was one member that gave PHL 32" of snow, the rest next to nothing. That would skew the average.

It was an interesting gfs/can ggem consolidation run, the pv was merged into one, looks like the short waves at the base of the trof were also merged/phased more and thus dug more, yup a big leap westward with the ridge also north of the pv.

[Sundog]

The ukie is gone from that link. You guys sure that was today's run?

[earthlight]

The NAM 84 hr 300mb jet and upper level orientation might be the best map I have seen since yesterdays big MECS solution. After seeing the 12z GFS bring advisory level snows into the area--one can now assume (instead of extrapolating or guessing) that the NAM would be a pretty sizeable hit at least for the coast given the fact that it's a good bit more amplified than the GFS. The NAM has a 70+kt 500mb jet streak nearing the base of the trough at 84 hours--almost no doubt in my mind that this run would tug the surface low up the coast. Take it for what it's worth given the NAM's history at this stage, but it sure is pretty.

[tombo82685]

You really do have to see the individual members. When the gfs was tucked in east of New Jersey yesterday, four ensemble members had it raining in PHL for part of the event. Last night's ensemble run, there was one member that gave PHL 32" of snow, the rest next to nothing. That would skew the average.

It was an interesting gfs/can ggem consolidation run, the pv was merged into one, looks like the short waves at the base of the trof were also merged/phased more and thus dug more, yup a big leap westward with the ridge also north of the pv.

according to the indiv, looks like 4 solid hits, 1 being very close to rain if not a changeover, a couple other scrapers

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html

[Allsnow]

You really do have to see the individual members. When the gfs was tucked in east of New Jersey yesterday, four ensemble members had it raining in PHL for part of the event. Last night's ensemble run, there was one member that gave PHL 32" of snow, the rest next to nothing. That would skew the average.

It was an interesting gfs/can ggem consolidation run, the pv was merged into one, looks like the short waves at the base of the trof were also merged/phased more and thus dug more, yup a big leap westward with the ridge also north of the pv.

Tony what was the old rule of thumb you posted about a few years ago in AFD........if the preciep does not get back to roanoke from a coastal it usally fails to get to phl?

[tombo82685]

The ukie is gone from that link. You guys sure that was today's run?

yea it says dec 15 12z

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2010121512&REGION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=850&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C1=p06i

[tombo82685]

clow map snowfall accum off the gfs

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=DIX

[Rainshadow]

Tony what was the old rule of thumb you posted about a few years ago in AFD........if the preciep does not get back to roanoke from a coastal it usally fails to get to phl?

Yeah, that was a rule of thumb the mets that have been forecasting in PHL for decades used.

[Rainshadow]

clow map snowfall accum off the gfs

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=DIX

Congrats ORH. Thanks for posting the link, that upgraded pretty quickly, last time I checked it was all old.

[ag3]

12z GFS at hour 72:

12z UKIE at hour 72:

They look very similar.

[RowanBrandon]

clow map snowfall accum off the gfs

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=DIX

About 5" in my backyard. I'll certainly take that at this point.

[Yorkpa25]

What time is euro?

[XtremeWx]

What time is euro?

It's coming out in about 5 min for those who have access.

[tombo82685]

What time is euro?

just initialized

[Manny]

Just saw the 12z GFS, def a decent trend west where coastal areas get good snows, not MECS-like, but enough to make people happy. Many of the models are now picking up on the some new factors that could in turn help us, hence the GGEM going west when all its previous runs did not even give precip to coastal areas.

[NJwinter23]

according to the indiv, looks like 4 solid hits, 1 being very close to rain if not a changeover, a couple other scrapers

http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html

Yeah the timing is 6-12 hours different on a couple members as well so that can also play around with the ensemvble mean. It does look like 6 members give at least a few inches to the eastern areas of NJ, Another one is a true scraper, and the other 5 are way out to sea.

[KEITH L.I]

can anybody tell me why 1010 WINS accuweather is saying rain and snow possible on Sunday..is their any indication of Rain?

[NJwinter23]

Just saw the 12z GFS, def a decent trend west where coastal areas get good snows, not MECS-like, but enough to make people happy. Many of the models are now picking up on the some new factors that could in turn help us, hence the GGEM going west when all its previous runs did not even give precip to coastal areas.

The gfs and ggem runs at 12z today, the way they rotate this wave up the coast around the retrograded PV scraping us with snow, look very much like a couple back to back runs of the Candian from a couple days ago, and perhaps some of the earliest runs of Euro too when it was showing a hit (not positive about the euro part).

There needs to be a site where you can pull up archived runs of each model, even if it's only for the past 10 days or so. It really could come in handy considering how many models and daily runs, and how easy it can be to forget different features of a run from early on in a storm threat like this.

[earthlight]

can anybody tell me why 1010 WINS accuweather is saying rain and snow possible on Sunday..is their any indication of Rain?

Possibly on far eastern long island but otherwise no.

[tombo82685]

sorry guys, where i get the euro is having issues and its not spitting the data out. Whenever it ever does come out ill post what it says.

[Allsnow]

The euro is stuck at sv.....trying to get word to fix it.

[Zir0b]

can someone twitter the euro in case the site goes down soon?

[earthlight]

can someone twitter the euro in case the site goes down soon?

http://twitter.com/#!/nymetrowx

[Zir0b]

http://twitter.com/#!/nymetrowx

Awesome, thanks!