IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i'm thinking if 18z models jump on board, and 00z Euro keeps status quo we might see watches as early as tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thanks Tombor for your updates and maps! You made the Christmas list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The JMA has joined the coastal party as well. Here's hour 72. The rest arent out yet: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i'm thinking if 18z models jump on board, and 00z Euro keeps status quo we might see watches as early as tomorrow afternoon? What apparent is a slower/bit delayed system and development off the coast. So watch those trends in the 42 - 48 hour period at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The JMA has joined the coastal party as well. Here's hour 72. The rest arent out yet: I was just thinking of the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What apparent is a slower/bit delayed system and development off the coast. So watch those trends in the 42 - 48 hour period at 18z. This is key. Once the models hone in on a slower moving system (show it more), with the right timing, it should be game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think we'll be fine. Now that the s/w is onshore we're well into better sampling regions. As we know of course the EURO is great in this range. I certainly hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i'm thinking if 18z models jump on board, and 00z Euro keeps status quo we might see watches as early as tomorrow afternoon? that sounds reasonable.. If this storm ces to fruition the morning commute, Monday morning will be horrible.. The 12/19 event was a sat night / sunday storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Really just an awesome run when you take a step back and look at it. We will know for sure in about 8-9 hours if this is legit, but at the moment it certainly seems that way. This is following the script that most of the big ones do. I made a post a few days ago about how I had a feeling this storm would be lost in days 4-6 only to come back in days 1-3. This isn't new, we've seen it before. Still plenty of time, but the depiction aloft on the 12z Euro would rival some of our bigger snowstorm set ups of the past 10 years at least. That's a textbook setup for heavy synoptic snowfalls underneath the CCB which is ripping, owing to cyclogenesis along the baroclinic zone offshore. As I said last week, the possibilities with this pattern are endless. We are so close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The JMA has joined the coastal party as well. Here's hour 72. The rest arent out yet: Is the image not working for anybody else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i'm thinking if 18z models jump on board, and 00z Euro keeps status quo we might see watches as early as tomorrow afternoon? Depends.. if the storm isn't forecast to really start until Sunday night, then tomorrow afternoon would mean 5th period watches. Generally something NWS doesn't do very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is the image not working for anybody else? I had to refresh the page but it finally worked for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Aww crap... You book your flight yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think we'll be fine. Now that the s/w is onshore we're well into better sampling regions. As we know of course the EURO is great in this range. praise to the mighty euro which 24 hours had a flat wave and showed nothing for 5 runs? It bombed on its handling of this storm...as has the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 praise to the mighty euro which 24 hours had a flat wave and showed nothing for 5 runs? It bombed on its handling of this storm...as has the GFS. Just saying that the EURO has better history in this range. Not excusing that it was whiffing on this storm for several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The EC happened. Now I really need to look at buying air fare... You really didnt want to come here And now you might get two for the price of one, as there is another storm a couple of days behind this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I had to refresh the page but it finally worked for me. My internet is even having issues refreshing the page. Must just be me then.. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What's the Euro showing for the clipper after the coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Depends.. if the storm isn't forecast to really start until Sunday night, then tomorrow afternoon would mean 5th period watches. Generally something NWS doesn't do very often. Looks like it might start early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like it might start early Sunday morning. Dec 19-20. Sounds familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Dec 19-20. Sounds familiar? Yes, and hopefully we dont have to wait long for that to get up here, like we did with that one. I want the heavy snows to start during the day and to last longer than they did with that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i'm thinking if 18z models jump on board, and 00z Euro keeps status quo we might see watches as early as tomorrow afternoon? Watches usually go up 36-48 hours before the storm, and if the snow looks to start Sunday morning, tomorrow afternoon definitely seems reasonable. What an incredible run all around; I still can't believe that at this time yesterday on the Euro we were looking at a flat wave hundreds of miles out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Just saying that the EURO has better history in this range. Not excusing that it was whiffing on this storm for several runs. Euro, historically, is better, and I normally prefer it to the GFS. With that said, it performed worse than Brett Favre's attempts to throw passes at Jen Sterger via text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You book your flight yet? Yeah... what's the point of having money if you don't spend it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What's the Euro showing for the clipper after the coastal? Tombo said 2-4" PHL and NW suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 SREFS are way, way west with major QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Tombo said 2-4" PHL and NW suburbs Sort of like the storm after the Jan 96 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You really didnt want to come here And now you might get two for the price of one, as there is another storm a couple of days behind this one No, unfortunately I have to head back before that one arrives. Using history as a guide, that means that now I've guaranteed that TTN will somehow get screwed on Sunday but the second one will be the biggy there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 SREFS are way, way west with major QPF. Hopefully no mixing issues lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 SREFS are way, way west with major QPF. You know it's serious when we're watching the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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