blizzardof09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So would this eurp run be classified as a hecs or mecs? Regarding from dc up to boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So basically if you went on vacation for three days and came back, you would have thought the models were being pretty consistent. Yes, Tony... and another reason to go on vacation would have been to miss the Lee signing lol. Actually Francesa did just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Could it be that the 12z solutions are farther west due to much better sampling of the southern stream energy? That short wave did come ashore in time for the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I agree we should be cautiously optimistic. Just as we shouldn't all jump off bridges when a bad run comes in we shouldn't assume it's going to happen from one awesome run. But it is the Euro and within 72 hours Yesterday, the Euro ignored the players that are on the field today. That's the short answer. Of course, the model gods giveth and the model gods taketh away, so I wouldn't be jumping for joy just yet. I am sure that once DT, John, and others have a chance to really analyze the maps and the variables leading the current solution, we could have a better grasp on how valid this solution is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wut do you think Tony (hopefully you still will comment even though I moved out of your jursidiction - barely). You think this is a hit or miss? Getting to be unfathomable for it to be a miss based on the 500mb pattern alone, as to how much of a hit, I could tell you something and be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So would this eurp run be classified as a hecs or mecs? Regarding from dc up to boston? HECS se va and lower half of Delmarva, SE and EC Jersey, NYC, LI most of SNE CNE MECS DC BWI PHL EPA Western Jersey and NW of NYC in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Chilllll, that was a beast run by the Euro. I literally had the same reaction I had on Sunday when it showed the storm burying us. Now, there is a little more confidence. With better sampling data, and the players on the field, the models tonight will have a much better grasp on the future of the s/w out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 No big High to the north but dcent high pressure to the west and nw I guess will do the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tson96 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010 VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 ...INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM... ...CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST... EXTREME HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO RETROGRADE TO NCENTRAL CANADA LOCKING IN TROFS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLC MID TO LATE PERIOD. PRIOR TO THAT FAST ZONAL PAC FLOW CONTS TO DRIVE INTO THE WEST AND EASTERN THRU THE PLAINS WITH A FIRST RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE COMING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND ROTATING NWD WITH A DEEP OFF SHORE STORM FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN WITH EMBEDDED WAEKER SHORTWAVES COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE EAST. UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BLENDED THE 00Z UKMET WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN DAYS 3 TO 5. THIS KEPT UP A WIND AND COASTAL SNOW THREAT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DAYS 4-5 LATE SUN INTO TUES. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE REVERSED SOLUTIONS SINCE YTDAS 12Z RUNS WITH THE N ATLC LOW. LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF LAST 4 RUNS OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF PREFERRED KEEPING THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE 00Z OP ECMWF CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND EASILY CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. 12Z GFS HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A DEEPER MUCH CLOSER IN LOW CLOSE TO YTDAS 12Z GFS AND CURRENT 00Z ECMWF TAKING A 980 MB OFF CAPE COD. THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS YTDAS HPC PROGS AND THINKING AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION WITH GOOD HPC FORECAST CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK AT 40/70 WHILE ECMWF HAS ITS 975 MB LOW NEAR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND. NAVY NOGAPS ALSO DEEP AND CLOSE IN TO CAPE COD. GFS ENS MEANS A BIT EAST BUT MEAN PCPN SHOWING A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER COASTAL MA. AFTN PROGS WILL ADJUST SLIGHTLY WEST HAVING A DEEP LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION WITH INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDNECE. RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE FROM THIS MORNINGS PRELIMS WITH AFTN UPDATED PROGS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC. HIGH WIND AND SNOW THREAT NEW ENG COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. NEXT CLIPPER TYPE OF LOW ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN ITS TRACK THAN GFS TO COME THRU THE SRN APPLCHNS AND OFF NC COAST TUES. BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF ENS MADE WHICH ALSO MATCHES A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. HVY/EXCESSIVE PCPN THREAT THRU THE PERIOD CONTINUES OVER ALL OF CA AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT BASIN AND SRN ROCKIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH TEH CONTINUOS ONSHORE MID LEVEL FLOW AND OCCASSIONAL FRONTS. 5 DAY LIQUID EQUIV TOTALS EXCEED 6-8 INCHES IN THE SIERRAS/COASTAL RANGES AND SAN DIEGO/LOS ANGELES RANGES GIVING WEEKLY TOTAL POTENTIALS IN EXCESS OF 10-15 INCHES OVER FAVORBLE TERRAIN. CLIPPER TYPE LIGHT PCPN EVENT EXPECTED FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION MON INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD BREEZY AND COLD CONDITIONS OVER THE ERN THIRD OF CONUS. ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Getting to be unfathomable for it to be a miss based on the 500mb pattern alone, as to how much of a hit, I could tell you something and be wrong. You said enough, that is probably the most confidence building thing Ive heard/seen to this point. Thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thought some of you might appreciate this. OSU? 12Z GFS HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A DEEPER MUCH CLOSER IN LOW CLOSE TO YTDAS 12Z GFS AND CURRENT 00Z ECMWF TAKING A 980 MB OFF CAPE COD. THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS YTDAS HPC PROGS AND THINKING AS MODELS BEGIN TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION WITH GOOD HPC FORECAST CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK AT 40/70 WHILE ECMWF HAS ITS 975 MB LOW NEAR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND. NAVY NOGAPS ALSO DEEP AND CLOSE IN TO CAPE COD. GFS ENS MEANS A BIT EAST BUT MEAN PCPN SHOWING A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER COASTAL MA. AFTN PROGS WILL ADJUST SLIGHTLY WEST HAVING A DEEP LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION WITH INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDNECE. RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE FROM THIS MORNINGS PRELIMS WITH AFTN UPDATED PROGS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC. HIGH WIND AND SNOW THREAT NEW ENG COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All I have to say is that if I have to watch another wall of snow being built 50 miles to the south of me like I did a year ago (and a second time last winter) I'm going to cry. Literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow at the Euro. I almost fell out of my seat at school when I saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I know it's a little early to nail it down, but at what time should we expect the snow to arrive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That map just Above is ridiculous- a 2/25 repeat but with all snow on LI would be insane.. A repeat of 12/19/09 would be equally great. What type of temps are we talking about as this storm winds down - mid 20's?? Also the low sun angle thus time of the year should make things last longer as compared to the 2/25/10 storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All I have to say is that if I have to watch another wall of snow being built 50 miles to the south of me like I did a year ago (and a second time last winter) I'm going to cry. Literally. You and me both my friend....but we look to at LEAST get in on some of the action with this one if all plays accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All I have to say is that if I have to watch another wall of snow being built 50 miles to the south of me like I did a year ago (and a second time last winter) I'm going to cry. Literally. Haha, could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All I have to say is that if I have to watch another wall of snow being built 50 miles to the south of me like I did a year ago (and a second time last winter) I'm going to cry. Literally. If the Euro is right, the cutoff will be east-west and not north-south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 All I have to say is that if I have to watch another wall of snow being built 50 miles to the south of me like I did a year ago (and a second time last winter) I'm going to cry. Literally. I'm glad you said it, but I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If the Euro is right, the cutoff will be east-west and not north-south. yeah unlike last year so loving this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If the Euro is right, the cutoff will be east-west and not north-south. Doesn't matter, it would be painful either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We've got to appreciate these types of early winter storms. December storms can be amazing because they are typically the first significant snow events of the season, there is absolutely no worry about the sun angle that may become more of an issue in late February and March. What is the time frame for the storm? When would it start, when would it snow the hardest, and when would it end? All I know is that it's supposedly going to start on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Aww crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Aww crap... lol what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 There is general model agreement about snow beginning predawn Sunday, for those who have been asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What was it the 2/6/10 event when NYC / north and east saw flurries as anyone south of the verazzano bridge saw ridiculous ants of snow... I can't see something like that happening again in my life time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 lol what happened? The EC happened. Now I really need to look at buying air fare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Doesn't matter, it would be painful either way. I think we'll be fine. Now that the s/w is onshore we're well into better sampling regions. As we know of course the EURO is great in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The EC happened. Now I really need to look at buying air fare... Now I know we are game on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Aparently the NAM is going to show over 2" QPF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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