Isotherm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This probably will come a bit west-- hopefully not more than 50 miles though. I think I can afford at least 50 more miles here in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 todays 12z ECMWF run 96hrs today's 00Z run ECMWF 96hrs much slower timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How much would East Brunswick, NJ get or Middlesex County, NJ? Also, is there any chance that the storm trends too far west giving us mixing or changeover problems or will that not be an issue? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think I can afford at least 50 more miles here in CNJ. Lol we've already got the sne-ers worried about mixing. Im hoping a track that doesnt get any further west than Islip. Analogs: Millenium Storm and Feb 26, 2010? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ok heres the map, from greatest to least dark blue 2.5-3 pink 2-2.5 purple 1.75-2 yellow 1.5-1.75 whitish yellow 1.25-1.5 light purple 1-1.25 dark gray .75-1 lime green .5-.75 green .25-.5 red .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Omg it's great for eastern PA!!! Have we seen QPF numbers for E PA or N NJ? I've seen PHL and NYC, but nothing yet for folks N+W of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How much would East Brunswick, NJ get or Middlesex County, NJ? Also, is there any chance that the storm trends too far west giving us mixing or changeover problems or will that not be an issue? Thank you. About 15-20" verabtim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Omg!! I love it! MECS At 84 hours..huge ccb everybody is buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Have we seen QPF numbers for E PA or N NJ? I've seen PHL and NYC, but nothing yet for folks N+W of 95. Never mind. Thanks Tom - quite generous is the Euro today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 prob said already but the phl metro and northern and western burbs south get another 2-4 with the 2nd storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If this thing goes further west than Islip i am gonna go on medication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Have we seen QPF numbers for E PA or N NJ? I've seen PHL and NYC, but nothing yet for folks N+W of 95. Looks like 1.00-1.25 for you, 0.75-1.00 for people like me and ptb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ok heres the map, from greatest to least dark blue 2.5-3 pink 2-2.5 purple 1.75-2 yellow 1.5-1.75 whitish yellow 1.25-1.5 light purple 1-1.25 dark gray .75-1 lime green .5-.75 green .25-.5 red .1-.25 2-2.5? are you serious lol? Im barely in the 2"-- but Im guessing get too far out east and you have mixing issues. I just hope the mix line is oriented west east not north south lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If this thing goes further west than Islip i am gonna go on medication. Yeah Islip is where we have to hold the line. That's around where the Millenium storm tracked too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Tombo, is that map right for down here? Shows me over 1.00" liquid and DC over .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This sounds too good to be true, just yesterday, the models barely showed anything and now we're dealing with a MECS on our hands, maybe? 3 days is a long way to go though, I'm worried things take a turn for the worse in future runs, but it's hard not to get excited with the Euro showing such a great hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The scary part is 99% of the general population has no clue there's even a possibility of a storm this weekend. Huge potential here! Yeah TWC is still blaring about a snowstorm for eastern new england and just occasional snow showers for NYC Sunday and Monday. Even the guy on ABC with his noon update said there might be just enough snow to whiten the ground but not plowable lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 are there dynamics in play for a further west track than currently progged? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This probably will come a bit west-- hopefully not more than 50 miles though. Wow, what a run!! And work coincided perfectly with it so I missed the probable slowdowns on the site. The only reason I would be worried about a dryslot or rain for us would be if the low headed due north from Cape Hatteras. It looks to escape east and then hook back in. It's much like the 2/25 event last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This sounds too good to be true, just yesterday, the models barely showed anything and now we're dealing with a MECS on our hands, maybe? 3 days is a long way to go though, I'm worried things take a turn for the worse in future runs, but it's hard not to get excited with the Euro showing such a great hit. At this point the trend is clear and the only way for it to get worse is if it comes too far west and we changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow, what a run!! And work coincided perfectly with it so I missed the probable slowdowns on the site. The only reason I would be worried about a dryslot or rain for us would be if the low headed due north from Cape Hatteras. It looks to escape east and then hook back in. It's much like the 2/25 event last year. Yes it is but hopefully colder lol. Save that precip map for historical purposes We're in the 2 - 2.5 inch qpf area. If you remember 2/26/10 it was the first time we had over 1 inch of liquid followed by over a foot of snow. Hopefully this time it will be all snow with the same precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So we're counting on the retrograding for our storm like last Feb or is that just icing on the cake? Wow, what a run!! And work coincided perfectly with it so I missed the probable slowdowns on the site. The only reason I would be worried about a dryslot or rain for us would be if the low headed due north from Cape Hatteras. It looks to escape east and then hook back in. It's much like the 2/25 event last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah TWC is still blaring about a snowstorm for eastern new england and just occasional snow showers for NYC Sunday and Monday. Even the guy on ABC with his noon update said there might be just enough snow to whiten the ground but not plowable lol. just cloudy skies for News 12; dusting for tonight on the south shore though... although they probably haven't seen the Euro yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So we're counting on the retrograding for our storm like last Feb or is that just icing on the cake? Icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yesterday, the Euro ignored the players that are on the field today. That's the short answer. Of course, the model gods giveth and the model gods taketh away, so I wouldn't be jumping for joy just yet. I am sure that once DT, John, and others have a chance to really analyze the maps and the variables leading the current solution, we could have a better grasp on how valid this solution is. This sounds too good to be true, just yesterday, the models barely showed anything and now we're dealing with a MECS on our hands, maybe? 3 days is a long way to go though, I'm worried things take a turn for the worse in future runs, but it's hard not to get excited with the Euro showing such a great hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Could it be that the 12z solutions are farther west due to much better sampling of the southern stream energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 prob said already but the phl metro and northern and western burbs south get another 2-4 with the 2nd storm is that right .75-1" for CPA? Wasn't expecting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Does this look very close to what the GFS had a few days ago, the run we were going looney over? The one with the storm stalling over us for 2-3 days lol. So basically if you went on vacation for three days and came back, you would have thought the models were being pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Just got home from work and am trying to catch up. I'm guessing that this is for the 12z Euro? ok heres the map, from greatest to least dark blue 2.5-3 pink 2-2.5 purple 1.75-2 yellow 1.5-1.75 whitish yellow 1.25-1.5 light purple 1-1.25 dark gray .75-1 lime green .5-.75 green .25-.5 red .1-.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So basically if you went on vacation for three days and came back, you would have thought the models were being pretty consistent. Wut do you think Tony (hopefully you still will comment even though I moved out of your jursidiction - barely). You think this is a hit or miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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