tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 after hr 120 everything is gone, new system coming in from west....the consistent easterly flow has pushed temps in the upper 30, no one in the northeast is below frz lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ok im gonna do a map now for qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Cant wait to hear precip totals. Great job Tombo, Allsnow, Earthlight and the others with the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hot on the heels, another H5 bowling ball starting to drop down across the great lakes at 126/132. Looks to be rising heights in the east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 For those of us on the coast there is always a chance of a brief mixing or changeover with a track from 50 miles east of AC to just east of montauk pt. Think of it as paying some tax on hitting the jackpot. Last night we were begging with tin cups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 hr 144 more snow from the other system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 hr 144 more snow from the other system white Christmas..maybe too much snow..nah it's never too much snow..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How the does the miller b look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Big WIN/WIN for us! I told you guys to keep the faith, the models no nothing until that SW comes onshore and now it has the 0z models tonight should be the clincher-- but we look GREAT right now for a snowstorm to rival the one we had on the same date last year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 IF You live in or west of NYC DO NOT WORRY ABOUT PRECIP. We want this as far west as we can get it... Maybe E LI/SE NE has a worry. Im going to use the Millenium storm as an analog-- as long as the storm center stays at or east of Islip we're fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Can we please focus on one storm at a time please? :-) How the does the miller b look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 LOL at 150... Another situation to monitor here. This is a very interesting setup with the ridging out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I feel like dancing. Euro showing more snow after the first? Could NYC asked for a better solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Im going to use the Millenium storm as an analog-- as long as the storm center stays at or east of Islip we're fine. I think the only people who can mix in this storm would be extreme eastern LI as in the Twin Forks/Montauk. We start with cold 850s and the track is a bit of a hook which locks in more northerly flow over the region. NYC and NW suburbs are definitely going to be sitting pretty and could even use another 50 mile "adjustment" west to maximize QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Big thanks to Tom and others for all the euro updates on the fly. This place rocks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It is really encouraging that this is not the first big Euro run. Last night was good, today is great. Two in a row. Need to make it three tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I feel like dancing. Euro showing more snow after the first? Could NYC asked for a better solution? Some guy in the New England thread said QPF went from 0.75" in E PA to 2"+ NYC east...not sure how accurate it is though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 10-15" in Philly, up to 20" @ the Shore if the euro were correct, assuming reasonable ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Some guy in the New England thread said QPF went from 0.75" in E PA to 2"+ NYC east...not sure how accurate it is though... Yeah, that's about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 My question is roughly how big a shift was this from the previous run? Are we talking a hundred miles or more? I know it was already showing a good hit for eastern areas I think the only people who can mix in this storm would be extreme eastern LI as in the Twin Forks/Montauk. We start with cold 850s and the track is a bit of a hook which locks in more northerly flow over the region. NYC and NW suburbs are definitely going to be sitting pretty and could even use another 50 mile "adjustment" west to maximize QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The favorable trending is happening exactly when we want it, in the < D 4 range. With the 50-50 low and the blocked up pattern downstream, the significant slowly/stalling of the Euro solution is not impossible. We've done a complete 360 in the model world, with solutions essentially returning to the way they were 2-3 days ago. I'd say it's time to get pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Some guy in the New England thread said QPF went from 0.75" in E PA to 2"+ NYC east...not sure how accurate it is though... the 1" line is essentially the NJ/PA border to Easton, SW to Lancaster, 1.5" is White Plains to Cherry Hill, 2" grazes LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 the 1" line is essentially the NJ/PA border to Easton, SW to Lancaster, 1.5" is White Plains to Cherry Hill, 2" grazes LI. Yea, I read that too. I'm speechless the 1" mark has gotten to Easton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think the only people who can mix in this storm would be extreme eastern LI as in the Twin Forks/Montauk. We start with cold 850s and the track is a bit of a hook which locks in more northerly flow over the region. NYC and NW suburbs are definitely going to be sitting pretty and could even use another 50 mile "adjustment" west to maximize QPF. Does this look very close to what the GFS had a few days ago, the run we were going looney over? The one with the storm stalling over us for 2-3 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 the 1" line is essentially the NJ/PA border to Easton, SW to Lancaster, 1.5" is White Plains to Cherry Hill, 2" grazes LI. The east end of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Preciep 12z euro rough esitmate off my sv maps...tombo will have a map shortly hr 108 DCA-.50+ BWI-.50+ PHL-.1.25 NYC 1.50+ BOS 1.50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This probably will come a bit west-- hopefully not more than 50 miles though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Does this look very close to what the GFS had a few days ago, the run we were going looney over? The one with the storm stalling over us for 2-3 days lol. Yes sir. H5 closes off south of LI and the entire thing gets captured and retrogrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yea, I read that too. I'm speechless the 1" mark has gotten to Easton. Hopefully the trend is for real. Hard to believe at this time yesterday that the EURO had a weak wave sliding out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The favorable trending is happening exactly when we want it, in the < D 4 range. With the 50-50 low and the blocked up pattern downstream, the significant slowly/stalling of the Euro solution is not impossible. We've done a complete 360 in the model world, with solutions essentially returning to the way they were 2-3 days ago. I'd say it's time to get pumped. I agree Isotherm have to let the player exit and take the field when guidance is so erradic. Id expect more consistency now and by tomorrow we'll all be worrying about mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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