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December 18-20 Talking Points - Part 2


am19psu

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Big WIN/WIN for us!  I told you guys to keep the faith, the models no nothing until that SW comes onshore and now it has :)  the 0z models tonight should be the clincher-- but we look GREAT right now for a snowstorm to rival the one we had on the same date last year! :)

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IF You live in or west of NYC DO NOT WORRY ABOUT PRECIP. We want this as far west as we can get it...

Maybe E LI/SE NE has a worry.

Im going to use the Millenium storm as an analog-- as long as the storm center stays at or east of Islip we're fine.

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Im going to use the Millenium storm as an analog-- as long as the storm center stays at or east of Islip we're fine.

I think the only people who can mix in this storm would be extreme eastern LI as in the Twin Forks/Montauk. We start with cold 850s and the track is a bit of a hook which locks in more northerly flow over the region. NYC and NW suburbs are definitely going to be sitting pretty and could even use another 50 mile "adjustment" west to maximize QPF.

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My question is roughly how big a shift was this from the previous run? Are we talking a hundred miles or more? I know it was already showing a good hit for eastern areas

I think the only people who can mix in this storm would be extreme eastern LI as in the Twin Forks/Montauk. We start with cold 850s and the track is a bit of a hook which locks in more northerly flow over the region. NYC and NW suburbs are definitely going to be sitting pretty and could even use another 50 mile "adjustment" west to maximize QPF.

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The favorable trending is happening exactly when we want it, in the < D 4 range. With the 50-50 low and the blocked up pattern downstream, the significant slowly/stalling of the Euro solution is not impossible. We've done a complete 360 in the model world, with solutions essentially returning to the way they were 2-3 days ago. I'd say it's time to get pumped. :snowman:

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Some guy in the New England thread said QPF went from 0.75" in E PA to 2"+ NYC east...not sure how accurate it is though...

the 1" line is essentially the NJ/PA border to Easton, SW to Lancaster, 1.5" is White Plains to Cherry Hill, 2" grazes LI.

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I think the only people who can mix in this storm would be extreme eastern LI as in the Twin Forks/Montauk. We start with cold 850s and the track is a bit of a hook which locks in more northerly flow over the region. NYC and NW suburbs are definitely going to be sitting pretty and could even use another 50 mile "adjustment" west to maximize QPF.

Does this look very close to what the GFS had a few days ago, the run we were going looney over?  The one with the storm stalling over us for 2-3 days lol.

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The favorable trending is happening exactly when we want it, in the < D 4 range. With the 50-50 low and the blocked up pattern downstream, the significant slowly/stalling of the Euro solution is not impossible. We've done a complete 360 in the model world, with solutions essentially returning to the way they were 2-3 days ago. I'd say it's time to get pumped. :snowman:

I agree Isotherm have to let the player exit and take the field when guidance is so erradic. Id expect more consistency now and by tomorrow we'll all be worrying about mixing.

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