earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Probably more productive to take a little off that QPF for a variety of reasons going out that far. I only did that as the max QPF (it's a mean, too) since a few of the members definitely have a retrograde type deal with light snow. The Euro had it snowing through 138 hrs last night. Regardless it's probably close to 0.5 for the city before the light snow begins w/ the retrograde. The MSLP Spaghetti plots show the OP falls pretty much right in line with the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hopefully the Euro can confirm in the next hour, and we can start locking in at least a notable snow event for most of the area. Most likely, Long Island gets the very high totals due to the low stalling and looping, but people west of the city can hopefully at least get in on heavier stuff as the low loops around. GFS and GGEM likely have at least warning level snow for the City east, and probably a foot or more from the Sagtikos east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Mod stuff gets all the way back here too! Wow. This is tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hopefully the Euro can confirm in the next hour, and we can start locking in at least a notable snow event for most of the area. Most likely, Long Island gets the very high totals due to the low stalling and looping, but people west of the city can hopefully at least get in on heavier stuff as the low loops around. GFS and GGEM likely have at least warning level snow for the City east, and probably a foot or more from the Sagtikos east. Be dealing with some very, very tight gradients. As in, you go 5 - 10 miles east of the delaware river you can see 3 - 5 inches; whereas 5 - 10 miles west of the delware a trace - 1". I'm just using prime examples; not necesasrily related to this particular storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I really want to get excited right now but something tells me we should wait till the 12z euro to come out before we can call this a legitimate trend to a more nw track. A track like the 00z euro on the 12z euro would really go a long way in atleast establishing a trend. Sorry if I'm a debby downer I love snow but trying to realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I really want to get excited right now but something tells me we should wait till the 12z euro to come out before we can call this a legitimate trend to a more nw track. A track like the 00z euro on the 12z euro would really go a long way in atleast establishing a trend. Sorry if I'm a debby downer I love snow but trying to realistic You can have your minor doubts, but theres no real reason to be a debbie downer especially when it comes to a winter storm - they are just too damn unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 animated ggem.....pretty sexy http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think this is a pretty good place to be on an 84 hour prog. Obviously there's still a whole lot up in the air about what's going to happen after this. The guidance has been extremely inconsistent with the northern stream, but it seems one thing is happening now. All the models are trending further west with the Polar Vortex. This is probably why we saw the solutions get worse before they got better...as there is no "in between" and the PV would otherwise flatten things. Throw in a weaker southern stream vort yesterday and you have your very flat solutions. There is some hope for this to come west--considering we're still 84 hours out from the heart of the storm itself. It wouldn't totally surprise me. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2010121612/I_nw_g1_EST_2010121612_084.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 You can have your minor doubts, but theres no real reason to be a debbie downer especially when it comes to a winter storm - they are just too damn unpredictable. Yea very unpredictable it amazes me that with all the forecast technology today its still a challenge sometimes to forecast a winter storm 48 hours or less with decent accuracy. Example this storm, more time till the arrival though but the models lately PV, the sw shortwave are all factors that are skewing an accurate forecast right now from them or established trend, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think this is a pretty good place to be on an 84 hour prog. Obviously there's still a whole lot up in the air about what's going to happen after this. The guidance has been extremely inconsistent with the northern stream, but it seems one thing is happening now. All the models are trending further west with the Polar Vortex. This is probably why we saw the solutions get worse before they got better...as there is no "in between" and the PV would otherwise flatten things. Throw in a weaker southern stream vort yesterday and you have your very flat solutions. There is some hope for this to come west--considering we're still 84 hours out from the heart of the storm itself. It wouldn't totally surprise me. http://collaboration...0121612_084.png Most of the times the runs are locked a few days out to give a good hit and it winds up OTS or a inland runner. This might be an exception this time. All the fun of the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM 66 - 1 Looks like 0.5 (+) NJ/NYC metro and a lot more north and east after conversions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 animated ggem.....pretty sexy http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Probably an 18 hour storm for NYC and points east and obviously high snow totals, but still nothing like what New England gets. Hopefully this can close off a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's also important to note the trend for further west trough axis thanks to this PV retrograde, and also note the faster timing of the shortwave over Montana extending down towards the Plains. If this feature speeds up by a few more hours, it's going to tug the coastal low west faster. The ultimate track won't be further west to our north (aka over Southern New England, the surface low won't tuck inland there), but the faster phase will cause an earlier cyclonic development and bring precipitation 50-100 miles further west. This is certainly encouraging but it can't stop here. We need just a little bit more, we're almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Probably an 18 hour storm for NYC and points east and obviously high snow totals, but still nothing like what New England gets. Hopefully this can close off a little further south. Agree...but at this point i will take what i can get......i just want some accumlating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Have the individual ensemble members for the GFS come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is pretty darn close though for being a major hit for the nyc metropolitan area PV retrogrades to west more and this storm is going to clobber a lot of people in NYC east and conneticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Me too. by the way did you get that heavier snow shower around 11 last night? it must have lasted 10 minutes but it covered the ground pretty quickly. Agree...but at this point i will take what i can get......i just want some accumlating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Me too. by the way did you get that heavier snow shower around 11 last night? it must have lasted 10 minutes but it covered the ground pretty quickly. I missed out on it.....my friend text me and said he was salting near belle meads and northern middlesex county.........it seem like ur area was the cutoff....i spot salted in holmdel this morning as they got a dusting last night also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Here is the GFS ensemble Mean. NYC is close to the .75" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'll ask the obvious question, not a direct IMBY question, but since its part of the regional - how is this looking for PHILLY and immediate suburbs? how close are we/or what do we need? Also hope this works out for nyc north and east, you guys deserve it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ensembles at 84 and 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What time does the Euro kick off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What time does the Euro kick off? 10-15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'll ask the obvious question, not a direct IMBY question, but since its part of the regional - how is this looking for PHILLY and immediate suburbs? how close are we/or what do we need? Also hope this works out for nyc north and east, you guys deserve it! Coastal areas around NYC and SNE have the best shot at the heaviest snows. Philly could see a few inches though if this trends further west. Still 90hrs out, plenty of time for surprises and disappointments. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'll ask the obvious question, not a direct IMBY question, but since its part of the regional - how is this looking for PHILLY and immediate suburbs? how close are we/or what do we need? Also hope this works out for nyc north and east, you guys deserve it! You guys need a bigger trend but it's not overly hard to attain...but you are def. running out of time. Give it another cycle or two of model guidance. Look for a quicker phase with the northern stream piece of energy over the Plains, and/or a stronger southern stream shortwave and the PV further west. That would cause quicker coastal cyclogenesis and develop the precipitation in the cold sector faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 There are 5 or 6 ensemble members that are further northwest than the OP GFS 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Coastal areas around NYC and SNE have the best shot at the heaviest snows. Philly could see a few inches though if this trends further west. Still 90hrs out, plenty of time for surprises and disappointments. haha You guys need a bigger trend but it's not overly hard to attain...but you are def. running out of time. Give it another cycle or two of model guidance. Look for a quicker phase with the northern stream piece of energy over the Plains, and/or a stronger southern stream shortwave and the PV further west. That would cause quicker coastal cyclogenesis and develop the precipitation in the cold sector faster. awesome, thanks guys! I'll take a few inches any day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ensembles at 84 and 96. Those look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 There are 5 or 6 ensemble members that are further northwest than the OP GFS 12z. We are *SO* close. COME ON EURO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 euro has just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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