tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS is so similar to the Euro, it's quite scary. Similar qpf output, and track. The closer we get to the event, the more players are going to be on the field to get the models consistent. One question: What factor was involved in the Euro's shift? id say stronger southern s/w and the pv displacement further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ukmet is smelling the euro to http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C1=pmsl while the UKMET likely fringes NYC a la 00z euro and 12z gfs you can see it getting tugged up north in the last frame and it looks like it wants to make a due north turn, maybe with a slight easterly component initially but that would put it within 30-40 miles of the BM...so far only good trends today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 id say stronger southern s/w and the pv displacement further west. Oh cool, I thought there was some other unknown development, but all the models so far today plus the 00z euro are latching on to this stronger and slower s/w idea, giving time for the storm to push north and obviously west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM is way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM is way west how far west...precip? etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM looks good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 gem way further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ukmet is smelling the euro to Couldn't get much closer to GFS low position at 72 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 from those stupid maps GGEM looks like a hit for coastal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If these west shifts continue I wouldn't be surprised to see mixing become an issue for LI and extreme SNE. With this type of setup (no real Canadian H) and a Miller A, the layer will warm pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM looks good: its about to close off at 500 too look for some decent to good precip in the next frame...this looks to be the most west but that could just be because of the metric system and me being too lazy to convert yet. Either way it def gets 10mm into the south shore of LI which is about .4 in so not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM IS A HIT...MILES AWAY FROM NAILING NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Whoa. GGEM just reinforced last night's run by the Euro. Every single model has progressed West with the storm. I think this is the farthest the gem has come west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This looks like one of those 3-6 deals for the city with a foot on the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Assuming the west trend continues, and looking at the GGEM ( know, it's the GGEM), your concern might be valid. However, the counter to that is the slower movement and intensity, in general terms. Mixing could certainly be an issue for ELI though. All options are still on the table. If these west shifts continue I wouldn't be surprised to see mixing become an issue for LI and extreme SNE. With this type of setup (no real Canadian H) and a Miller A, the layer will warm pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 We just need some more westward trending from here to really be in great shape. Road trip to the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 One bit of optimism in this situation is that in recent experience when models lose a storm and then bring it back the trend often doesn't stop there, some may call this anecdotal which is fine but I doubt the trend stops here, I'd say NYC for sure and poss PHL can still get a SECS out of this. The models have been so inconsistent it is mind boggling, so in all honestly who the hell knows what'll eventually transpire. Wasn't this last year's mantra: The models lose the storm in the 3.5 to 4.5 day time, then bring it back in a big way. I seem to remember this a couple of times last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 gfs ens are further west than 6z, the spread again looks big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEm 72hout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Road trip to the cape? Won't need one...by the time we're within 24 hours the Cape will probably have mixing issues (serious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Won't need one...by the time we're within 24 hours the Cape will probably have mixing issues (serious) I dont always drink the gfs....but when the euro shows it i do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM nice hit for NYC. Close to 10mm (0.4 inches) on the 84 hr panel and solidly within it on the next panel. That's at least 0.8 inches liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 sarcus its out to 84 in color, which looks great, and for some reason 96 is taking a long time in b and w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GEFS means are very robustly signaling a west trend. 0.75" QPF west of the city by 150 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow. This is tremendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The H5 low is back to being closed off south of Long Island. If any semblance of these trends carries over over the next day or so and comes to fruition, this probably winds up being a significant snowstorm from NYC to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GEFS means are very robustly signaling a west trend. 0.75" QPF west of the city by 150 hrs Do you have a link to that Earthlight? And 150? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 guesstimate based on B and W up to 96... West of NYC <0.5 NYC-0.6-0.7 Nassau cty-0.7-1.0 (more south and east) Sufflok-1.0-1.5+ (esp east end) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow. These trends are very encouraging. still time for this to get better for nyc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Do you have a link to that Earthlight? And 150? Storm Vista..and yes 150 since some of the models have light snow with the retrograde here for days. Figured I might as well tally it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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