December 18-20 Talking Points - Part 2

[Riptide]

I was expecting a dry scenario while waiting for the NCEP images to load. Though, I was pleasantly surprised because the NJ coast receives around .50" of QPF.

Some of the analysis in this thread could be improved.

[bluehens]

What is it going to take or what do we need to see on the models to pull this thing in closer so that PHL sees some plowable?

It's going to miss PHL and NYC, but shortwave is way more amplified on Sunday compared to 0z

[blazess556]

Looks like a miller b follows after this storm

[IsentropicLift]

Looks here like it want's to completely phase with the PV, maybe just a hair to late for the NYC area although is a vast improvement from the prior runs. You could even make an argument that the surface reflection is displaced further east than it should be.

[am19psu]

If a met could chime in...is there time for this to improve for our area? It has come 300 miles further west in one run from both the euro and gfs.......

There is plenty of time. If there is a bit more ridging out in front on this run, the shortwave rides up a bit farther inland, PHL and NYC would get clobbered.

[Kaner587]

if by miss you mean .25 with precip still falling then thats fine...I call a miss 0 precip at this point.

[Saturn510]

Its really amazing that 12 hour timing difference can change things dramatically .

[Ridingtime]

This is one of the most schizo storms I have ever tracked.

[rossi]

What is it going to take or what do we need to see on the models to pull this thing in closer so that PHL sees some plowable?

Now that the systems are on land all the models will be better able to understand whats going to happen. There should be consensus by Oz.

Rossi

[tombo82685]

just comparing the euro to the gfs, it looks like the euro still has a stronger southern stream on the 0z. So in the next couple runs if we can get a stronger s outhern stream while keeping the northern stream depiction right this could come back west.

[bluehens]

So essentially we're back to the idea of needing a stronger southern s/w here? That seems to be the theme.

There is plenty of time. If there is a bit more ridging out in front on this run, the shortwave rides up a bit farther inland, PHL and NYC would get clobbered.

[Allsnow]

There is plenty of time. If there is a bit more ridging out in front on this run, the shortwave rides up a bit farther inland, PHL and NYC would get clobbered.

Thanks....you have been very helpful the last few days....glad to see u post more

[Kaner587]

so it appears the king hasn't been dethroned, only this time to our benefit lol

[NJwinter23]

It looks like the 2 pieces of vorticity in question, including the one that dives down the back side of our "southern stream shortwave" and energizes this thing at the last minute, initialized offshore stil.

I must say the biggest surprise in a long time was waking up and seeing the 00z euro bring the big storm back just offshore. I really couldn't believe my eyes after all the consecutive runs and every other model seemingly bowing down and shifting east towards it. As usual though, it just seems like a step/run ahead.

[mahk_webstah]

Hoping for a west trend as I will be in NYC. The next Euro should give a good indication as to whether this trend will continue.

[Zir0b]

excellent trends...with the slowing of the southern stream we're still 72-84 hours out...and we all know how much things can still change within this timeframe...looking forward to the Euro

[bluehens]

Not for nothing here but if the Euro keeps coming west along with the GFS then I'd consider that a big win for the GFS overall. It would have consistently in the mid-range showed this exact scenario while the Euro was consistently OTS......only over the prior 24 hours did the GFS blip and back off and it was the Euro that came around to the original GFS ideas.

[Zir0b]

I'd feel pretty good right now if I was in SNE/E LI, but there is still plenty of time for us to make adjustments. I expect a further shift to a more west/amplified solution as the s/w should really get sampled on tonight's 0Z data.

[earthlight]

Storm is still at 84-90hrs

[chubbs]

Only 100 miles off at 84 hour. Gives us a shot.

[Kaner587]

One bit of optimism in this situation is that in recent experience when models lose a storm and then bring it back the trend often doesn't stop there, some may call this anecdotal which is fine but I doubt the trend stops here, I'd say NYC for sure and poss PHL can still get a SECS out of this. The models have been so inconsistent it is mind boggling, so in all honestly who the hell knows what'll eventually transpire.

[KEITH L.I]

more snow from clipper day 6

[Kaner587]

Storm is still at 84-90hrs

Earthlight what does your gut tell you now that both EURO and GFS brought it back, albeit slightly to east and late for most of us...

[bluehens]

I said this earlier and I'll say it again but even if the evolution here looks like its Miller A that precip maps screams Miller B. I mean it just sucks for PHL but look at that huge dry slot further west for folks in DC.

We just need some more westward trending from here to really be in great shape.

[Akeem the African Dream]

Looks like a miller b follows after this storm

Next weeks clipper?

[tombo82685]

ukmet is smelling the euro to

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2010121612&REGION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=850&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C1=pmsl

[bluehens]

Exact opposite for us on what we saw 2/6 earlier in the year. In that storm our area was at the far north end of the precip but we ended up with 2 feet. I can only pray for that to happen again and have this all shift 100 miles further west to get us in the good stuff.

Only 100 miles off at 84 hour. Gives us a shot.

[Manny]

GFS is so similar to the Euro, it's quite scary. Similar qpf output, and track. The closer we get to the event, the more players are going to be on the field to get the models consistent.

One question: What factor was involved in the Euro's shift?

[NorEaster27]

Storm is still at 84-90hrs

I think the big story is the slower movement of the storm, makes all the difference

[Isotherm]

Who cares what the models indicate verbatim right now, it's the trends that count, and at 78-84 hours, we're hardly done trending. As I said yesterday I wouldn't be surprised to see us back in the game for a significant to major snowfall. Rest of today's runs should be interesting. Clearly w/ the latest data models are sensing a stronger southern stream short wave and also pumping the heights more immediately ahead of it. As a result we see the negatively tilted trough and the GFS suggests we close off at H5 somewhere east of NJ. If this occurs a bit faster, like the close off it was demonstrating near the Delmarva a few days ago, anyone along the I-95 is back in the game for big snows.