psv88 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NWS for nassau county Saturday Night: A chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and blustery, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday: A chance of snow. Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and blustery, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looking increasingly like a hit for LI/SNE but those in NJ/NYC need to watch for the infamous west trend. Im hoping this sisnt like 07/08 witht the near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Probably going to still be a miss as far as this local area is concerned. Might get Long Island. That being said..significant changes since 06z and 00z..way more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks better...still think this is better for NJ, LI, SNE overall and I'm doubtful we get a true phase bomb...those are more likely on paper than in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Light snow back to the city at 81 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Still have some time...that was 75 miles more amped and further west with the height field. I like what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yes, me too, and remember this is the NAM at 84 hrs., yet it looks more like the EC than any other model at this point as far as I know. Still have some time...that was 75 miles more amped and further west with the height field. I like what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Still plenty of time to establish a trend, especially since we don't need a heck of a lot, particularly from the NJ shore on NE. Eastern NE has to be getting excited right now, and hopefully we can get some more wiggle room to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Still have some time...that was 75 miles more amped and further west with the height field. I like what I see. I agree and think at the least guidance should hone in and be more consistent with each runs forecast. We have better data now and the first shortwave system will be leaving the field later as well. While O doubt we'll see a significant event NYC south to NJ, I think a moderate event remains in the cards and LI/SNE are in great shape. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I would almost like to think that H500 depiction implies surface reflection should be slightly more west than it is shown. Also, plenty of room to come further west, overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Still have some time...that was 75 miles more amped and further west with the height field. I like what I see. Still some time, but this run isn't THAT much better. It looks very close in the end. We'll need several more adjustments west for anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Still plenty of time to establish a trend, especially since we don't need a heck of a lot, particularly from the NJ shore on NE. Eastern NE has to be getting excited right now, and hopefully we can get some more wiggle room to the SW. Seems like the timing is getting pushed back, the slower the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Does anyone remember exactly when the models began to catch on to the low being so far northwest with the event in the Great Lakes last week? I know it's a completely different situation, but maybe, just maybe, we'll see that happen the trend. All I can say is, I'd much rather have the Euro on my side than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Heck of a lot better than 6z....at this point places sw of NYC are really out of the game, SNE is going to get hit big time and NYC is on the fence. The NAM looks very similar to the euro: big hit for Boston, close to a hit for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Heck of a lot better than 6z....at this point places sw of NYC are really out of the game, SNE is going to get hit big time and NYC is on the fence. The NAM looks very similar to the euro: big hit for Boston, close to a hit for NYC 50-100 mile shift west and most of NJ is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Heck of a lot better than 6z....at this point places sw of NYC are really out of the game, SNE is going to get hit big time and NYC is on the fence. The NAM looks very similar to the euro: big hit for Boston, close to a hit for NYC NAM appears to be a total miss for NYC and a scrape for far eastern SNE. Not sure what model you are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Use caution, just because the Euro jumped on board remember its only one run and the models have been anything but consistent. Hopefully we get status quo or better with the 12Z Euro run but I wouldn't be suprised if it went OTS again considering that the 00Z ensemble mean was way east of the op. Next two runs are very critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM appears to be a total miss for NYC and a scrape for far eastern SNE. Not sure what model you are looking at. NAM is a total miss for NYC itself, but I think the NAM would probably be a pretty big hit for S NE. 6"+ for most of SE New England (including Providence & Boston) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM appears to be a total miss for NYC and a scrape for far eastern SNE. Not sure what model you are looking at. I'm really having a difficult time seeing the differences between the 6z and 12z runs when I flip between T+78 at 12z and T+84 at 6z. The deformation zone is a bit better at 12z, but otherwise, nothing to significant to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm really having a difficult time seeing the differences between the 6z and 12z runs when I flip between T+78 at 12z and T+84 at 6z. The deformation zone is a bit better at 12z, but otherwise, nothing to significant to my eyes. it might just be a coincidence that it LOOKS further west because of the better developed deform zone but I agree except for the low being slightly stronger and further north at the same longitude (maybe 50 miles) not much of a shift in track west, but 500mb looked better earlier on so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 From what I've read (not sure who posted it), doesn't the NAM tend to under do precip in the NW quadrant? Or is this just some garbage that I picked up last night that needs to brought the curb now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm really having a difficult time seeing the differences between the 6z and 12z runs when I flip between T+78 at 12z and T+84 at 6z. The deformation zone is a bit better at 12z, but otherwise, nothing to significant to my eyes. "Look up, my friend." I agree with you as far as the surface depiction goes. However, look aloft. Both the 300mb and 500mb seem to have shifted west, the 500mb vortex seems to have trended more amplified and further west. The 200mb jet streak is certainly more favorable for the 12z than the 6z; a more negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOW~DAZE Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hi All, can anyone post the approx timing of this storm (if it hits?). I'm just wondering if it will mess with the Eagles @ Giants Sunday 1 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 "Look up, my friend." I agree with you as far as the surface depiction goes. However, look aloft. Both the 300mb and 500mb seem to have shifted west, the 500mb vortex seems to have trended more amplified and further west. The 200mb jet streak is certainly more favorable for the 12z than the 6z; a more negative tilt. Nope, I mean at the surface and 500mb. It doesn't have that weird kink over the Delmarva in the 12z run, which is helping the better deformation zone, but otherwise is basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The trough on the 12Z nam looks more amplified. Considering how small of a **** it would take on the NAM to bring precip into the NYC are I would say we still have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 From what I've read (not sure who posted it), doesn't the NAM tend to under do precip in the NW quadrant? Or is this just some garbage that I picked up last night that needs to brought the curb now? It does to an extent, its usually more that its too compacted with the precip fields on the NW side...sometimes this is correct like the 2/6 event last winter....but often it is wrong if you don't have a huge arctic high with dry air in place or major confluence north or NW of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ok..that makes perfect sense; thanks for the explanation. Unfortunately, recalling 2/6/10 helps me analytically, but certainly not emotionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 unless the 12z GFS comes 300 miles west, the 0z euro was probably a blip. It needs to show some sort of significant movement...last year when the 12Z Euro suddenly came west on the 17th, the 12Z NAM and GFS before it were a big miss, but the ensuing 18Z GFS and then the 00Z quickly became a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What happened, now that the euro shows a big shift west it's all of a sudden not the king anymore? Now it's wrong? Wait at least till the 12z run of the euro is out before downplaying it. sundog the problem is that as good as the euro is, it sometimes has these "blip" runs we've been talking about where it has one solution for a long time, and then all the sudden has something completely different, only to switch back right after. Could it be onto something? Of course, but until it shows consistency the prudent move is to assume it was a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 can we not talk about model trends in here anymore? why were the last few posts deleted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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