Quincy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Frankly, I was very surprised by the 00z ECMWF this morning...If anything, I still believe it's a blip, but 12z runs will be very telling. If all of the models are dancing around a solution, I would still like to lean towards the ECMWF overall trend. 12z WED looked possibly too far east and then 00z THU adjusted likely too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HPC throwing out the 0z EURO solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 If you look at the spag charts for the Euro ensemble, the ops is on the western edge of the spread with only about 10-15% of members showing farther west solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 JB says don't panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I went to sleep early for once basically giving up, I had a funny feeling the Euro was going to come west but not THAT far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Its gotta be a blip run...I want it to verify so badly but just don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HPC throwing out the 0z EURO solution Everyone should, unless it happens again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Its gotta be a blip run...I want it to verify so badly but just don't see that happening. Looks like the EURO gives EWR about .22 or so Equivalent...but over a very long period so Im not sure it would really accumalate to anything more than an inch or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So since the entire last 7 pages are basically NYC-centric I can assume that everyone south of there gets majorly screwed by what the Euro depicted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Everyone should, unless it happens again at 12z. Given how consistent its been as a miss I would not buy a sudden run like that, especially with every other model being a massive miss....only 2 of the 12 06Z GFS ensembles give snow to ANY part of the NYC region...this includes E CT and E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Everyone should, unless it happens again at 12z. it's definitely a red flag because the pattern would support an east coast storm if the upper levels cooperate (pv splitting etc). So it makes sense given the pattern but given the trends and how EVERY other model is basically a miss there is no reason to jump on this 1 run of the EURO unless it holds steady at 12z then we can start wondering if it sees something the other models are missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Given how consistent its been as a miss I would not buy a sudden run like that, especially with every other model being a massive miss. beat me to it....agree wholeheartedly. We still have a shot, just a tiny minuscule one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The Euro does things to us. It's horrible. At least the 00z run gave us some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't know if anyone agrees me though, but todays 12z model run and on would determine if the 00z euro was a blip run or if it was on to something correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't know if anyone agrees me though, but todays 12z model run and on would determine if the 00z euro was a blip run or if it was on to something correct? If the 12Z NAM and GFS were hits its probably about 99% the 12Z Euro would be a hit....I'd be surprised if after that Euro run that if the 2 main American models followed the Euro would not repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The Euro does things to us. It's horrible. At least the 00z run gave us some hope. False hope, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM at 12z 18h looks like it is digging more with the sw in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 No substantial changes on the NAM through 48. Should be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I disagree. There seems to be a better chance of a phase. The energy is already showing this possibility at 48 hrs. Look at 500mb. Stronger energy diving down. May not happen, but better than the previous run. No substantial changes on the NAM through 48. Should be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This run looks a good bit more amplified in the east at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Actually gets some very light precip into the Southern Appalachians at 60 hrs. on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Definitely a more pronounced piece of energy over NE/KS at hr 54 which is digging in. It might not be enough for a hit this time but it's a large step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This run looks a good bit more amplified in the east at 48 Yeah its pretty obvious at h48.. May be nothing or maybe on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 No substantial changes on the NAM through 48. Should be a miss. Check again. Much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Definitely a more pronounced piece of energy over NE/KS at hr 54 which is digging in. It might not be enough for a hit this time but it's a large step in the right direction. It's most likely coming west...look how much more amplified the height field is on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Seems to me guidance slowed down a bit with the coastal forming, a trend since yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wont be a big hit, but not a deal-killer. Main piece of the PV needs to retrograde a bit more west and/or get our system to phase to pull it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Seems to me guidance slowed down a bit with the coastal forming, a trend since yesterday I would think thats a good thing allowing for more of a phase.. It does look alot more amplified in the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Check again. Much improved. Reverse psychology. You guys can thank me for the improved run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is really a much better run. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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