Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM slightly more amped at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 looking at 42 nam might be huge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Better at 48 more amplification, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If I am HPC, I would put a low 4 inch risk for Cape Cod for the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If I am HPC, I would put a low 4 inch risk for Cape Cod for the first storm. is that one trending NW too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like GFS is going to be better for us this run than the last - hard for it to be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 is that one trending NW too? Not necessarily, just that the 06Z NAM indicated the possibility of some moisture being thrown back at Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ugh....that is absolutely HORRIBLE! How can Central PA keep getting shut out of major synoptic events? Hopefully this thing tracks much closer to the coast than what is depicted, or the gradient loosens up. This is the Euro QPF through 162 hrs almost to the exact pixel as I see it on the SV maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 6z GFS Still out to sea, but it is more amplified. Surely better than 0z but not anywhere near where we need it. Goodnight folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looks like GFS is going to be better for us this run than the last - hard for it to be worse. In the words of Bob Ueker in Major League, "juuust a bit outside". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Omg is that really better? Looks like it wants to hit Bermuda again lol. Is it worth it to stay up for the GFS ensembles? When are they coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Omg is that really better? Looks like it wants to hit Bermuda again lol. Is it worth it to stay up for the GFS ensembles? When are they coming out? Yeah it is better, sadly. I'm going to sleep probably not worth the wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah it is better, sadly. I'm going to sleep probably not worth the wait. Sleep well-- hopefully we'll have better news during the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I agree on all counts... it's bad. Ugh....that is absolutely HORRIBLE! How can Central PA keep getting shut out of major synoptic events? Hopefully this thing tracks much closer to the coast than what is depicted, or the gradient loosens up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Obviously the way the GFS has been flip flopping there is a better then even chance it will come west again. Also if we can get the low pressure system north of the great lakes to weaken there will be a better chance ................High pressure north is also not in the greatest location ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Man, the 06z NAM was really close to bringing the storm up the coast given it's H5 depiction at 60 hrs compared to last nights 00z. 12z today is probably a breaking point as far as the last trend with this system. We will know much more this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Man, the 06z NAM was really close to bringing the storm up the coast given it's H5 depiction at 60 hrs compared to last nights 00z. 12z today is probably a breaking point as far as the last trend with this system. We will know much more this afternoon. I'm not a model guy, but I'm not entirely sure the southern stream s/w got sampled at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm honestly at a loss for words on the EURO. I went to sleep and wake up to this, after looking at 6z NAM and GFS and now the EURO pulls me right back in. Watch this is one time it'll be wrong like that burp run where it developed a secondary that buried us on the backside of the Dec 11-13 storm. Model insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Man, the 06z NAM was really close to bringing the storm up the coast given it's H5 depiction at 60 hrs compared to last nights 00z. 12z today is probably a breaking point as far as the last trend with this system. We will know much more this afternoon. This definitely looks better for those in NJ, NY Metro, and LI than it does for those in Philly and points west unless there's some major change in model thinking today. Things can change but the gradient and overall (not run-to-run) trend with the low development and track are leaning against a rapid phasing. The Euro's best case scenario is glancing folks with snow and the gradient is super tight...anyone in that .25-1" zone could overperform or bust depending on where the snow shield sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I have come to the conclusion that these model makers just love to screw with us.(lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 wake me up saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 wake me up saturday sunday morning FIFY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 wake me up saturday morning whats the timining on the Euro, pushed back now to sunday afternoon / night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Today is gonna be a day that if the euro was on to something last night after it was ots for 3 days may be some trends to a more nw solution may occur. Just speculation though but the euro showing a nice size snowstorm for the coast according to qpf looked kind of promising but today will be more telling starting at 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 FIFY. I was just saying I wanted to see only 24 hrs and in on the models..I'm finishing my finals today and the next 3 days are probably going to be filled with booze and will all be a blur, I will make all attempts to stay away from the models, lol, because god knows what'll happen if they keep mind f-ing us I'll probably throw my computer against a wall! But in all seriousness I would be happy with 2 inches at this point I just want to see a storm so I'm hoping for positive trends but I'm not expecting anything crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RkTec Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm not a model guy, but I'm not entirely sure the southern stream s/w got sampled at 12z. Yeah it seems that maybe it wasn't reading the Mt. Holly discussion: NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM. THE ECMWF AND GFS FLIPPED AS TO THE MOST WESTWARD AND EASTWARD SOLUTIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL COME IN BETTER RAOB COVERAGE ON THE 12Z RUN. THE ENFORCER THAT SET OFF THE NEGATIVE TILT TROF ON THE CURRENT ECMWF THOUGH WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT INTO BETTER RAOB COVERAGE UNTIL TONIGHT`S RUN. Area Forecast DIscussion NWS Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 These models always do this, it's their MO.. Ping a monster 7 days out... lose it at 5 days, and then slowly bring it back in, the infamous NW trend ... It's crazy and drives us crazy. It's nice to see the Euro coming back into play. At this point, anything can happen and things are starting to look better. IMO, 48hrs. is when things start to happen with the mods.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'm honestly at a loss for words on the EURO. I went to sleep and wake up to this, after looking at 6z NAM and GFS and now the EURO pulls me right back in. Watch this is one time it'll be wrong like that burp run where it developed a secondary that buried us on the backside of the Dec 11-13 storm. Model insanity Seriously. I woke up and checked the NAM and GFS quick and was like "Damn, this is over". Now I see that Euro QPF map and it looks like coastal sections have a shot. Does the Euro tuck the storm back toward the coast at the last minute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Seriously. I woke up and checked the NAM and GFS quick and was like "Damn, this is over". Now I see that Euro QPF map and it looks like coastal sections have a shot. Does the Euro tuck the storm back toward the coast at the last minute? huge thing it does is it splits the PV entirely which allows for a weakness and allows the trough to go completely negative and the storm gets captured and closes off. Some of the models were suggesting this possibility and if that does occur it has huge implications because literally a couple hours earlier than the euro suggests and this is back to being an SECS/MECS so unfortunately we have to continue to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 These models always do this, it's their MO.. Ping a monster 7 days out... lose it at 5 days, and then slowly bring it back in, the infamous NW trend ... It's crazy and drives us crazy. It's nice to see the Euro coming back into play. At this point, anything can happen and things are starting to look better. IMO, 48hrs. is when things start to happen with the mods.. I'm sorry but I can't remember anything like this. Most times the storm is still there it just hits southern areas or slides off the coast. For like 7 straight runs the EURO had basically NO storm, and the GGEM vacillated but 75% of its runs also had very little if any storm even for areas south and east. If this storm does happen for us it'll be one of the bigger model busts in recent memory. Doubt it will, but just throwing it out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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