Nikolai Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'll admit I was severely bummed at the GFS tonight, but the EURO has my spirits back. I've always thought the GFS would revert back to the snowy scenario, but today's vacillations were discouraging to say the least. With the EURO now onboard, I fully expect the GFS to come significantly further N&W, as the EURO should as well. In another 36 hours, many people here will be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 jfk is like .6 That doesnt make sense though-- how is NYC getting .50-.75 and JFK getting only .6 when JFK is 25 miles east of NYC? Furthermore, central long island is getting 1.00-1.25" It shouldnt dip in the middle and then go back up lol. Interpolating based on that JFK/western long island should be .75-1.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Hopefully the 12z Euro will show just that, what a great turnaround on the Euro tonight, right now it looks like I would be in the .25-.50 range on QPF possibly a little more. The earlier it blows up the better, and the further southwest it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 the gradient is tight its insane seriously. How much does Southern Westchester get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 That doesnt make sense though-- how is NYC getting .75-1.00 and JFK getting only .6 when JFK is 25 miles east of NYC? Furthermore, central long island is getting 1.25" It shouldnt dip in the middle and then go back up lol. Interpolating based on that JFK/western long island should be 1.00-1.25 relax im not even sure where jfk is, i thought it was right on the ocean just south of nyc, im not from the area...if thats the case then yes your closer to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 How much does Southern Westchester get? .5-.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 relax im not even sure where jfk is, i thought it was right on the ocean just south of nyc, im not from the area...if thats the case then yes your closer to 1 Haha, Im relaxed, just trying to figure out the gradient. JFK itself is southeast of NYC by about 20 miles and Im 5 miles east of there or about 25 miles southeast of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Something that can easily be accomplished, the 12z Euro tomorrow is going to be very interesting to say the least, very curious to see the Euro ensembles in an hour or so. This is a prime example of why people should never throw in the towel to early on a storm especially when it is still 3-4 days out. Literally 2-4 hrs faster with the caputure and we are all buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 images would be so helpful.....they would give poor Tombo a break. Just wanted to say thanks for the PBP. You don't get enough praise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Dr. No becomes Dr. Could Be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thank you very much Tombo for putting up with all the crap of all of us asking IMBY qpf questions, you are a good and patient man . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This doesnt really need to be that much further southwest to totally bury us lol. How many days of snowfall are we talking about? 2? Looks like the thing just stalls out lol. The crazy thing is that amazing run from the GFS a few days back might have been right after all lol. It gave us 2+ feet of snow. This is the kind of storm that can close off/pivot/loop-de-loop given the blocked flow upstream and the speed at which it will probably intensify over the ocean. It doesn't surprise me at all that this can produce major snow amounts where it pivots over, and it can last for over a day since it has nowhere to go but into a block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Haha, Im relaxed, just trying to figure out the gradient. JFK itself is southeast of NYC by about 20 miles and Im 5 miles east of there or about 25 miles southeast of NYC yea, then your closer to 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 images would be so helpful.....they would give poor Tombo a break. Just wanted to say thanks for the PBP. You don't get enough praise. Thank you very much Tombo for putting up with all the crap of all of us asking IMBY qpf questions, you are a good and patient man . no problem, i enjoy doing it for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 lol thanks TOMBO!! another question... what's the timing for this storm again?? sunday into monday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thanks for spreading the good news, Tombo. Considering the ratios, 6-10" would fall here based on the 0z ECM. I wish i could lock it in, but just an incredibly fragile set-up at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Thank you very much Tombo for putting up with all the crap of all of us asking IMBY qpf questions, you are a good and patient man . This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Like 2/6/10 except oriented east west instead of south north? i saw what will said about nyc qpf, my qpf total is at like hr 162 after all the little lgt flurries and snow showers and what not. Will's is prob more accurate but on my map nyc is in the .5-.75 region, with the city being closer to .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 lol thanks TOMBO!! another question... what's the timing for this storm again?? sunday into monday?? it has lgt precip in by sunday at 12z, so like 7am on sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The storm would probably begin Saturday night a couple of hours either side of midnight and continue through most of Sunday and possibly into Monday. lol thanks TOMBO!! another question... what's the timing for this storm again?? sunday into monday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 it has lgt precip in by sunday at 12z, so like 7am on sunday? Thanks appreciate, just wondering what it was showing for north jersey coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 im gonna do a map at hr 162 when all the lgt flurries and stuff are done, this is through paint and relly pixelated, but i just want to prove im not lying edit: john just confirmed what i was seeing that on our sv maps nyc is in the .5-.75...so no map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is the Euro QPF through 162 hrs almost to the exact pixel as I see it on the SV maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So the model that has been so consistent at showing a NON EVENT now is an event? Interesting! HPC not buying it either at this point and time... WHILE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED ALOFT CROSSINGTHE SOUTHEAST ALSO FORMS A SECONDARY LOW IN THE NORTHEASTGULF...BUT IT IS A LITTLE WEAKER AND PROGRESSIVE...BUT STILLRESULTS IN A NEARLY IDENTICAL SURFACE LOW DEPICTION AT 84 HRS.HOWEVER...ITS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE ATTRIBUTED TO THE RETROGRADINGCYCLONE CROSSING ONTARIO WHICH AIDS IN BUILDING A SHORTWAVE RIDGEOVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. GIVEN THAT THE ECMWF'S CYCLONE'SPOSITION CROSSING ONTARIO LIES NEAR THE FAST AND NORTHWEST EDGESOF AN INCREASINGLY LARGE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ITS SURFACE LOWPOSITION NEAR THE NC/SC COAST AT 84 HRS IS ALSO IN QUESTION.THUS...RECOMMEND DISCOUNTING THE NAM/ECMWF SURFACE LOW EVOLUTIONOFF THE SC/NC COAST AT 84 HRS AND USING AN INTERMEDIATE/CONSENSUSAPPROACH UNTIL THE EVENT NEARS AND THE ACCOMPANYING SOLUTIONSPREAD DIMINISHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is the Euro QPF through 162 hrs almost to the exact pixel as I see it on the SV maps For some reason the SV maps always look ridiculously juicy compared to the WSI maps. Take a look at the staff forum...definitely different than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 For some reason the SV maps always look ridiculously juicy compared to the WSI maps. Take a look at the staff forum...definitely different than that. Either way JFK looks like about 0.6-0.7 with some more room to trend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 For some reason the SV maps always look ridiculously juicy compared to the WSI maps. Take a look at the staff forum...definitely different than that. Yeah I saw them a few minutes ago. I'll take comfort in the fact that I am on the western edge of the CCB and get some decent snows..and go to bed happy. Long Island really does get smacked on this run. I'm just hoping this isn't one of the burp runs. On the other side of it..ooping through 06z to 00z NCEP/Globa lmodels today--it seems like they were all trending west with the PV and closer to dropping it in..but I guess it had to get way worse looking before it got better. We will see tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 For some reason the SV maps always look ridiculously juicy compared to the WSI maps. Take a look at the staff forum...definitely different than that. yea will i don't know why. I saw that you said nyc was like .25 and i thought i was hallucinating looking at my map. I wonder why its such a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 new sref's have alot of blue on the west side which means more member are leaning to a more west track good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah I saw them a few minutes ago. I'll take comfort in the fact that I am on the western edge of the CCB and get some decent snows..and go to bed happy. Long Island really does get smacked on this run. I'm just hoping this isn't one of the burp runs. On the other side of it..ooping through 06z to 00z NCEP/Globa lmodels today--it seems like they were all trending west with the PV and closer to dropping it in..but I guess it had to get way worse looking before it got better. We will see tomorrow. according to Nate, the cumulative precip map after 162 hrs shows about 1 inch qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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