mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 you folks see the 48 hr RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 you folks see the 48 hr RGEM? Out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looking at the major features on the H5 map for the time period in question, there's definitely room for more ridging along the SE US coast. East of the Rockies the map looks excellent, but the unfavorable Pacific could potentially ruin it. Note the 00z NAM valid 12z Sunday morning. We've got a beautiful wwd retrograding -NAO, 50-50 low east of Newfound, and the Polar Vortex also moving westward SW of Hudson's Bay throughout the SUN-MON period. This orientation is actually very good for east coast snows; usually if you see the PV sitting SE of Hudson's Bay it's game over for anything north of the Carolinas as its suppression city. However, the positioning depicted here is supportive a more negative tilt w/ the short wave. In addition, the 50-50 low to our NE argues for a bit more height rise along the EC. Will it be enough? I can't answer that question right now, but I certainly wouldn't write off an event this early. Look at tomorrow's system - the past few days we were lucky to see a model run bring snow north of NC, but now I wouldn't be surprised to see a period of light to moderate snow as far north as central NJ tomorrow night. The north trend did happen with tomorrow's wave, we just won't see the effects b/c it was so far south to begin with. Usually my recollection of Nina events plus climo should mean the SE ridge gets a bit stronger as we approach the event. The 12/19/10 event was progged SE until 48 hrs out, and we're double that amount of time right now (Day 4-4.5). But with that said there were notable differences w/ the dec event last year that may screw us this time around. As you'll see in the following maps, the H5 orientation looks conducive for the Atlantic/arctic, but the ridge out west is rather weak/flat and doesnt help our situation much. I can see this being a near miss out to sea but I also wouldn't be surprised to see modelling return to projections from a couple days ago. Bottom line it's too early to make a definitive call. I'm on the fence with this one; the features aren't all that bad (actually very good save for the lack of western ridging). Give it a bit more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 you folks see the 48 hr RGEM? Project for blocking and retrogression and maybe you've got something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Awesome writeup ISO. Top notch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Great writeup Isotherm. Looks like that low over Alaska is what's really screwing us over since it seems to be squashing any ridging in the West. Will the favorable Atlantic be enough to overcome that? We'll just have to wait and see. I think it's still too early to throw in the towel just yet, but the trends recently have certainly been discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The 00Z GFS isn't lookin' hot right now at all. The shortwave is barely there at hour 42... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The 00Z GFS isn't lookin' hot right now at all. The shortwave is barely there at hour 42... Yeah I agree....we would need to see improvements pretty much everywhere pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 hr 84 low 1008 about 200 miles se of hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Awesome writeup ISO. Top notch. Great writeup Isotherm. Looks like that low over Alaska is what's really screwing us over since it seems to be squashing any ridging in the West. Will the favorable Atlantic be enough to overcome that? We'll just have to wait and see. I think it's still too early to throw in the towel just yet. Thanks guys, let's hope we some some favorable trending over the next few days. Even if tonight's runs aren't too encouraging, I still wouldn't write it off. Too many favorable features on the playing field to let this go until Friday's runs IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I really feel we need to get a snowstorm shown on the euro inside 96 hrs........and what anyother model shows forget it........the euro pretty much reminded us how it is king...and no matter what computer score card you have, just burn it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 hr 108 the gfs has a 996 low about 500 miles east of boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The GFS and Nam aren't making too much of the southern stream energy tonight. I'll still wait until all the features are properly initialized, but if by tomorrow night's 0z runs they're still very weak with the southern stream, I don't see much possibility for a storm. Believe it or not the northern stream and PV look to be very cooperative, but with no energy to spin something up, nothing really can. If this was last year with an uber-amped up subtropical jet, the models would probably all be unanimous in showing a HECS right now (another thing which is maybe best avoided 84-120 hrs out). In short, it's a coin toss until the features are initialized properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 well Euro wins again..btw that I'm in a bad mood..WHAT"S THE SENSE OF RUNNING THE GFS>>UPGRADE OR NOT THE MODEL SUCKS..thanks for letting me get off my chest..goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I really feel we need to get a snowstorm shown on the euro inside 96 hrs........and what anyother model shows forget it........the euro pretty much reminded us how it is king...and no matter what computer score card you have, just burn it The Euro should be the only model taken with consideration.. Its truly amazing how great that model is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I really feel we need to get a snowstorm shown on the euro inside 96 hrs........and what anyother model shows forget it........the euro pretty much reminded us how it is king...and no matter what computer score card you have, just burn it Euro was the model that initially got us hooked on this threat. So if nothing pans out with this threat, I just hope people remember not to get excited about any model projection beyond 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i think next threat to track is the one right after this threat at hr 120, a lot of the ens have this coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The Euro is a pretty freaking good computer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Euro was the model that initially got us hooked on this threat. So if nothing pans out with this threat, I just hope people remember not to get excited about any model projection beyond 5 days. Tom it showed a hit once at 12z sunday...since then it has been ots on each and every run....it has varied up in sne with cape cod and boston...but pretty much has kept the same idea of no snow for i-95..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 i think next threat to track is the one right after this threat at hr 120, a lot of the ens have this coming through. Let me guess.... day 10 threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Let me guess.... day 10 threat? day 6 threat, next tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 possible miller b setup at 126 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 that clipper or whatever it holds potential, gfs has it which means nothing, gem has it, well 0z did, 12z sheared it out. Euro has it but it went south of us. The way i look at things as long as there is something to track, potential im happy. Granted i would love a hit, but imagine if this was just torch city and we had nothing. SO im happy we have things to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 lol, this would be a major hit if there's more separation between the incoming s/w and the PV over maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The PV actually is in a very favorable position. Looks like it tries to split which would be more in line with the very favorable 12/14 12Z GFS and some of todays earlier runs of the NAM. Today however with virtually no S/W you dont have the energy to even spin up a storm until its well offshore. Give it until 00z tomorrow when the feature is over this continent and its properly initialized by all the models. I will say though, you can't be happy with the fact that as oppose to yesterday, things don't seem as though they are slowly working towards a better solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 that clipper or whatever it holds potential, gfs has it which means nothing, gem has it, well 0z did, 12z sheared it out. Euro has it but it went south of us. The way i look at things as long as there is something to track, potential im happy. Granted i would love a hit, but imagine if this was just torch city and we had nothing. SO im happy we have things to track. the catch 22 is that you would want this weekend's wave to be as flat as possible, otherwise the PV will be too strong after phasing and crush any incoming shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 that clipper or whatever it holds potential, gfs has it which means nothing, gem has it, well 0z did, 12z sheared it out. Euro has it but it went south of us. The way i look at things as long as there is something to track, potential im happy. Granted i would love a hit, but imagine if this was just torch city and we had nothing. SO im happy we have things to track. funny..that's more of a Nina system..then this threat ever was..it's more believble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 the catch 22 is that you would want this weekend's wave to be as flat as possible, otherwise the PV will be too strong after phasing and crush any incoming shortwaves. Yeah exactly right, if NYC/LI is not going to get hit by this weekend event we want it to be about as complete of a miss and non-phase as possible to allow the next storm system to come more north....of course its always possible the system could wash out as it comes east and re-develop offshore too late....in that scenario we would want the first storm to be significant so that wave is forced south and reforms off NC instead of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I've been talking about the lack of an amplified ridge out west for days. It really is a big key, and one of the reasons why I've been saying a coastal storm is very unlikely for us. I want snow as much as everyone else, but I don't get my hopes up in a pattern like this. It requires great timing, which is a very slim chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 the catch 22 is that you would want this weekend's wave to be as flat as possible, otherwise the PV will be too strong after phasing and crush any incoming shortwaves. yes which is why im rooting for it to be flat as anything. storm 1 does not look like its going to happy, so if its just going to miss or what not lets make it a weak wave so it can help out storm 2...all the gfs ens that were bullish were the ones that had an ots storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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