ag3 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Color 96 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 108: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:41 PM, Noreaster85 said: The NAM is showing a split. I have a great feeling about the NAM and last year it performed very well. Hmm I dunno. The NAM last year was good short range but I've never been keen on trusting it long range. Again, it's the only model showing a split now too. The GGEM just showed an amazing shift west, but that was with an intact PV that moved nicely west ala GFS. I agree with you though that we should hope for a split in the PV because that enables both a better westward path and better blocking to prevent the storm from moving away fast (thanks to the eastern PV split lobe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:48 PM, SnowGoose69 said: We still need a more west shift but still plenty of time...the precip would not be that much that far west as the GFS shows. In terms of track I was saying, but ya if that how you see it. Western trends so far though so we'll take what we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 gfs ens came way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:48 PM, SnowGoose69 said: We still need a more west shift but still plenty of time...the precip would not be that much that far west as the GFS shows. Interestingly enough, the end result is very similar, maybe .4 in the city instead of .5 and obv more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Overall great trends from 0z in all models so far. Any shift west on the Euro and I'll be happy, even if it isn't a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:51 PM, tombo82685 said: gfs ens came way west how significant in terms of track in relation to the BM since thats always been a decent gauge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I still believe the Euro will be a miss but it might very well be a hit for eastern LI/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:52 PM, Kaner587 said: how significant in terms of track in relation to the BM since thats always been a decent gauge brings it over the bm or maybe a hair to it east. Wait till you see the qpf, its way west compared to 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I literally said "OMG" when I saw the GFS ensemble mean. Wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:53 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I still believe the Euro will be a miss but it might very well be a hit for eastern LI/CT. did you see my post about the result wrt to QPF, do you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the euro saw something last night with that pv being displaced way further west and now the models are picking up on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:53 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I still believe the Euro will be a miss but it might very well be a hit for eastern LI/CT. Sounds like you give a lot more credence to the GGEM track then the GFS track, especially with the GEFS coming in way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:55 PM, tombo82685 said: the euro saw something last night with that pv being displaced way further west and now the models are picking up on this its so funny the damn euro is first on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It's really encouraging to see that the GFS is not the only model showing inconsistent solutions one run to the next. Seeing the GGEM take a very radical shift from being way east to much more west should show everybody just how unclear a situation like this is when it's this far out. Now let's hope the Euro shows much of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 here are the ens mean way west from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 As someone mentioned yesterday the Euro doesn't tend to shift as much from run to run as the GFS is prone to do. Is there any truth to that? On 12/15/2010 at 4:53 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I still believe the Euro will be a miss but it might very well be a hit for eastern LI/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:57 PM, tombo82685 said: here are the ens mean way west from 0z precip is almost 1.5 times the OP and track is basically the same. Pretty strong signal there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:57 PM, Plfdwxdude said: As someone mentioned yesterday the Euro doesn't tend to shift as much from run to run as the GFS is prone to do. Is there any truth to that? I think it shifts in slower increments, which is why I'm not too concerned at all about the last few Euro model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:55 PM, tombo82685 said: the euro saw something last night with that pv being displaced way further west and now the models are picking up on this I saw a post last night that DT thinks the surface reflection should have shown the low pressure closer to the coast on the 00z euro...i dont know if that tru or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:59 PM, Kaner587 said: precip is almost 1.5 times the OP and track is basically the same. Pretty strong signal there... QPF from the ensemble is meaningless at this point because of the averaging effect. That said, this shift westward in the GFS/GEFS/GEM is obviously encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NOGAPS to Bermuda now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 4:59 PM, Kaner587 said: precip is almost 1.5 times the OP and track is basically the same. Pretty strong signal there... there's always more precip overall than the OP because it's a mean of all the ensembles but it does indicate that some of the ensembles are further west than the OP thus bringing more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ukie looks to be ots http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2010121512®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=850&F2=none&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C1=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 5:04 PM, tombo82685 said: ukie looks to be ots http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C1=pmsl It seems to be riding the progressive train thus far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 5:02 PM, The Iceman said: there's always more precip overall than the OP because it's a mean of all the ensembles but it does indicate that some of the ensembles are further west than the OP thus bringing more precip. If you mean spatial precipitation coverage then you are clearly right. But not if you're talking about QPF. That depends on which side of the ensemble spread the OP is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well, the 06z GEFS mean was pretty far east and still had three or four heavy hitters in the individuals. I have a feeling we're going to like the individuals when they do come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 5:06 PM, SnowGoose69 said: It seems to be riding the progressive train thus far this season. Umm pretty sure it was stubborn with the apps runner, being the last hold out for a pretty deep digging shortwave? So maybe this storm it's been progressive, but all season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 5:04 PM, tombo82685 said: ukie looks to be ots http://weather.uwyo....F1=p06i&C1=pmsl Really? Looks quite similar to the NAM at 72, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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