December 18-20 Talking Points - Part 2

[am19psu]

Go.

[The Iceman]

we've seen this with storms before...long range threat shows a big storm, the models lose the storm ots only to trend back west in this time frame. Not saying this is the case but the gfs is a good start.

[Allsnow]

Its nice to have a good run with the nam and gfs....but where going to need to see improvements with the ggem and ukemt, to have a shot at the euro coming west

[Stormlover74]

Such a shift from last year when everything was midatlantic missing the NE rather than coast missing inland. These storms always making me nervous though like early Dec '05 when NYC was supposed to get a solid 4to8 but ended up with much less while LI got a decent amount. Usually you can't tell until the final 12 to 24 hours just how close the heavy snows will make it.

With that being said I'd be very happy with a 3 to 5" snow event.

we've seen this with storms before...long range threat shows a big storm, the models lose the storm ots only to trend back west in this time frame. Not saying this is the case but the gfs is a good start.

[am19psu]

Its nice to have a good run with the nam and gfs....but where going to need to see improvements with the ggem and ukemt, to have a shot at the euro coming west

I don't get this at all. The GEM and UKM have no bearing on the ECM.

[Yorkpa25]

When do ggem and ukie come out?

[XtremeWx]

When do ggem and ukie come out?

GGEM should be coming out in a few minutes.

[Dsnowx53]

Chris (Bluewave) made a really good post in the general thread, saying how this run looks very similar to the 0z Euro from last night, except that it had a better southern stream. As long as we continue the trends to move that PV westward, which helps to amplify the trough, along with a decent southern stream, we definitely are still in the game.

The Euro, although meager at the surface, was loaded with potential...it just so happened that the southern stream was pretty much non-existent. Perhaps that could have something to do with the hanging energy back to the south west bias? Hopefully...

[_AR_]

we've seen this with storms before...long range threat shows a big storm, the models lose the storm ots only to trend back west in this time frame. Not saying this is the case but the gfs is a good start.

Exactly my thought. Deja vu. GFS shows a hit, jumps east. trends back west. How far is TBD. Other outcome is that the GFS is simply wrong.

[Allsnow]

I don't get this at all. The GEM and UKM have no bearing on the ECM.

Some have said usally the ukemt might forshadow what the ecm would do.........

[Ridingtime]

I know the set up is different than last year Decembers storm, but all this is feeling like such a dejavu. Models show storm 7 days out, then show it east 4-6 days out and people jump ship early, then 3 days out the models all show a slow westward trend with the Euro being the last one to catch on. And then bam the storm is back. Could it happen here? Let's hope so.

[am19psu]

Some have said usally the ukemt might forshadow what the ecm would do.........

Only because their physics and initialization schemes are similar. Look at last weekend, when the Euro was the farthest west solution (and ended up correct) and UKM was the farthest east for multiple runs in a row. These are independent events and the UKM really doesn't portend anything about the Euro run.

[IsentropicLift]

Chris (Bluewave) made a really good post in the general thread, saying how this run looks very similar to the 0z Euro from last night, except that it had a better southern stream. As long as we continue the trends to move that PV westward, which helps to amplify the trough, along with a decent southern stream, we definitely are still in the game.

The Euro, although meager at the surface, was loaded with potential...it just so happened that the southern stream was pretty much non-existent. Perhaps that could have something to do with the hanging energy back to the south west bias? Hopefully...

Ideally we want the PV to split like the 12/14 12Z GFS showed, made a perfect path right up the coast. Unless someone disagrees I think that is by far the best we could hope for. The current 12z GFS scenario with the PV sliding west I think is the second best case scenario.

[Allsnow]

Only because their physics and initialization schemes are similar. Look at last weekend, when the Euro was the farthest west solution (and ended up correct) and UKM was the farthest east for multiple runs in a row. These are independent events and the UKM really doesn't portend anything about the Euro run.

Thanks for explaining that to me...i would always here that, but it seem it would never be proven. Thanks again

[Kaner587]

I cant wait for the euro wave its finger in our face like dikembe mutombo just blocked our shot.....

but it would be nice if it supported the NAM/GFS and based on the trend last night its definitely poss

[_AR_]

Some notes on the 12Z GFS. Correct me if I am wrong, I am not a met.

1) PV "trended" west from 00Z run. This is good in that it will allow the storm to come west and not OTS.

2) No blocking in 50/50 position to slow the storm down.

3) That piece out there in the atlantic may help "force" the low up the coast and not OTS. ? It seems like the storm would be forced to head up somewhere in that open area (2).

Decent run. Hopefully it continues to trend west.

[blizzardof09]

You'd think the forecast models after pouring thousands if not millions to improve them they'd be more accurate lol....but the 12z def look like a nice improvement for phi on northward I don't think a "trend" but its a start

[Ridingtime]

Ideally we want the PV to split like the 12/14 12Z GFS showed, made a perfect path right up the coast. Unless someone disagrees I think that is by far the best we could hope for. The current 12z GFS scenario with the PV sliding west I think is the second best case scenario.

I think this is probably the most likely scenario because other models, particularly the Euro don't show much of a split in the PV and rather have it stay intact. So if that's how it going to be let the thing move west then all together. I'll take that.

[hazwoper]

And RIC gets Xmas snow! UNREAL!

[blazess556]

12z GGEM is west

[IsentropicLift]

I think this is probably the most likely scenario because other models, particularly the Euro don't show much of a split in the PV and rather have it stay intact. So if that's how it going to be let the thing move west then all together. I'll take that.

The NAM is showing a split. I have a great feeling about the NAM and last year it performed very well.

[blazess556]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/234_100.gif

GGEM at 96 hrs

[SnowGoose69]

Through 72 hours the GEM looks less progressive....the trough is aligned in the western Gulf as opposed to the central-eastern Gulf as it was at 84 hours on the 00z

[ag3]

Wow. Way west:

[eduggs]

Some notes on the 12Z GFS. Correct me if I am wrong, I am not a met.

1) PV "trended" west from 00Z run. This is good in that it will allow the storm to come west and not OTS.

2) No blocking in 50/50 position to slow the storm down.

3) That piece out there in the atlantic may help "force" the low up the coast and not OTS. ? It seems like the storm would be forced to head up somewhere in that open area (2).

Decent run. Hopefully it continues to trend west.

Actually the storm moves very slowly from south of Cape Cod into the Gulf of Maine as it gets captured and vertically stacked with mid/upper levels. The cutoff that forms stays basically in place as the block is well established. I don't really like the 50/50 low term as I believe its implications are poorly understood.

The cutoff needs to form early enough and westward enough for the surface storm to linger in our vicinity.

[KEITH L.I]

wow..big change in Canadian..and also a clipper on the 21st and possible storm on Christmas on 12 z GFS nice trend

[Kaner587]

GGEM looks very similar to the GFS so it looks like GFS/NAM/GGEM vs ?

[jrodd321]

Ggem showing some hope!

[SnowGoose69]

GGEM looks very similar to the GFS so it looks like GFS/NAM/GGEM vs ?

We still need a more west shift but still plenty of time...the precip would not be that much that far west as the GFS shows.

[jm1220]

This is exactly why I mentioned last night that this threat can't be written off based on the volatility of all the players on the field. If the polar vortex cooperates and gets out of the way soon enough, it probably wouldn't take a strong disturbance to ride up the coast and deliver a significant snow to our area. It might matter for DC and south, since the disturbance would have to strengthen and wrap up into a Noreaster in time for them, but it would almost certainly benefit us and New England. Models today (and the 0z Euro last night) are suggesting that the vortex will split very nicely and allow whatever develops to come north. Not to mention the fact that in Ninas, the north and west solution almost always wins out anyway. Hopefully the Euro jumps on board to a storm today and then tonight/tomorrow we juicen it up and strengthen it.