ChescoWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Joe Bastardi (a well respected MET) has been on the cold train like many here on Eastern...ah American Wx for November/December and he indicates in his morning post today that "Winter is getting ready to attack, nationwide and the pattern of cross polar flow and neg ao and nao means its liable to get stormy too." He indicates that the stormy and cold will provide quite the contrast to last year. Should be some interesting times ahead for the early life of the American Weather Forums....thanks again to all who help make this possible. I hope everyone helps contribute to keeping it going Paul www.chescowx.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Joe Bastardi (a well respected MET) has been on the cold train like many here on Eastern...ah American Wx for November/December and he indicates in his morning post today that "Winter is getting ready to attack, nationwide and the pattern of cross polar flow and neg ao and nao means its liable to get stormy too." He indicates that the stormy and cold will provide quite the contrast to last year. Should be some interesting times ahead for the early life of the American Weather Forums....thanks again to all who help make this possible. I hope everyone helps contribute to keeping it going Paul www.chescowx.com well according to the 12z euro winter's attack looks pretty weak in the eastern US thru day 10, other than a couple quick shots of seasonably cold later this week, temps in the OV, eastern GL and on east look to now be fairly mild into the first part of thanksgiving week. All the action stays in the nw and nc portion of the U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 well according to the 12z euro winter's attack looks pretty weak in the eastern US thru day 10, other than a couple quick shots of seasonably cold later this week, temps in the OV, eastern GL and on east look to now be fairly mild into the first part of thanksgiving week. All the action stays in the nw and nc portion of the U.S. It won't stay that way if the ECM is right about the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 I'm all for the colder pattern developing AFTER thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I'm all for the colder pattern developing AFTER thanksgiving. yep, its a waste down here before I recall how quickly Vet. Day snowstorm of 87' melted, though I only received 6" and I know some places around DC got close to double that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 of course JB is going to bang the early winter attack drum....his forecast for most of the east is winter comes early and then exits quickly. He's going to give it the grandest, most drawn out entrance he can. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 of course JB is going to bang the early winter attack drum....his forecast for most of the east is winter comes early and then exits quickly. He's going to give it the grandest, most drawn out entrance he can. Let's see what happens. looks like a potentially warm pattern developing, especially if the high continues to slide away from greenland. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010111412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010111418&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr little change at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 He did say "from Thanksgiving thru Christmas winter hits hardest in the east" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Jb calling for an east coast blockbuster early-mid December. 12-24??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Jb calling for an east coast blockbuster early-mid December. 12-24??? congrats dude! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Jb calling for an east coast blockbuster early-mid December. 12-24??? so warm mid to late dec along the EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 so warm mid to late dec along the EC? Ji's right.....i just read the column and JB is all of a sudden pumped up for a biggie sometime in the 2 weeks following turkeyday. Best I can figure is he saw an 18z run that he liked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 so warm mid to late dec along the EC? He said the best part of winter for the east will be after t-day-xmass, can see a big storm in early december occuring. Also goes on to say that the i-95 area might have trouble during this period with rain issues...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 He said the best part of winter for the east will be after t-day-xmass, can see a big storm in early december occuring. Also goes on to say that the i-95 area might have trouble during this period with rain issues...... In a way I don't mind for the cold to stay away a while longer. Heating costs are high enough and why spend money on super cold this early? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Closer to my yard, a banana plant surface foliage killing hard frost/light freeze looks on tap the weekend after Thanksgiving. You think they're dead, but it takes prolonged subfreezing to kill the roots, and they produce lush tropical looking foliage the following Spring. Takes a frost free Winter, however, for the little banana clusters. Farther from home, because of that darned Atlantic Ocean, significant snow at my old house in Nassau Shores was rare before Christmas. JB also has a Lake Effect warning for Thanksgiving holiday travel troubles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Closer to my yard, a banana plant surface foliage killing hard frost/light freeze looks on tap the weekend after Thanksgiving. You think they're dead, but it takes prolonged subfreezing to kill the roots, and they produce lush tropical looking foliage the following Spring. Takes a frost free Winter, however, for the little banana clusters. Farther from home, because of that darned Atlantic Ocean, significant snow at my old house in Nassau Shores was rare before Christmas. JB also has a Lake Effect warning for Thanksgiving holiday travel troubles. ill believe that when NWS mentions it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 ill believe that when NWS mentions it lol I believe LEK is the master of LES and the well drawn map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 He said the best part of winter for the east will be after t-day-xmass, can see a big storm in early december occuring. Also goes on to say that the i-95 area might have trouble during this period with rain issues...... In other words an Apps runner is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 In other words an Apps runner is coming I get the strange feeling that you dont trust JB's calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I get the strange feeling that you dont trust JB's calls. Yeah I think its partly due to my region, which is a place that is typically ignored by Accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Coldest last 5 days of November since at least 2002, maybe 1989, per JB. East of the Mississippi. I remember the 1989 HELL freeze. I think it got down to 14ºF in Austin. Although, Austin is West of the Mississippi. And that was December, around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Coldest last 5 days of November since at least 2002, maybe 1989, per JB. East of the Mississippi. I remember the 1989 HELL freeze. I think it got down to 14ºF in Austin. Although, Austin is West of the Mississippi. And that was December, around Christmas. I don't think ti will be as cold as he is expecting, seasonally cold yes, but the worst in 8 years I don't know about that. Also Nov of 2002 was a lot colder for a longer period than what is forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Coldest last 5 days of November since at least 2002, maybe 1989, per JB. East of the Mississippi. 2005 had a colder temperature in NYC than 1989... November's lowest temperature since 1987 is 22 set in 2005...1989 was 23 for a min. 18 in 1987 22 in 2005 23 in 1989 23 in 1996 23 in 2000 23 in 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 1989, the year the Turkey Derby stock car race at Wall Stadium was postponed into December because of the thanksgiving day snowstorm...I remember it well and havn't missed a Turkey Derby since 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Coldest last 5 days of November since at least 2002, maybe 1989, per JB. East of the Mississippi. I remember the 1989 HELL freeze. I think it got down to 14ºF in Austin. Although, Austin is West of the Mississippi. And that was December, around Christmas. BRING IT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark_wx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 With the NAO and AO expected to tank negative, the idea that cold air displaces south and east is definitely plausible. Now the whole idea of a big East coast storm at this stage is obviously premature, however given the expected pattern change, you could argue that the set up would be favorable for at least some wintry precipitation. The most important element of the pattern will be the Greenland blocking. If it's as robust as some models and ensembles are indicating, that bodes well for prospective snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 He may be respected by some, but he doesn't impress me. Some of the most blown up and overhyped calls can be made by JB for the sake of webpage hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark_wx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 He may be respected by some, but he doesn't impress me. Some of the most blown up and overhyped calls can be made by JB for the sake of webpage hits. I interned at AccuWeather this past summer and while he definitely knows his stuff, I agree that a lot of the stuff he says is for the web traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 This is where JB gets in trouble. I don't get why he needs to say coldest in X years. There's no way of really knowing that without observing the developing air mass in the first place from the source region, and you have to consider moderation of the air mass as the air mass travels south and southeast. He's right about the pattern developing and bringing a cold pattern for Thanksgiving on, but the coldest in 8 years? That didn't need to be added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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