Issues the Climate Change Contrarians Need to Address

[donsutherland1]

A paper written by Gabriele Hegerl et al., and published in Environmental Research Letters in December puts regional variability, natural oceanic cycles, and climate change into context. Excerpts on that point:

However, while climate variability on regional scales is large and can create sustained periods of regional warming and cooling...by shifting energy around, generating a global, long-term warming requires a net source of energy. In the absence of a source of energy, local variations of atmospheric temperature would be expected to average out globally over time. Is it possible that the added atmospheric energy, experienced as warming, may be coming from the ocean? Ocean temperatures vary in space and time, driving important regional climate fluctuations (such as during alternate phases of ENSO--the cyclical changes in Pacific ocean temperatures that include the well known El Niño events). However, observations of ocean temperatures since the middle of the 20th century show a pattern of warming that would be expected when heat is moving into the oceans from the atmosphere above, not the reverse... Thus, both atmosphere and ocean are warming, and without an external source it is difficult to explain a long-term change in the Earth's energy budget.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044025/pdf/1748-9326_6_4_044025.pdf

[WeatherRusty]

A paper written by Gabriele Hegerl et al., and published in Environmental Research Letters in December puts regional variability, natural oceanic cycles, and climate change into context. Excerpts on that point:

However, while climate variability on regional scales is large and can create sustained periods of regional warming and cooling...by shifting energy around, generating a global, long-term warming requires a net source of energy. In the absence of a source of energy, local variations of atmospheric temperature would be expected to average out globally over time. Is it possible that the added atmospheric energy, experienced as warming, may be coming from the ocean? Ocean temperatures vary in space and time, driving important regional climate fluctuations (such as during alternate phases of ENSO--the cyclical changes in Pacific ocean temperatures that include the well known El Niño events). However, observations of ocean temperatures since the middle of the 20th century show a pattern of warming that would be expected when heat is moving into the oceans from the atmosphere above, not the reverse... Thus, both atmosphere and ocean are warming, and without an external source it is difficult to explain a long-term change in the Earth's energy budget.

http://iopscience.io..._6_4_044025.pdf

This is what we have been claiming from a purely physical point of view all along. Only an external forcing (something which alters the energy balance at the TOA) can warm or cool the Earth. Everything else (internal variability) merely moves the available energy around within the system, alternately exposing more or less of it to the surface. Higher temperature derives from either greater energy absorption or greater energy retention

This can be reduced to three simple factors.

Changes in solar energy received from the Sun.

Changes in albedo.

Changes in the heat retention characteristics of the atmosphere.

[donsutherland1]

A new study indicated that the warming climate may be impacting butterfly populations, leading to a northward shift of butterflies found farther south and a drop in the population of cold-adapted butterflies in Massachusetts.

Climate warming is expected to change the distribution and abundance of many species. Range shifts have been detected in a number of European taxa for which long-term government-initiated or organized-survey data are available. In North America, well-organized long-term data needed to document such shifts are much less common. Opportunistic observations made by citizen scientist groups may be an excellent alternative to systematic surveys. From 1992 to 2010, 19,779 butterfly surveys were made by amateur naturalists in Massachusetts, a geographically small state located at the convergence of northern and southern bioclimatic zones in eastern North America. From these data, we estimated population trends for nearly all butterfly species (100 of 116 species present) using list-length analysis. Population trajectories indicate increases of many species near their northern range limits and declines in nearly all species (17 of 21) near their southern range limits. Certain life-history traits, especially overwintering stage, were strongly associated with declines. Our results suggest that a major, climate-induced shift of North American butterflies, characterized by northward expansions of warm-adapted and retreat of cold-adapted species, is underway.

The complete paper can be found at: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1663.html

[ORH_wxman]

A new study indicated that the warming climate may be impacting butterfly populations, leading to a northward shift of butterflies found farther south and a drop in the population of cold-adapted butterflies in Massachusetts.

Climate warming is expected to change the distribution and abundance of many species. Range shifts have been detected in a number of European taxa for which long-term government-initiated or organized-survey data are available. In North America, well-organized long-term data needed to document such shifts are much less common. Opportunistic observations made by citizen scientist groups may be an excellent alternative to systematic surveys. From 1992 to 2010, 19,779 butterfly surveys were made by amateur naturalists in Massachusetts, a geographically small state located at the convergence of northern and southern bioclimatic zones in eastern North America. From these data, we estimated population trends for nearly all butterfly species (100 of 116 species present) using list-length analysis. Population trajectories indicate increases of many species near their northern range limits and declines in nearly all species (17 of 21) near their southern range limits. Certain life-history traits, especially overwintering stage, were strongly associated with declines. Our results suggest that a major, climate-induced shift of North American butterflies, characterized by northward expansions of warm-adapted and retreat of cold-adapted species, is underway.

The complete paper can be found at: http://www.nature.co...limate1663.html

This would be consistent with a fairly steep temperature rise in Massachusetts since 1992. The temperature rise in MA from 1992-2010 using linear regression was about 1.3F. The temperature has risen at similar rates in surrounding states.