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Friday (Aug 10) Severe Disc/Obs


Ellinwood

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Sun is wining here in Manassas and off of work!!! I hope heading out for a chase. Anyone have any idea where they would go?????? I am thinking towards Leesburg at 4-5pm then back towards the city by 7pm!!! What do you think everyone??? I am going off NOAA future cast. Looking at GFS too!

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Mesoscale discussion....

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0231 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/NRN VA...WRN AND CNTRL MD...S CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101931Z - 102100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS STILL NOT CERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE

BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT

THAT COULD REQUIRE A WW WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO SUPPORT

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...BUT UPPER FLOW ACROSS

AND TO THE LEE OF THE ALLEGHENY MOUNTAINS IS DIFLUENT...TO THE EAST

OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY GREAT LAKES CYCLONE. AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES ARE BECOMING FAIRLY STEEP WITHIN AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF

STRONGER HEATING TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE

CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR

70F ACROSS THIS REGION...BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE COULD BECOME MODERATELY

LARGE WITH AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING...WHICH APPEARS

POSSIBLE...BUT IS NOT CERTAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CLOSE

PROXIMITY OF THE 40-50 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING

NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE

STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN NOW

AND 22-23Z. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN

FAIRLY WEAK...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING ISOLATED

SUPERCELLS...MAY PROVIDE A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/10/2012

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Meanwhile, imbedded tornadic supercells are going strong south of Long Island and in Block Island sound...

Kinda neat but the box is unneeded perhaps. Most of that stuff will stay offshore or just clip SNE.

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