Ian Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I'd think good sign? Aren't things supposed to get a bit better tomorrow (barring cloud cover of course). i dunno if it means anything at all since the s/w for tomorrow is still way west but it's perhaps still good to get with a weak wind environment above. though we may also be seeing more sun and less crud today than tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I'd like to say it's a good sign, but in my limited experience here I've seen a handful of tornado warnings up in the MD/VA Panhandles for what seems like a very localized area for rotating storms. I don't know if the orography up there is helping create some spin, but rotation definitely seems more prevalent up in that area when other parts of our region are lacking. I would rather see some tor warnings out in OH/IN since that's the real upstream air we'll be playing in tomorrow. Nice looking tornado warned storm in IN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 Nice looking tornado warned storm in IN! That actually makes me feel a lot better that such a nice looking cell is there in 1500 J/kg CAPE. My hopes for tomorrow are slightly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 That actually makes me feel a lot better that such a nice looking cell is there in 1500 J/kg CAPE. My hopes for tomorrow are slightly higher. yeah places are doing well today with not much. If we have some more boundaries tomorrow too it could be decent, its not too meh I'm somewhat enthusiastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I think we could be seeing severe storms along a line going overnight in Ohio, moving east in Western PA and exploding into low topped supercells, i would say tomorrow has a good chance of being a 30% wind day in West and Central PA/S NY,W MD area, I would go with a large 2% tornado from Virginia to the Canada Border, and 5% area for E OH and West and Central PA, with maybe if things come together a 10% in Central PA into perhaps MD and West PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 People seem somewhat optimistic! Woooo storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 People seem somewhat optimistic! Woooo storms? Heavy heavy tornadoes tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Heavy heavy tornadoes tomorrow More like - heavy, heavy Yoda optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 NAM sucks for tomorrow. I suppose the SREF and NAM are indicating S NY into C PA for a possible tornado, assuming the increase in SRH is legitimate. I feel like the 00z NAM solution is very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 NAM sucks for tomorrow. I suppose the SREF and NAM are indicating S NY into C PA for a possible tornado, assuming the increase in SRH is legitimate. I feel like the 00z NAM solution is very different. I haven't looked that deep -- is it that different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I haven't looked that deep -- is it that different? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I see CAPE took a hit.. probably because both seem to like morning convection around and given radar it's hard not to agree. Hopefully it doesn't linger too long I guess. For some reason I feel good about breaking into some sun before afternoon in the region. As a target I like the HGR to State College to Johnstown to Cumberland box tho I have no terrain criteria so maybe it sucks (as im sure it mostly does).. tho that's the southern end of the better zone perhaps and I think anything tornadic is likely to be sorta random anyway. Today's activity was well sw of their 2% though looking at the trough orientation they probably should have 2% that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I see CAPE took a hit.. probably because both seem to like morning convection around and given radar it's hard not to agree. Hopefully it doesn't linger too long I guess. For some reason I feel good about breaking into some sun before afternoon in the region. As a target I like the HGR to State College to Johnstown to Cumberland box tho I have no terrain criteria so maybe it sucks (as im sure it mostly does).. tho that's the southern end of the better zone perhaps and I think anything tornadic is likely to be sorta random anyway. Today's activity was well sw of their 2% though looking at the trough orientation they probably should have 2% that area. 18z run of the local ARW model from LWX has none of the morning stuff other than a couple showers it seems - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 18z run of the local ARW model from LWX has none of the morning stuff other than a couple showers it seems - it sure looks like it might rain by morning.. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php it's not a cut and dry setup.. there's plenty not to love about it. but i think that's normal here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 it sure looks like it might rain by morning.. http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php it's not a cut and dry setup.. there's plenty not to love about it. but i think that's normal here? Oh yeah...it's gonna rain for sure I'd say. Local models probably on drugs. I liked your tropical setup thought from earlier...even if we get rain in the morning might have enough juice to get low topped spinups perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I will say that with the uncertainty, I'd think that the 06z outlook in a few hours won't show much bullishness. Probably 2% tor, 15% wind, 15 or 5 hail. I'd think they'd wait until things became more clear for the morning or midday update before upping anything (if at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Actually - purely going on 0z NAM-hires...it looks like it "clears" us out of the precip for a time around 18z and then pushes through a big line of something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 not the right forum but waterspout on lake erie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Actually - purely going on 0z NAM-hires...it looks like it "clears" us out of the precip for a time around 18z and then pushes through a big line of something big. at this pt might as well just see what things look like in the morning. on a wider level not much has changed with the models in a few days. for many the most interesting thing might just be the heavy rain.. and some may have already seen their heaviest today. dca will get less than .05" somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 not the right forum but waterspout on lake erie! Perty. Maybe we'll some signatures like that around here tomorrow. (In an open field not causing damage) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Perty. Maybe we'll some signatures like that around here tomorrow. (In an open field not causing damage) thanks for missing it's ontario and not erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 00z NAM is ok, it appears to have some clearing over most of West-Central PA to MD, i think the SPC will have a 5% tornado on the next outlook with 15% hail/wind (maybe a 30% but doubtful) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 thanks for missing it's ontario and not erie. Well that explains why I didn't see anything when I went to the Cleveland radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 not the right forum but waterspout on lake erie! Nice! Lake effect waterspouts. I went into bufkit and with the current water temperature (76-78°) it actually increases the SBCAPE locally to 1500-1800. The surrounding land areas are modeled to around 600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 GFS looks a lil better, but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 New Day 1 out -- 15 hail/wind, 0 tor (2 tor way up in N PA/NY) ..FROM THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC NWD TO NEW ENGLAND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE EVOLVING SVR POTENTIAL IN THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY FRI. NEVERTHELESS...AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG DUE TO THE WEAK LAPSE RATES/ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER...RESULTING IN POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA RESULTING IN 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGING FROM 45 KTS OVER WRN NY/NWRN PA TO 25-30 KTS OVER THE CAROLINAS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BACK EAST OF THE SFC LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND A CONDITIONALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST IN THIS AREA WITH ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ELSEWHERE...ORIENTATION OF SHEAR VECTORS LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT LINES OF STORMS/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH A FEW HAIL REPORTS ALSO POSSIBLE. SVR PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF CORRIDORS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I got severe showers right now. The rain is good but will it mess up the severe chances later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 +1 to JT for the McKayla insert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Cell near Havre de Grace went from nothing, to 40,000 feet and 60 dbz in like 4 scans. Hopefully it's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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