Minnesota Meso Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Things are starting to look a bit interesting for the above time frame. A warm front looks to move north from say Monday evening the 13th through Wednesday the 15th, followed by a strong cold front by Friday in the Uppper Mississippi Valley. At this time (like usual this far out) timing is a big question, but this set up has had my attention since yesterday. I debated about starting this thread but decided to go ahead after tonight's run of the GFS. Thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Way too far out to go into further detail, but some of the 00z GFS ensemble members look somewhat promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Slight Risk tomorrow for MN, IA, WI, NE, and SD. Nothing too interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Could be active today/night http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1766.html Mesoscale Discussion 1766 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SE ND...FAR ERN SD...NW IA...MUCH OF MN...FAR WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 151956Z - 152100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY 21Z. SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS ALONG COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL MAY INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DISCUSSION...AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR NW MN INTO ERN SD AS OF 1930Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. HI-RES WRF-NMM...NSSL WRF AND HRRR ALL INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 20-21Z HOWEVER. LATEST RADAR DATA ALSO SEEMS TO BE INDICATING A SLOW UPWARD TREND WITH STRONGER CORES DEVELOPING FROM NEAR BELTRAMI TO MAHNOMEN COUNTY IN NW MN. SO...WHILE CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS LIKELY BEEN DELAYED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER...STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED BY 21Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30-50 KT WILL AID IN ORGANIZATION OF CELLS...WHICH MAY REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE INITIALLY...INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS ALONG THE FRONT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY ONCE LINEAR ORGANIZATION OCCURS. OTHERWISE...STRONGER CELLS MAY INITIALLY ALSO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE MAY BE THE NEED FOR TWO SEPARATE WATCHES WHERE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS FAR ERN SD INTO NW IA/SW MN MAY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN THAT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Could be active today/night http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1766.html Mesoscale Discussion 1766 Had some hail & lots of lightning as the line came through...0.53 total. 2.41' so far this month so much needed moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 This sealed our fate further east: Notice the dry layer. The only rain I have really had in the north TC metro is the .20 I got today, but the southern metro got some good rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 This sealed our fate further east: Notice the dry layer. The only rain I have really had in the north TC metro is the .20 I got today, but the southern metro got some good rains. The dry layer didn't do you in. You have plenty of moisture in the low-levels. The -142J/kg of MLCINH did, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 24, 2012 Share Posted August 24, 2012 Tornado warning for the storm approaching Minneapolis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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