28storms Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 West Gulf looks to stay active if you take the CMC/GFS solution. The low may hug the coast for a few days and it'll be interesting to see if the trough drags it back over water eventually. Euro says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 1. No. The ridge builds back in after 96 hours and the door is shut for N movement. If it festers 3-5 days it is not likely to be carried N or NNE as the trough lifts out and the ridge builds back in. Go look at the 0z GFS. Better to get strong early and get picked up into the weakness before it is too late. 2. Go look at the 0z GFS. Persistent weakness at 50w for the next 2 weeks. Gordon just the beginning of the recurve train. Should be a few monsters after him that turn on a dime at 50w. Again, this is based on the GFS so we'll see what happens. You should probably read more and post less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Unrelated to model wars and steering, convection has become quite sparse. MIMIC-TPW doesn't seem to offer a reason, as far as any dry air issues. All I had to do was make a comment and go to bed. I was hoping a new center would form East of the obvious center/NHC center, but one out of two isn't bad. Wonder if it will knock the "first major of the season" in other thread to Isaac... They seem to be counting on 'Helene'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Not surprisingly they went code red. Probably will be one of those situations where the big question throughout the day is if they upgrade it before recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 You should probably read more and post less. I gave him similar advice but he didn't seem interested. I am glad he straightened me out. My 25 years of meteorological experience has really been a long period of waiting for someone like him to come along and teach me how to read 500 mb charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I gave him similar advice but he didn't seem interested. I am glad he straightened me out. My 25 years of meteorological experience has really been a long period of waiting for someone like him to come along and teach me how to read 500 mb charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 E-mail update from Jeff: (Local Pro Met) Visible satellite images and radar data from Mexico indicate the area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche is becoming better organized and a tropical depression is likely forming. The system is moving toward the WNW at around 10mph and on this track will move inland later today or early tonight. However the ridge to its north and northeast is forecast to weaken and break down on the western edge allowing the system to slow and possibly stall as it nears the coast…this has been what the global forecast models have been showing for days now. The main question is does the center stall offshore or inland. Over the weekend the system should start to drift northward as it becomes influenced by the deep trough along the US east coast and it is possible that the center could move inland tonight and then back offshore over the weekend. Recon aircraft will be flying this system early this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 NOUS42 KNHC 171400REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1000 AM EDT FRI 17 AUGUST 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-091 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARKS: MISSION INTO THE REMNANTS OF TD #7 FOR 17/2000Z WILL FLY AS TASKED ON TCPOD 12-090. Almost wondering why at this point. Not exactly sure to the half degree where the center is, but it seems close to land, CIMSS suggested short term steering is WNW, and it seems like they aren't going to upgrade to a TD or storm, and issue warnings, w/o the aircraft, so the best they will do is hoist TS warnings for the coast as TS conditions are arriving. If they are concerned about a quick intensifying Humberto-ish system, the plane should have been airborne shortly after sunrise. Just my amateur and unofficial comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 NHC just issued a Special TWO for this feature: SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. UPDATED...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE NOT YET BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FORMATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES LAND. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IF ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 That's a real shame. Center is right on the coast. Recon will have a fun time trying to avoid the coast and get a center estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 It looks like a relatively small circulation is developing in the convective mass thats right along the Mexican shoreline. It will be interesting to see if this can stay offshore before recon makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 In my honest opinion, I do not believe that recon won't make it. It's going to need a big shift to avoid landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 It looks like a relatively small circulation is developing in the convective mass thats right along the Mexican shoreline. It will be interesting to see if this can stay offshore before recon makes it. Yep, it's quickly organizing, and I'm sure it's a TD at least, but it's like 50 miles or less from the coast, though moving slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Almost wondering why at this point. Not exactly sure to the half degree where the center is, but it seems close to land, CIMSS suggested short term steering is WNW, and it seems like they aren't going to upgrade to a TD or storm, and issue warnings, w/o the aircraft, so the best they will do is hoist TS warnings for the coast as TS conditions are arriving. If they are concerned about a quick intensifying Humberto-ish system, the plane should have been airborne shortly after sunrise. Just my amateur and unofficial comments. The mission was already tasked two days in advanced. You have to alert the crew with some decent lead time or otherwise they wouldn't be available. The "resource permitting" flights are more rare, mainly because its difficult to give a 12-24 hour lead time for a flight crew. Sure it would be great to have recon in there ASAP, but sometimes that not always possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 12z GFS takes it on and offshore eventually being picked up to the NNE across SW Louisiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 The mission was already tasked two days in advanced. You have to alert the crew with some decent lead time or otherwise they wouldn't be available. The "resource permitting" flights are more rare, mainly because its difficult to give a 12-24 hour lead time for a flight crew. Sure it would be great to have recon in there ASAP, but sometimes that not always possible. The normal tasking that I usually see, from the previous day, is usually for 18Z, which would have meant the plane would already be in the area. I was noting today's POD, issued when it already appeared likely a plane not scheduled until 20Z would have serious issues arriving in time, could have just as well cancelled the mission. They likely won't make it in time, and even if they do, NHC can recommend to the SMN they hoist warnings in an area where TS force winds are already occuring or imminent. Not to mention the critical need sensor the J model Hercules have, the most interested I am in a flight, the greater the chance they will experience equipment difficulty and cancel the flight or return early. Last recon for Ernesto being the most recent example. Eyeballing visible, if the plane hasn't left yet, it shouldn't bother. Winds at MMVR have already gone Southwest, it is making landfall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 I'd call that a landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 I'd call that a landfall. Altamira radar suggests otherwise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 Altamira radar suggests otherwise... Looks like there's a discernible low level swirl that made it at least partially ashore, and what looks like a spurious MLC just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Altamira radar suggests otherwise... Yes, it is not on shore yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 These mexican radars are like Rorschach images...but I think I agree with the non landfall interpretation...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 FWIW, between TD 7 and the front, the Canadian does the GFS one better and actually hits SC Louisiana w/ a sub 996 mb storm/hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Times have changed, they're clearly going to continue this as TD 7 if it comes to it but didn't continue TD 10 into Katrina, despite the fact that the gap between TD 7 and the regeneration today is much larger than between TD 10 and Katrina. They said they didn't continue TD 10 since the low level circulation didn't make it, but TD 7's low level circulation didn't really make it this far in one piece either, it's reformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 After some squinting and eye rolling, after looking the Altamira and Alvarado radar loops, it looks like it's moving parallel to the coast, so it will give it a few more hours before landfall...and just enough time for recon to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 17, 2012 Author Share Posted August 17, 2012 Still not seeing the plane in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Still not seeing the plane in the air. RECON is en route... 000 URNT15 KNHC 171821 AF303 0207A INVEST HDOB 05 20120817 181300 2856N 09020W 3979 07642 0423 -170 -194 297018 021 /// /// 03 181330 2854N 09022W 3982 07642 0425 -160 -160 283020 023 /// /// 05 181400 2852N 09024W 3984 07634 0424 -171 -211 285022 025 /// /// 03 181430 2850N 09026W 3978 07649 0426 -174 -265 288020 022 /// /// 03 181500 2848N 09027W 3987 07635 0428 -167 -275 288019 020 /// /// 03 181530 2847N 09029W 3969 07666 0428 -168 -240 287020 023 /// /// 03 181600 2845N 09031W 3982 07643 0426 -168 -214 282015 018 /// /// 03 181630 2843N 09032W 3974 07654 0423 -164 -210 269013 015 /// /// 03 181700 2842N 09034W 3979 07643 0423 -167 -237 279017 018 /// /// 03 181730 2840N 09035W 3978 07644 0423 -171 -326 273017 018 /// /// 03 181800 2838N 09037W 3981 07640 0423 -172 -319 275018 018 /// /// 03 181830 2836N 09039W 3980 07641 0424 -170 -321 285018 019 /// /// 03 181900 2834N 09040W 3979 07646 0426 -172 -336 277019 019 /// /// 03 181930 2832N 09042W 3983 07639 0426 -173 -330 274018 019 023 000 00 182000 2831N 09044W 3982 07644 0426 -172 -335 277020 021 029 009 03 182030 2829N 09046W 3980 07646 0426 -168 -326 275020 022 /// /// 03 182100 2827N 09047W 3999 07607 0426 -163 -219 281018 020 /// /// 03 182130 2825N 09049W 3971 07666 0428 -171 -349 288016 017 /// /// 03 182200 2824N 09050W 3978 07649 0426 -170 -317 280015 017 /// /// 03 182230 2822N 09052W 3979 07644 0425 -168 -221 280016 018 /// /// 03 $$ ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Looking at radar/visible loops the LLC still looks to be well offshore by at least 100 miles or so, and seems to be crawling NNW or paralleling the coast. Def think recon will find a LLC / TD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Euro is closer to the multiple GFS past runs (sans latest 12z)...slow moving right over the Tamaulipas coast, then the trough lifts and weak ridging pushes inland somewhere in Nern Tamaulipas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Looking at radar/visible loops the LLC still looks to be well offshore by at least 100 miles or so, and seems to be crawling NNW or paralleling the coast. Def think recon will find a LLC / TD Recon is within 60 miles of the shore and hasn't found a circulation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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