Ex-Helene remnant trof

[wxmx]

An LLC is pretty obviously re-forming well out (relative to the previous NHC init points) in the Bay of Campeche, which changes everything.

Yep, though it's quite small and on the Wern side of the anticyclone, so there's some Serly shear... if it becomes the dominant low, it will finish S of Tampico, leaving a surface trough behind probably...this things are quite complicated to forecast.

[Ed Lizard]

Something is pretty obvious well West of where I would have expected, near 20ºN and about 92.5ºW, and if that is the main player, I don't know it has time to avoid cruising WNW into Mexico.

[Superstorm93]

18z OFPI track looks semi-interesting.

DSHP brings the system up to 60 knots in 120 hours. With the recent development of the MLC working to the surface, I'd take this with a grain of salt.

[Ed Lizard]

18z OFPI track looks semi-interesting.

DSHP brings the system up to 60 knots in 120 hours. With the recent development of the MLC working to the surface, I'd take this with a grain of salt.

Oddly enough, that looks very close to the Climatology/Persistence track. If CLIPERS scores the model coup on track, I don't know, the Mayan Calendar might end.

[wxmx]

The depiction of the disturbance in the 18z gfs is like following the footsteps of a sombrero dance

Apparently the ~700mb low was a transient feature...inside a broader turning...at least to my untrained eye.

[Ed Lizard]

The depiction of the disturbance in the 18z gfs is like following the footsteps of a sombrero dance

Apparently the ~700mb low was a transient feature...inside a broader turning...at least to my untrained eye.

Where the corpse of TD 7 is will be rather important to how the models do.

What I think I see on satellite doesn't jive well with CIMSS vorticity products, whcih are South of where I'd expect. Mid BoC about 20ºN looks like it will be the main show, although, if per chance, the deeper convection East of that is the main show, I think it'd become more interesting.

I am somewhat confused.

[Superstorm93]

Where the corpse of TD 7 is will be rather important to how the models do.

What I think I see on satellite doesn't jive well with CIMSS vorticity products, whcih are South of where I'd expect. Mid BoC about 20ºN looks like it will be the main show, although, if per chance, the deeper convection East of that is the main show, I think it'd become more interesting.

I am somewhat confused.

Not sure what to think yet either. The RAP has most of the 850 mb action over land still.

[gulfcane]

I still think if this develops quick enough that it should go N and not wnw or even NW like the NHC says. That trough on the ECMWF digs really deep the over the next 96 hours. I think upper TX coast is more likely than southern/central MX or south TX. Could just meander a day or two before organizing but we shall see. The only negative would be proximity to land so we'll see how close it is to the coast. This is actually the biggest threat since Beryl though which isn't saying much but I'll take it. Much more problematic than that POS exiting africa.

[wxsmwhrms]

NHC has upped the threat to 40% on the 8 pm TWO.

[HurricaneJosh]

Oooooh.

[Srain]

[wxmx]

I still think if this develops quick enough that it should go N and not wnw or even NW like the NHC says. That trough on the ECMWF digs really deep the over the next 96 hours. I think upper TX coast is more likely than southern/central MX or south TX. Could just meander a day or two before organizing but we shall see. The only negative would be proximity to land so we'll see how close it is to the coast. This is actually the biggest threat since Beryl though which isn't saying much but I'll take it. Much more problematic than that POS exiting africa.

nonsense...theres currently a ridge to the north for the next 24-48 hours

[phil882]

nonsense...theres currently a ridge to the north for the next 24-48 hours

Yes, the weakness doesn't appear until the medium range, between 72-120 hours. The system could be well inland by then.

[wxmx]

Latest CIMSS vorticity products show different energies coalescing and also becoming a little more vertically aligned. Convection is unimpressive, but turning was evident in the latest visibles available. Let's see how the night treats 07L.

[Ed Lizard]

Latest CIMSS vorticity products show different energies coalescing and also becoming a little more vertically aligned. Convection is unimpressive, but turning was evident in the latest visibles available. Let's see how the night treats 07L.

Still fairly broad though on the 700 mb vorticity. Sort of hoping it develops a degree or two East of the most obvious vis rotation before dusk, which was essentially the 0Z NHC position, since it will move WNW intially, and that increases the chances of it staying offshore long enough to do something, and get closer to Texas and maybe have peripheral effects. At least I'm not expecting the susbsidence a well developed system would produce, although we may be too far on the wrong side of the front locally to benefit from Easterly flow North of a possible cyclone. Or maybe the front hangs up nearby, and wonderful things happen.

If it doesn't move inland along the Mexico coast, it maybe could get to extreme Deep South Texas. If it develops a little farther East than expected, and moves slow enough, it could get turned North then Northeast. But the one place, unless things really surprise me, that wouldn't seem a good candidate for landfall would seem to be the Upper Texas Coast or SW Louisiana, judging from heights 3 to 5 days out.

Couple of ensemble members on 18Z run with a low near Texas, but over a week out, and may not be directly related to zombie TD #7

[gulfcane]

I still think if this develops quick enough that it should go N and not wnw or even NW like the NHC says. That trough on the ECMWF digs really deep the over the next 96 hours. I think upper TX coast is more likely than southern/central MX or south TX. Could just meander a day or two before organizing but we shall see. The only negative would be proximity to land so we'll see how close it is to the coast. This is actually the biggest threat since Beryl though which isn't saying much but I'll take it. Much more problematic than that POS exiting africa.

nonsense...theres currently a ridge to the north for the next 24-48 hours

My pride took a huge hit and I have egg all over my face. My post looks so stupid and I have no idea what Im talking about. I mean there is a ....wait a second WTF? Over the next 96 hours? Huh? Hour 72 shows what? Which is within 96 hours? Son of a! Those darn facts just ruined my apology!

[wxsmwhrms]

My pride took a huge hit and I have egg all over my face. My post looks so stupid and I have no idea what Im talking about. I mean there is a ....wait a second WTF? Over the next 96 hours? Huh? Hour 72 shows what? Which is within 96 hours? Son of a! Those darn facts just ruined my apology!

Your original post was nonsense. The quicker the system organizes the LESS likely the system is to move north as a well organized system will be guided more quickly to the W and WNW by the ridging currently over the area. Jorge said there would be ridging for the next 24-48 hours - posting a 72 hour forecast is not the way to refute that claim. Clearly, if a system festers out there into the day 3-5 period without significant development before organizing, then it is more likely to be carried north or even NNE by the digging trough.

You made a similar nonsense post on the Atlantic tropical thread about a day ago where you said a "persistent weakness near 50W" was going to protect the US from any landfalls. First off, there is no "persistent" weakness shown in the model forecasts at any point in the next 2 weeks. In fact, there is particularly strong ridging in that area for much of the period. Secondly, a weakness at 50W is only going to protect the US from landfalls from systems that strongly develop well east in the tropical Atlantic. Any more slowly organizing system will be able to bypass a weakness at that longitude and move west.

As you are someone who is apparently new to the board, I would respectfully suggest a bit more humility and less bold statements. There are a tremendous amount of people on this board with years and decades of tropical experience, such as Jorge (wxmx), from whom you can learn.

[Superstorm93]

It's probably my OCD, but the amount of ensembles pointing eastward is a bit hard to ignore. Especially since these are my ensembles of choice for the tropics...

~~~Now when you throw the FIM ensembles in, that when you get something more aggressive. (13 out of 20 ensembles have a organized system from TD-C1 strength)

GFS EnKF ensembles ellipses track

[Ed Lizard]

^^ Interesting site. members 1 and 7 are interesting. 7 seems possible, 1, how a storm turns NW, not sure how that happens based on what heights would seem to be, but the model is smarter than I am...

[Ed Lizard]

_{Unrelated to model wars and steering, convection has become quite sparse. MIMIC-TPW doesn't seem to offer a reason, as far as any dry air issues.}

[wxmx]

I still think if this develops quick enough that it should go N and not wnw or even NW like the NHC says.

OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

You are saying the NHC will probably be wrong because you think it will move N in the next 48 hours, not WNW or NW like the NHC says. You bring up a trough @96 which is way outside the NHC time range. Main steering mechanism next 48 hours is a ridge over the N GoM. So yeah, your affirmation is nonsense.

[wxmx]

0z GFS...it's back to stronger this run...probably a strong TS...still not picked up by the trough

[Amped]

00z gfs moves the first center inland, then a new one seems to reform.

[gulfcane]

Your original post was nonsense. The quicker the system organizes the LESS likely the system is to move north as a well organized system will be guided more quickly to the W and WNW by the ridging currently over the area. Jorge said there would be ridging for the next 24-48 hours - posting a 72 hour forecast is not the way to refute that claim. Clearly, if a system festers out there into the day 3-5 period without significant development before organizing, then it is more likely to be carried north or even NNE by the digging trough.

You made a similar nonsense post on the Atlantic tropical thread about a day ago where you said a "persistent weakness near 50W" was going to protect the US from any landfalls. First off, there is no "persistent" weakness shown in the model forecasts at any point in the next 2 weeks. In fact, there is particularly strong ridging in that area for much of the period. Secondly, a weakness at 50W is only going to protect the US from landfalls from systems that strongly develop well east in the tropical Atlantic. Any more slowly organizing system will be able to bypass a weakness at that longitude and move west.

As you are someone who is apparently new to the board, I would respectfully suggest a bit more humility and less bold statements. There are a tremendous amount of people on this board with years and decades of tropical experience, such as Jorge (wxmx), from whom you can learn.

1. No. The ridge builds back in after 96 hours and the door is shut for N movement. If it festers 3-5 days it is not likely to be carried N or NNE as the trough lifts out and the ridge builds back in. Go look at the 0z GFS. Better to get strong early and get picked up into the weakness before it is too late.

2. Go look at the 0z GFS. Persistent weakness at 50w for the next 2 weeks. Gordon just the beginning of the recurve train. Should be a few monsters after him that turn on a dime at 50w. Again, this is based on the GFS so we'll see what happens.

[Scott747]

Heh.

0z HWRF (Hector) -

[HurricaneJosh]

Heh.

[U_Thant]

1. No. The ridge builds back in after 96 hours and the door is shut for N movement. If it festers 3-5 days it is not likely to be carried N or NNE as the trough lifts out and the ridge builds back in. Go look at the 0z GFS. Better to get strong early and get picked up into the weakness before it is too late.

2. Go look at the 0z GFS. Persistent weakness at 50w for the next 2 weeks. Gordon just the beginning of the recurve train. Should be a few monsters after him that turn on a dime at 50w. Again, this is based on the GFS so we'll see what happens.

it's been a long time since I've seen such an utterly incorrect interpretation of the model guidance. 500MB heights over TX and the NW GOMEX drop by 30-40M from about 36-48 hours on out and do not rebuild at all through day 5. The GFS shows some ridging reforming over TX post-day 5 but the ECM doesn't show this at all. Both show more of a mid level col/over north of the system past day 3. A slower movement/development = farther northward track, while getting stronger early (through 48 hours) clearly favors a more westward track into old MEX.

[andyhb]

it's been a long time since I've seen such an utterly incorrect interpretation of the model guidance. 500MB heights over TX and the NW GOMEX drop by 30-40M from about 36-48 hours on out and do not rebuild at all through day 5. The GFS shows some ridging reforming over TX post-day 5 but the ECM doesn't show this at all. Both show more of a mid level col/over north of the system past day 3. A slower movement/development = farther northward track, while getting stronger early (through 48 hours) clearly favors a more westward track into old MEX.

I think his judgment has become blurred by his rampant pessimism.

[Scott747]

Convection is on the increase around the potential low. Alvarado station is just in view of the 6z guidance.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/alvarado/alvarado_ultima.php

[phil882]

Convection is on the increase around the potential low. Alvarado station is just in view of the 6z guidance.

http://smn.cna.gob.m...rado_ultima.php

Based on the latest loop, the system is quickly becoming better organized. It might have another 12-18 hours before landfall, but it will probably manage to regain TD status before then.