Srain Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Oops... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al072012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208151831 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Oops... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al072012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208151831 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END lol Way to stay on top of it cycloneye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 lol Way to stay on top of it cycloneye Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I don't like how TD7's remnants are causing so much hurtyhurtz among Tropical Dudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I don't like how TD7's remnants are causing so much hurtyhurtz among Tropical Dudes. I posted this locally about an hour ago. So it wasn't unexpected... HPC: FINAL... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ADDING A SPOT LOW APPROACHING BROWNSVILLE...TEXAS...DAYS 6 AND 7...AS PER COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IS INTENDED TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT IN THE MOST PRACTICAL SENSE...ADDS SUPPORT FOR INCREASING THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION IN THE MOIST FLOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Oops... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al072012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208151831 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Some weenie must have been pissed off that they deactivated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I don't like how TD7's remnants are causing so much hurtyhurtz among Tropical Dudes. Sometimes folks take things too seriously. Mid August and tension is building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Sometimes folks take things too seriously. Mid August and tension is building. Oh. There you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I was just staring at CIMSS loops of vorticity, and the apparent Eastern piece of low-mid level vorticity associated with the corpse of TD #7 actually developed over Colombia and was pulled up into the Caribbean by the corpse of TD #7. As you (Jorge) mentioned yesterday, this may not go completely over Central America, and it appears part of it, and the most convectively active part at that, is staying at least partially offshore. In an area of CIMSS analyzed light shear, and favorable UL divergence/LL convergence. But if something does develop in the Gulf, it will be from something that developed near, and was pulled into the Caribbean, by the corpse of TD #7, not the dead body of TD #7 itself, so it could easily be argued it would be TD #9, assuming they bother to upgrade 93L, which has unimpressive cloud tops but would otherwise seem to be at least a sub-tropical cyclone. GFS ensembles again have several members that generally support the op. Members #1 and #6 are especially "hawt" to look at over at the PSU e-Wall. Yeah, but I think part of what was once TD 7 will get absorbed...still, probably TD #9 as you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 I don't like how TD7's remnants are causing so much hurtyhurtz among Tropical Dudes. Sometimes folks take things too seriously. Mid August and tension is building. Not really hurtyhurtz, just my opinion of why this shouldn't be disregarded just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Not really hurtyhurtz, just my opinion of why this shouldn't be disregarded just yet. I was talking about teasing Steve and the other board... I'm all good with pumping the prospects of Ex TD 7/Invest/Reinvest into something. However I am getting a bit miffed with this stretch of anything remotely being interesting having a bulls eye down S of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Wishing the SSD floater on Disturbance 07 was centered a few degrees East... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Wishing the SSD floater on Disturbance 07 was centered a few degrees East... Centered around Roatan, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Centered around Roatan, IMO That isn't a bad center going by latest CIMSS vort products, I suppose. Best convection is somewhat East of that, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 That isn't a bad center going by latest CIMSS vort products, I suppose. Best convection is somewhat East of that, however. but tops are being blown away by the anticyclone near Roatan ... we need to voltronize the energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 The ECMWF has come in line somewhat with the GFS indicating a weak TD/TS developing in the BoC over the next 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 ECMWF has the remnant sticking around for at least 9 days while becoming a tropical storm at some point. FIM also has a pretty decent looking tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 NHC upped the percentage to 10%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Not purely the corpse of TD 7 or nearby energy, but all the globals seem to like something incredibly unimpressive on the NE Mexican coast. The Canadian has the least ennui. Purists may lift their noses at a potential minimal tropical storm, but if it rains on the lawn at some stage (and the decaying front seems likely to do some of that) I shan't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Never seen recon tasked for something that has a 10% probability on the NHC outlook. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0930 AM EDT THU 16 AUGUST 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-090 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73-- A. 17/2000Z B. AFXXX 0207A INVEST C. 17/1715Z D. 20.8N 96.5W E. 17/1930Z TO 17/2230Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Never seen recon tasked for something that has a 10% probability on the NHC outlook. WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0930 AM EDT THU 16 AUGUST 2012 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2012 TCPOD NUMBER.....12-090 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73-- A. 17/2000Z B. AFXXX 0207A INVEST C. 17/1715Z D. 20.8N 96.5W E. 17/1930Z TO 17/2230Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT Easily cancelled tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Not a whole lot of changes via the 12Z operational GFS regarding a developing tropical system in or near the Western Gulf. What is a tad different is the rainfall and a slow creep inland with each run of that model. Some of the totals suggested by the GFS are nearing the 15 inch mark along the NE Mexico/S Texas Gulf Coastal waters and 5-10 inches along the Middle Texas Coast offshore. Inland totals are less as suggested by the GFS, but that model has shifted some better moisture inland and a robust 700mb level along the US 59 Corridor. That said there appears to be abundant deep tropical moisture available and various meso features that cannot be identified or model at this range will be the major fly in the ointment. As we know, tropical downpours are capable of dumping a lot of rainfall very quickly and that may well be the theme as we head toward the late weekend/early to mid next week timeframe. The 12Z Euro has come rather similar to what the 00Z run suggested. That model tries to develop a weak surface low near Tampico and slowly moves the 850mb vorticity N along the Mexican Gulf Coast. It is also note worthy that the Euro remains rather aggressive suggesting the frontal boundary will move offshore before stalling and retreating back N near hour 168 as a weak broad surface reflection meanders near Brownsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Not a whole lot of changes via the 12Z operational GFS regarding a developing tropical system in or near the Western Gulf. What is a tad different is the rainfall and a slow creep inland with each run of that model. Some of the totals suggested by the GFS are nearing the 15 inch mark along the NE Mexico/S Texas Gulf Coastal waters and 5-10 inches along the Middle Texas Coast offshore. Inland totals are less as suggested by the GFS, but that model has shifted some better moisture inland and a robust 700mb level along the US 59 Corridor. That said there appears to be abundant deep tropical moisture available and various meso features that cannot be identified or model at this range will be the major fly in the ointment. As we know, tropical downpours are capable of dumping a lot of rainfall very quickly and that may well be the theme as we head toward the late weekend/early to mid next week timeframe. The 12Z Euro has come rather similar to what the 00Z run suggested. That model tries to develop a weak surface low near Tampico and slowly moves the 850mb vorticity N along the Mexican Gulf Coast. It is also note worthy that the Euro remains rather aggressive suggesting the frontal boundary will move offshore before stalling and retreating back N near hour 168 as a weak broad surface reflection meanders near Brownsville. Ultimately this becomes an intensity issue I think. At any point during the next 96-120 hours if this system becomes stronger and develops a mid-level vortex earlier than expected by the global models, it will be brought eastward by the mid-level southwesterly flow and brought inland along the northern Gulf Coast. Right now the models are threading the needle with the track because the feature just hangs along the coastline and does not ever become a robust cyclone. We saw a similar problem with Debby earlier this year where the system was very large and developed a well defined mid-level vortex after a large burst of convection. This allowed the system to be captured by the mid-latitude trough and swept eastward while the ECMWF was forecasting the mid-level vortex to develop more slowly and thus didn't get it picked up by the trough. Ultimately I think the solution the current global models are providing are probably not going to pan out. Either the system pulls farther inland than expected and dissipates over the higher terrain of Mexico, or is brought much farther east over the Gulf of Mexico in the medium range. The main societal impact at this time is increased rainfall across both Mexico and Texas, perhaps substantially so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Ultimately this becomes an intensity issue I think. At any point during the next 96-120 hours if this system becomes stronger and develops a mid-level vortex earlier than expected by the global models, it will be brought eastward by the mid-level southwesterly flow and brought inland along the northern Gulf Coast. Right now the models are threading the needle with the track because the feature just hangs along the coastline and does not ever become a robust cyclone. We saw a similar problem with Debby earlier this year where the system was very large and developed a well defined mid-level vortex after a large burst of convection. This allowed the system to be captured by the mid-latitude trough and swept eastward while the ECMWF was forecasting the mid-level vortex to develop more slowly and thus didn't get it picked up by the trough. Ultimately I think the solution the current global models are providing are probably not going to pan out. Either the system pulls farther inland than expected and dissipates over the higher terrain of Mexico, or is brought much farther east over the Gulf of Mexico in the medium range. The main societal impact at this time is increased rainfall across both Mexico and Texas, perhaps substantially so. Phil, c'mon-- you can't dangle that out there Re: a N-Gulf impact without sharing your thoughts Re: what it would be when it gets there. Out with it, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Ultimately this becomes an intensity issue I think. At any point during the next 96-120 hours if this system becomes stronger and develops a mid-level vortex earlier than expected by the global models, it will be brought eastward by the mid-level southwesterly flow and brought inland along the northern Gulf Coast. Right now the models are threading the needle with the track because the feature just hangs along the coastline and does not ever become a robust cyclone. We saw a similar problem with Debby earlier this year where the system was very large and developed a well defined mid-level vortex after a large burst of convection. This allowed the system to be captured by the mid-latitude trough and swept eastward while the ECMWF was forecasting the mid-level vortex to develop more slowly and thus didn't get it picked up by the trough. Ultimately I think the solution the current global models are providing are probably not going to pan out. Either the system pulls farther inland than expected and dissipates over the higher terrain of Mexico, or is brought much farther east over the Gulf of Mexico in the medium range. The main societal impact at this time is increased rainfall across both Mexico and Texas, perhaps substantially so. Just eyeballing the visible loop this afternoon, the low/mid-level vorticity seems to be stronger than suggested by the 12z GFS. With the convection in that vicinity, it will be interesting to see if things develop faster than the large-scale guidance suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Just eyeballing the visible loop this afternoon, the low/mid-level vorticity seems to be stronger than suggested by the 12z GFS. With the convection in that vicinity, it will be interesting to see if things develop faster than the large-scale guidance suggests. There's a distinct mid level low now, probably stronger at 700mb looking at the CIMSS products, and it may be building down, as low level clouds seem to be trying to converge where the low is. It's pretty compact (Lorenzo-like?). It's also quicker than guidance would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 Phil, c'mon-- you can't dangle that out there Re: a N-Gulf impact without sharing your thoughts Re: what it would be when it gets there. Out with it, please. Well there are several other complicating factors, including a frontal boundary that interacts with the vorticity from the disturbance and higher shear that is associated with the digging trough in the North Gulf of Mexico. When I say stronger, I am really implying more vertically deep. That doesn't necessarily mean it will be a well organized system, as Debby was a vertically deep cyclone (for part of its life anyway) despite being very disorganized. With that said, the door is open for a more substancial system than currently projected in the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 16, 2012 Author Share Posted August 16, 2012 The 6z EnKF ensembles TS wind probs to complement Phil's "much farther east" possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 There's a distinct mid level low now, probably stronger at 700mb looking at the CIMSS products, and it may be building down, as low level clouds seem to be trying to converge where the low is. It's pretty compact (Lorenzo-like?). It's also quicker than guidance would suggest. An LLC is pretty obviously re-forming well out (relative to the previous NHC init points) in the Bay of Campeche, which changes everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 There's a distinct mid level low now, probably stronger at 700mb looking at the CIMSS products, and it may be building down, as low level clouds seem to be trying to converge where the low is. It's pretty compact (Lorenzo-like?). It's also quicker than guidance would suggest. Anyone remember marco? Yea it looks like the mid-level vortex is working its way down to the surface. The ECMWF captured this well in the 12z run, and it should be near shore by tomorrow afternoon. Not much time for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.