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Ex-Helene remnant trof

Superstorm93

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

No one seems interested in a Tamaulipas/S Texas/Texas Hill Country and points E flood potential, but I digress. The GFS is certainly persistent bringing our area some much needed rainfall.

I mean, tropical moisture overrunning a stalled boundary isn't the sexiest thing in meteorology

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

:weenie:

Indeed, I didn't own my house yet then, but Bret didn't rain on it much, per check of Wiki rainfall map. Rita was a disappointment that way as well. Half a day w/o electricity, and not much more (maybe less) than an inch to show for it.

Wind w/o rain isn't much fun.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Indeed, I didn't own my house yet then, but Bret didn't rain on it much, per check of Wiki rainfall map. Rita was a disappointment that way as well. Half a day w/o electricity, and not much more (maybe less) than an inch to show for it.

Wind w/o rain isn't much fun.

Yep. Rita dried out what was left in our lawn with 40 mph sustained winds and then temps soaring to 102°F the day after...

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

The area I commented above is becoming the dominant one...remnants of td 7 are diving SW into Nicaragua, while the aforementioned area is moving NW, in a Fujiwhara interaction... looks like the GFS might score a coup once more.

That is exactly what is happening... the GFS has preformed admirably on this event so far, and the feature is located both on the backside of a CCKW and in a favorable MJO state. The only thing that might prevent development over the next few days is land interaction.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

HPC Final Afternoon Update:

FINAL...

MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL

ISSUANCE. THE 12Z/14 GFS AND GEFS MEAN HAVE TRENDED STRONGLY

TOWARD THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...NOW

INDICATING PRIMACY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST.

COORDINATION WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER RESULTED IN THE

INTRODUCTION OF A SPOT TROPICAL LOW CREEPING UP THE ATLANTIC SIDE

OF THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH MID PERIOD. EVEN IF NO ORGANIZED

SYSTEM DEVELOPS...THE TROPICAL FEED MAY WELL INTERSECT THE EDGE OF

THE WESTERLIES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...ENHANCING RAINFALL THERE.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

One of the better disco's I've seen in a while from CRP this afternoon...;)

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EARLY IN THE PERIOD HIGH

PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS

CONTINUING. THE RIDGE WEAKENS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ALLOWING MOISTURE

TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. 700 MB TEMPS REMAIN PRETTY WARM

THROUGH FRIDAY AND WITH MOISTURE JUST BEGINNING TO STREAM IN THINK

CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED SO HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON POPS IN THE

NORTHEAST ZONES. AT A MINIMUM...SHOULD SEE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION

RETURN FOR SAT/SUN PERIOD. ...AND THAT`S WHERE THINGS START TO GET

INTERESTING. PLENTY OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FOR FORECAST LATE WEEKEND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT GOING TO SIDE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER AT THIS

POINT...WITH TOO MANY FACTORS THAT COULD CHANGE THINGS. THE GFS

MODEL HAS BEEN PERFORMING WELL FOR TROPICAL SYSTEMS SO FAR THIS

SEASON...SO CERTAINLY DON/T WANT TO ENTIRELY DISCOUNT IT. BUT THINK

TOO MANY THINGS HAVE TO HAPPEN PERFECTLY TO PUT TOO MUCH FAITH IN IT

AT THIS POINT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN QUESTION IS THE REMNANT LOW OF

TD SEVEN...AND IS CURRENTLY EAST OF NICARAGUA. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY

COMPONENT IN THE STEERING FLOW THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWEST

SKIMMING HONDURAS/NICARAGUA...AND THEN LIKELY ACROSS THE YUCATAN

INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THAT POINT...STEERING AND SPEED WILL BE

BIG FACTORS IN DETERMINING WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. GFS IS ASSUMING A

SLOWER MOVEMENT ALLOWING THE WAVE...AND POSSIBLY CLOSED LOW TO GET

CAUGHT UP IN A TROUGH THAT IS PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD...BUT THEN

STRENGTHENS THE LOW ENOUGH TO BREAK OUT OF THE TROUGH AND CONTINUE A

WESTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THINK THIS ALL LINING

UP PERFECTLY IS A STRETCH AT THIS POINT...BUT AGAIN...THE GFS HAS

BEEN DOING WELL. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE WAVE THROUGH

THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN INLAND ACROSS MEXICO MUCH MORE

QUICKLY. IT THEN PUSHES A COLD FRONT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SOUTH

TEXAS...WHICH DOESNT HAPPEN TOO OFTEN THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO BOTH

OPTIONS FOR GUIDANCE ARE ON EXTREME ENDS...SO FOR NOW...GOING PRETTY

NEUTRAL. THINK RAIN CHANCES INCREASE REGARDLESS...AS THE RIDGE

WEAKENS. TEMPS SHOULD ALSO DECREASE A BIT AT LEAST...MAYBE

MORE...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER/RAIN...AND COOLER TEMPS OFF THE

SURFACE. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO FALL INTO PLACE AND THIS

FORECAST WILL /HOPEFULLY/ ONLY GET MORE CLEAR AS WE GO.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

NWS BRO AFD suggests glass 29/64th's optimistic...

BY THE WEEKEND...UPPER HIGH OVER THE WEST WITH A DEEP TROUGH

COVERING MOST OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WILL HELP FRONT

MOVE FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY LATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FURTHER SOUTH...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 WILL MOVE OVER THE

BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH MODELS HINTING ON BECOMING A CLOSED LOW BY LATE

SUNDAY. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN FROM DAY 6 AS

GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM NORTH ALONG THE COASTLINE WHILE ECMWF KEEPS A

VERY DISORGANIZED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL

AMERICA. LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS FOR DAY 6 AT THIS TIME WITH AN

INCREASE IN WINDS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND

POPS ALONG THE COASTLINE. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THIS

TROPICAL WAVE WILL DO ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IF IT

DOES.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Will not reform.

Probably not, but CIMMS products do indicate the vorticity at low and mid levels extending back over open water, and stronger than the inland vorticity. (See wxmx comments above) CIMMS low level steering would suggest the low/mid level vorticity still offshore might manage to stay mostly off Central America, due to the slightly cyclonic flow around the inland vorticity, apparently.

I'd sure like to see convection offshore. Most is inland. Based on 6Z GFS and ensembles not as enthusiastic as 0Z GFS and ensembles, and lack of other globals suggesting the solution, down to 5/16th glass full optimistic on ex-TD 7 or a related entity. With the original remnant vorticity inland, and something does develop from the vorticity still over water, it may not keep the number 7.

The 0Z GFS at least holds out hope for a named storm and some beneficial rains...

post-138-0-94068800-1345031357_thumb.gif

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

12z GFS stalls it just NE of Tampico...very close to the warm eddy over there...and it shows that it's a good place to park...though Im not sure I want to waste "my eddy" on it ;)

Looks very interesting... I'd like to see something get to the BoC before I can get more confortable making any sort of outlook. However, if the system tracks just a touch further east than expected, its likely to get caught up in the southwesterly flow on the backside of the mid-level ridge and track northeast.

241tmk0.gif

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PSUBlizzicane2007

PSUBlizzicane2007

Posted
Posted

That warm eddy will really help the disorganized, overrunning rains!

I think people in this thread holding out hopes this is going to develop should have moved on a day or so ago.

I mean this has been the least interesting item to be classified this year, and the models predicted its demise and lack of development pretty well.

Move on.... let it die in peace. Time to look forward to new systems.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

That warm eddy will really help the disorganized, overrunning rains!

Some of the most happening weather ever in Houston has involved overrunning rains. I was in Austin, and remember the mid level remnants of East Pac Hurricane Rosa over a shallow cold dome, and, since it set the San Jacinto river on fire, I know Steve remembers and cherishes it.

And don't get me started on the excitement of large and sloppy Tropical Storm Frances. 14 years ago. Time flies.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

I think people in this thread holding out hopes this is going to develop should have moved on a day or so ago.

I mean this has been the least interesting item to be classified this year, and the models predicted its demise and lack of development pretty well.

Move on.... let it die in peace. Time to look forward to new systems.

BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_DEACTIVATE_al072012.ren

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201208150600

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

I think people in this thread holding out hopes this is going to develop should have moved on a day or so ago.

I mean this has been the least interesting item to be classified this year, and the models predicted its demise and lack of development pretty well.

Move on.... let it die in peace. Time to look forward to new systems.

It's not quite dead yet, and with both the GFS and Euro forecasting it to be under an upper level ridge and a bit further east (over water) than previous runs, with weak steering currents (Euro holds ridging a bit longer, hence it moving over land quicker), this can be something, especially if we are talking about the BoC, one of the top cyclogenesis zones in the basin. It may just be a rainmaker or weak depression/TS, but by no means it's dead, IMO.

What other systems? 93L/TD8? Yawn...Wave over Africa? Most probably fish food.

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

It's not quite dead yet, and with both the GFS and Euro forecasting it to be under an upper level ridge and a bit further east (over water) than previous runs, with weak steering currents (Euro holds ridging a bit longer, hence it moving over land quicker), this can be something, especially if we are talking about the BoC, one of the top cyclogenesis zones in the basin. It may just be a rainmaker or weak depression/TS, but by no means it's dead, IMO.

What other systems? 93L/TD8? Yawn...Wave over Africa? Most probably fish food.

Yes. Yes. Yes.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

It's not quite dead yet, and with both the GFS and Euro forecasting it to be under an upper level ridge and a bit further east (over water) than previous runs, with weak steering currents (Euro holds ridging a bit longer, hence it moving over land quicker), this can be something, especially if we are talking about the BoC, one of the top cyclogenesis zones in the basin. It may just be a rainmaker or weak depression/TS, but by no means it's dead, IMO.

What other systems? 93L/TD8? Yawn...Wave over Africa? Most probably fish food.

I was just staring at CIMSS loops of vorticity, and the apparent Eastern piece of low-mid level vorticity associated with the corpse of TD #7 actually developed over Colombia and was pulled up into the Caribbean by the corpse of TD #7. As you (Jorge) mentioned yesterday, this may not go completely over Central America, and it appears part of it, and the most convectively active part at that, is staying at least partially offshore. In an area of CIMSS analyzed light shear, and favorable UL divergence/LL convergence.

But if something does develop in the Gulf, it will be from something that developed near, and was pulled into the Caribbean, by the corpse of TD #7, not the dead body of TD #7 itself, so it could easily be argued it would be TD #9, assuming they bother to upgrade 93L, which has unimpressive cloud tops but would otherwise seem to be at least a sub-tropical cyclone. GFS ensembles again have several members that generally support the op. Members #1 and #6 are especially "hawt" to look at over at the PSU e-Wall.

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