Ex-Helene remnant trof

[phil882]

Radar certainly still hints there is a circulation, although probably exposed given the current shear over the system.

[turtlehurricane]

Too much shear and dry air (note the arc clouds) for now but it isn't completely dead.

[Ed Lizard]

Not really trackable w/ 850 mb vorticity, but following 700 mb RH/height fields, GFS weak tropical cyclone off Matamoros is ex-TD #7.

Knowing global dynamic models with resolution required to run a global model out 8 days at full resolution, there is a possibility the system in the Gulf would be stronger than 1007 mb in seven days, and because it could be stronger, trusting GFS forecast position explicitly may result in a bad forecast. Even if GFS does accurately, in this case, predict a 1007 mb TD or minimal storm, 8 day model guidance is only guidance.

All I would say at this point is glass 13/32nd optimistic of regeneration to something, and if regeneration occurs, anywhere from BoC to SW Florida is a potential target. In my amateur, no met degree, interested hobbyist opinion. Obviously, we all want something i-Cyclone can chase, and for video quality, daytime and Florida would be ideal. But, as they say in France,

"¿Quien Sabes?"

Attachment below is hence general guidance, not an explicit forecast of either intensity or actual location. The concept of global dynamic models as guidance, not exact perfect progs.

[Amped]

Not mad at NHC if it does become a threat they can always redeclare it.

Earnesto probably should have been an open wave at some point too.

[salbers]

Wasn't Katrina a reborn storm?

[turtlehurricane]

Wasn't Katrina a reborn storm?

Yup, tropical depression 10. http://www.nhc.noaa....2005/TEN.shtml?

THERE IS

STILL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND

A QUIKSCAT PASS...BUT IT IS WEAK...20-25 KT. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM

DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER

MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ADVISORIES

ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY

RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR

REGENERATION...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY

MONITORED.

[carley5]

Wasn't Katrina a reborn storm?

i hope you arent comparing pitiful td7 to katrina, lol. here is katrinas track

http://weather.unisy...RINA/track.dat. once it was declared a depression it never went back to being an open wave. you may be thinking of andrew. as an aside, someone posted yesterday the MJO is favorable now. will things improve?

oops, i was wrong.

[Amped]

i hope you arent comparing pitiful td7 to katrina, lol. here is katrinas track

http://weather.unisy...RINA/track.dat. once it was declared a depression it never went back to being an open wave. you may be thinking of andrew. as an aside, someone posted yesterday the MJO is favorable now. will things improve?

It was TD 10 vs TD12 that was the debate. TD 10 dissipated on the 14th, but TD12 (Katrina) wasn't declared until the 23rd.

[salbers]

I forget the name of the predecessor depression (TD10 sounds reasonable), but I do note (and may be able to recover) the satellite animations of the entire trek across the Atlantic. It was fairly continuous with something being there, even though it was unnamed for a length of time.

BTW, the Unisys link two posts above isn't working for me.

[carley5]

it was a link for katrinas track. i didnt realize there were 2 tropical depressions.

[Srain]

I made mention early this morning the Central/Western sub Texas/Mexico/New Mexico/Louisiana thread re: the remnants of TD 7 for the later half of the upcoming week in our neck of the woods. The 12Z GFS and Euro have continued those trends and NWS BRO, HGX, CRP and EWX have made mention this afternoon concerning increasing moisture and the potential for a cyclone heading N from the Western Gulf. We will see. What raises an eyebrow is the deep trough digging S into the MS and TN Valley. The ridge is further displaced to the W opening a weakness across the Eastern half of Texas and Louisiana as well. Could be a slopgyre reduex...

[Ed Lizard]

I made mention early this morning the Central/Western sub Texas/Mexico/New Mexico/Louisiana thread re: the remnants of TD 7 for the later half of the upcoming week in our neck of the woods. The 12Z GFS and Euro have continued those trends and NWS BRO, HGX, CRP and EWX have made mention this afternoon concerning increasing moisture and the potential for a cyclone heading N from the Western Gulf. We will see. What raises an eyebrow is the deep trough digging S into the MS and TN Valley. The ridge is further displaced to the W opening a weakness across the Eastern half of Texas and Louisiana as well. Could be a slopgyre reduex...

To add on to post 123 or whatever above (where I posted eight day 12Z GFS image as guidance, not an actual forecast) there is some ensemble support to Ex-TD 7 being in the Gulf. Euro means seem to suggest a few members also liking the BoC in about 8 or 9 days.

Semi-OT. I, personally, will reserve use of 'slopgyre' for big monsoon trough systems below about 20ºN, or that originate there from, although I think an NWS met in East Florida has the official trademark.

[wxmx]

There's an improved structure, and convection, though a little thin, it's not that badly sheared anymore, as SW shear has diminished. There's dry air to the west, and it could keep convection from firing continously. I would put the center of the broad circulation around 14/15N 69W

[phil882]

There's an improved structure, and convection, though a little thin, it's not that badly sheared anymore, as SW shear has diminished. There's dry air to the west, and it could keep convection from firing continously. I would put the center of the broad circulation around 14/15N 69W

Conditions across the rest of the Caribbean should continue to improve as the dry air slowly mixes out while the shear continues to decrease. The circulation still looks somewhat intact and we might be able to see some recovery as the system moves in the Western Caribbean.

[HurricaneJosh]

[Derecho!]

NHC has restarted model runs on 07 (As a "wave" which is odd) but it's at 30 knots.

[Ed Lizard]

I was about to post link to home made NASA floater. Oh, I'll do it anyway, it is a visible, but they have added 07L back to SSD web site.

Hot Link cool color IR enhancement. If it gets better, I'll upload a loop for posterity.

Still rather sheared looking, clearly still an open wave, but not terrible looking.

Edit - See below - Good news/bad news on BAM guidance- similar speeds and tracks suggest GFS forecast shear isn't prohibitive, but bad news is all the BAM models are almost due West into Central America...

[Srain]

12Z:

[wxmx]

Unless there's a consolidation of the low level vorticity closer to the convection, 07L is on course for a crash into CA.

[Ed Lizard]

Unless there's a consolidation of the low level vorticity closer to the convection, 07L is on course for a crash into CA.

LBAR is overdue to score the coup.

[Srain]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1045 AM EDT MON 13 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-087

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN

FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 72--

A. 14/1700Z

B. AFXXX 0207A INVEST

C. 14/1300Z

D. 15.5N 83.0W

E. 14/1630Z TO 14/1930Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[Superstorm93]

Mike V has passed down some info on the main tropical thread that the NHC is interested in Ex-TD7 for BOC reformation.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE MOVING OVER THE

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA

AND JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME

MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE

SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN. THIS

SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR

20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED

TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

L, 07, 2012081318, , BEST, 0, 148N, 765W, 30, 1008, WV

[yoda]

Bye TD 7

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...IS

PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS

NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE WAVE BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA

LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY

RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND

WEDNESDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SINCE THE

WAVE COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATER THIS MORNING...

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS

AFTERNOON MAY BE CANCELED

[phil882]

A shame, convection is returning with avengence as the dry air continues to mix out. If it can squeeze by far enough north to get into the W Caribbean, regeneration is possible.

[Srain]

The GFS solution is gaining traction and the Coastal Texas WFO's are taking notice. As Mike mentioned yesterday, a Bay of Campeche cyclone may well be in the cards and one reason why the NHC is carefully watching. The combination of a stalling frontal boundary and a TD or TS are classic heavy rainfall producers along the Texas Coast and we'll need to monitor future trends. We've seen this situation before down here and some have been major flood events in years past. We will see.

BRO:

THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT FOR THIS

WEEKEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AS THE GFS AND ECMWF

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF SENDS A FRONTAL

BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO NEAR THE COASTAL BEND. THE

GFS SOLUTION MOVES A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN

DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM INTO A SURFACE LOW. INHERITED POP GRIDS LOOK

GOOD AND WILL MAINTAIN 20 TO 30 POPS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN

CONVECTION.

CRP:

FORECAST SOLUTIONS DIFFER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE

ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT

WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS

WEEKEND...BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY

SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS

JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE

TROUGH AND HAS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON

FRIDAY. THE GFS THEN DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM INTO SURFACE LOW AND HAS

THE SYSTEM AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDE UP THE MEXICAN COASTLINE

TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS. WILL MAINTAIN 20% TO 30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

IN THE EXTENDED FOR SEA-BREEZE INTERACTION AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY STALLING...OR TROPICAL WAVE IMPACTING THE REGION FOR DAYS 6

THROUGH 8. WILL ALSO KEEP COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN

AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HGX:

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A FRONT INTO SE TX LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE

WEEKEND. FRONT REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT MON

WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING IT OFF THE COAST. THE GFS DISSIPATES THE

FRONT ON SUN BUT BRINGS A TROPCIAL WAVE INTO THE W GULF WITH

TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO THE UPPER TX COAST. PRECIP WATER

VALUES JUMP ABOVE 2 INCHES SUN INTO MON WITH THE GFS FORMING A

POSSIBLE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE LOWER TX COAST. STILL LOTS

OF UNCERTAINY SURROUNDING THE GFS SOLUTION BUT AT THIS POINT

EITHER MODEL SUGGEST 30-40 POPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT

WEEK. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FROM EITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF

SUPPORTS CONVECTION AND A WET PATTERN. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD DOWN

MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID/LOW 90S WHICH WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK FROM

THE UPPER 90S TO 100F THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

EWX:

AS A NORTHERLY JET DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS ON

SATURDAY...DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST

ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE DISTURBANCES MAY PUSH THUNDERSTORMS

OR THEIR OUTFLOWS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE

GFS MODEL TRACKS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL

CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE

THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST

GULF...IS EXPECTED TO LAND ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY LATE

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...CREATING A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD

INTO THE REGION. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY INTERACT WITH THESE

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DISTURBANCES...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND

ENHANCING RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY

NEXT WEEK. WITH THE ANTICIPATED RAINS AND TROPICAL AIRMASS...

HIGHS WILL LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION

BY MONDAY.

[Ed Lizard]

The GFS solution is gaining traction and the Coastal Texas WFO's are taking notice. As Mike mentioned yesterrday, a Bay of Campeche cyclone may well be in the cards and one reason why the NHC is carefully watching. The combination of a stalling frontal boundary and a TD or TS are classic heavy rainfall producers along the Texas Coast and we'll need to monitor future trends. We've seen this situation before down here and some have been major flood events in years past. We will see.

0Z and 6Z GFS verbatim are a little close to the coast to intensify much. But that would be ok, if they brought needed rain. A similar solution, but 100 miles further offshore would be interesting, no doubt.

Can't get too crazy optimistic until non-US models suggest a similar solution. Hints from Euro ensemble means that a member or two could be seeing it. But just hints.

One small silver lining sign, and easier to see on Caribbean SSD loops than floater, there may be rotation at some level a tad Northeast of where 6Z position extrapolated to 11Z might suggest, maybe a bit North of 15ºN and around 81ºW, which gives it a little more time and a slighlty better chance of avoiding a full collision w/ CA

[Srain]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0910 AM EDT TUE 14 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z AUGUST 2012

NUMBER.....12-088

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

3. REMARKS: FLIGHT INTO THE REMNANTS OF TD #7 FOR

14/1700Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0930Z

[wxmx]

There's a second maxima in vorticity associated to 07L, just to it's east, elongated from west to east around 13.5N just off Colombia's coast. This is the piece of energy the GFS is picking up after the main one dies over land. Should it become dominant and avoid CA, then there might be a chance of development in the BoC.

[wxmx]

The area I commented above is becoming the dominant one...remnants of td 7 are diving SW into Nicaragua, while the aforementioned area is moving NW, in a Fujiwhara interaction... looks like the GFS might score a coup once more.

[Srain]

The area I commented above is becoming the dominant one...remnants of td 7 are diving SW into Nicaragua, while the aforementioned area is moving NW, in a Fujiwhara interaction... looks like the GFS might score a coup once more.

No one seems interested in a Tamaulipas/S Texas/Texas Hill Country and points E flood potential, but I digress. The GFS is certainly persistent bringing our area some much needed rainfall.