Analog96 Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 So why bother even keeping it around? That's a really good question. It wouldn't be a horrible idea to cut a tiny portion of their budget by eliminating the NOGAPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Might just burn a name DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS. NOAA BUOY 41040...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES...80 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...57 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 That's a really good question. It wouldn't be a horrible idea to cut a tiny portion of their budget by eliminating the NOGAPS. So why bother even keeping it around? As mentioned earlier in this thread (at least I think it was this thread), its used to initialize the TC-COAMPS, which they all seem to be raving about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 So why bother even keeping it around? Because its biases are well known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 00Z: 0115Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012 WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RATHER SHAPELESS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE STILL T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A 1-MINUTE WIND OBSERVATION AT NOAA BUOY 41040 OF 31 KNOTS AT 2246Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING ABOVE 20 KT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS... WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OR CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/21. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 13.9N 54.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 14.1N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 14.3N 60.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 14.6N 64.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 14.8N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 I never thought NHC needs to issue warnings for a 40mph TS. Wind Advisory, Flood Watch, Gale Warning seems to cover it. TS Warning just confuses people. I think that is a fair point. In fact, until the late 1980's, there was no such thing as tropical storm watches/warnings. They were covered by gale watches/warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Because the Navy doesn't want to spend money on upgrading it. What are you talking about? They upgrade it fairly regularly, though they obviously have a different mission than a regular nwp shop (and much fewer resources). They do a tend to do a lot more da stuff than core model development. Ed, I will try to find some information when I get a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Similar to last discussion. Just a snip. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 500 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012 THERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IT IS UNCLEAR IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS DUE TO THE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A 30 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. Edit- re watches versus warnings- NHC coordinates, however, in case of foreign countries/territories, final decision on watches/warnings is by local governments and met services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Recon has found that TD7 is broad and ill defined, with a central pressure ~1012mb, but probably still closed, as the hurricane hunter has found a few, although weak, W wind vectors. It's also farther south than what was shown in the last advisory, closer to 13.3N. Also, clouds are warming on IR...All in all, I doubt that it will survive today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 They also found tropical storm force SFMR winds... So this is probably TS Gordan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 They also found tropical storm force SFMR winds... So this is probably TS Gordan. They may just declare this a vigorous tropical wave. The circulation is very ill-definied and the pressure of 1012mb is really not that different than the background ambient pressure. Also no vortex message yet probably means they dont think they have found a real center yet. We shall see though, all in the eye of the subjective NHC beholder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 REMNANTS OF SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION HAS OBSERVED SHARP WIND SHIFTS AT AN ALTITUDE OF 1000 FT...BUT IT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO LOCATE A PERSISTENT AND WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. THE WAVE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE RE-INITIATED IF NEEDED. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 22 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR THEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 13.3N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 RIP TD-7 AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION HAS OBSERVED SHARP WIND SHIFTS AT AN ALTITUDE OF 1000 FT...BUT IT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO LOCATE A PERSISTENT AND WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. THE WAVE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE RE-INITIATED IF NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 11, 2012 Author Share Posted August 11, 2012 That's all she wrote... ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...SQUALLY WEATHER STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Would have been nice if they had burned the name Gordon based on the 31 knot buoy report North of the center. That is such a 'meh' name for a storm. Now, Helene and Isaac, those are fitting names for a storm. 'Isaac's Storm', keep that in my reading room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 This isn't surprising. The global models just weren't as friendly towards TD 7 as they were Ernesto which they were fairly okay on. It's okay though... there will be more storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 This isn't surprising. The global models just weren't as friendly towards TD 7 as they were Ernesto which they were fairly okay on. It's okay though... there will be more storms! What are you talking about? You can't use global models to forecast tropical cyclones. :rolleyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Actually looking halfway decent right now... the system has actually slowed down somewhat today and probably has a closed circulation again. I'm actually quite surprised they downgraded the system earlier today with what looked like a closed circulation on the recon observations. In fact, Ernesto had a more poorly defined circulation in several recon passes last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 12z Euro isn't as dismal as previous runs or like the GFS...barely avoids Central America and gets into the GoH and BoC as a weak, but trackable disturbance. Saving grace could be the rather unusual ULL to it's southwest, moving in tandem trough the Caribbean, allowing to counter the TUTT to the N/NE in the upper levels. As for steering currents, it's only mid Aug, and it's a weak disturbance, so it should keep mostly W to WNW, so it's either CA or MX. If it gets to the BoC it might find a weakness, but I seriously doubt it, the central CONUS ridge has been strong this summer, and the disturbance should be far enough W to avoid any weakness between that and the Bermuda ridge. Also, with the NAO going strongly negative, that would probably translate to more zonal ridging in the Sern CONUS, with the trough farther N and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 12z Euro isn't as dismal as previous runs or like the GFS...barely avoids Central America and gets into the GoH and BoC as a weak, but trackable disturbance. Saving grace could be the rather unusual ULL to it's southwest, moving in tandem trough the Caribbean, allowing to counter the TUTT to the N/NW in the upper levels. As for steering currents, it's only mid Aug, and it's a weak disturbance, so it should keep mostly W to WNW, so it's either CA or MX. If it gets to the BoC it might find a weakness, but I seriously doubt it, the central CONUS ridge has been strong this summer, and the disturbance should be far enough W to avoid any weakness between that and the Bermuda ridge. Also, with the NAO going strongly negative, that would probably translate to more zonal ridging in the Sern CONUS, with the trough farther N and E. I'm looking at the latest model guidance, and both the GFS and ECMWF actually have easterly upper level flow over the Caribbean, which is in stark contract to the last several days. The TUTT doesn't dig down nearly as far south and quickly recedes. There is a decent chance TD#7 recovers under this improving upper level environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 I think it has a decent chance (~50%) of re-developing in the W. Caribbean or BOC. Upper pattern in the BOC days 5-7 looks favorable on the GFS and Euro. This WRF run agrees: http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/models/wrf_caribbean.html 12z Euro isn't as dismal as previous runs or like the GFS...barely avoids Central America and gets into the GoH and BoC as a weak, but trackable disturbance. Saving grace could be the rather unusual ULL to it's southwest, moving in tandem trough the Caribbean, allowing to counter the TUTT to the N/NE in the upper levels. As for steering currents, it's only mid Aug, and it's a weak disturbance, so it should keep mostly W to WNW, so it's either CA or MX. If it gets to the BoC it might find a weakness, but I seriously doubt it, the central CONUS ridge has been strong this summer, and the disturbance should be far enough W to avoid any weakness between that and the Bermuda ridge. Also, with the NAO going strongly negative, that would probably translate to more zonal ridging in the Sern CONUS, with the trough farther N and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 I'm looking at the latest model guidance, and both the GFS and ECMWF actually have easterly upper level flow over the Caribbean, which is in stark contract to the last several days. The TUTT doesn't dig down nearly as far south and quickly recedes. There is a decent chance TD#7 recovers under this improving upper level environment. Yep, that, and the troughing/ULL to it's SW, over Nern SA...which is forecasted to move in tandem with ex TD7, though it's not ideal, as it won't help much venting the storm, it's probably better than having westerly winds. Next 24hrs will probably be the worst shear wise, then they should slowly improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Agreed. It looks better now than it did for most of the past 3 days. Also, Barbados, at 13.1N, 59.5W (a little bit SW of the center) has reported winds with a westerly component the past 3 hours: METAR TBPB 111800Z 19012KT 9999 VCSH SCT010CB SCT034 BKN260 28/26 Q1011 METAR TBPB 111900Z 24016KT 8000 -SHRAVCSH BKN008CB SCT010 24/24 Q1011 METAR TBPB 112000Z 33004KT 9999 VCSH SCT008CB SCT036 BKN260 25/24 Q10 Another personal wx station confirms this, and also has had gusts of ~30 mph several times today: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ISTGEORG3&day=11&month=08&year=2012 Actually looking halfway decent right now... the system has actually slowed down somewhat today and probably has a closed circulation again. I'm actually quite surprised they downgraded the system earlier today with what looked like a closed circulation on the recon observations. In fact, Ernesto had a more poorly defined circulation in several recon passes last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 I've looked at the recon data and I'm very surprised TD#7 was downgraded. Lets look at a few recon passes. This was this morning, where you can see a slightly elongated, but obvious surface circulation. Maybe it wasn't well defined enough to get the VDM, but I'd find hard to dispute that this is a surface circulation. Now compare this with Ernesto. This was actually the first flight into the system before it was upgraded to a tropical storm. The main different I see is that the winds on the N side of Ernesto were much stronger, but in terms of the circulation organization, they are not all that different, with very few westerly wind barbs under 10 knots. In fact the first recon flight int Ernesto didn't generate a VDM either. In my opinion the organization of TD#7 is on par with how Ernesto looked at this point, so its unclear to be me why the NHC would downgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 NHC downgraded it of course it will stregnthen, just like it would weaken if they had upgraded it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 18z GFS changes it's mind. 1009MB but there is still a distinct vortmax in the western gulf day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 11, 2012 Share Posted August 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 The 0zGFS shows this possibly regenerating weakly in the Western Carribean in 54hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 I want some Ernie II action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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