Riptide Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Ernesto redux, with less time to suffer from satellite hallucinations and phantom eyewalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Trend here as GFS again kills it in Caribbean. Mighy enhance showers in the Yucatan in 7 or 8 days. Beyond resolution chop (which is what I am hoping for), enhanced moisture heads Northward in general direction of Louisiana in 10 days. Still perpetually glass 11/64th optimistic it can try to spin up briefly and bring rain to the lawn about August 20th. Might make Lesser Antilles with a name, or at least a number... ETA - PSU tropical GFS 4 panel tells the story, 3 to 4 days, seeing 10 m/s shear (~20 knots) and 500-700 mb mean layer RH along and ahead below 30%. But sunny side of the street optimist, although almost nothing is left, in a week, shear and dryness much less a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Trend here as GFS again kills it in Caribbean. Mighy enhance showers in the Yucatan in 7 or 8 days. Beyond resolution chop (which is what I am hoping for), enhanced moisture heads Northward in general direction of Louisiana in 10 days. Still perpetually glass 11/64th optimistic it can try to spin up briefly and bring rain to the lawn about August 20th. Might make Lesser Antilles with a name, or at least a number... And that makes sense. Once this enters the Caribbean the background low-level flow will rip the LLC to shreds. Counterintuitively, the best chance to get anything more than a strong TS out of this is for this to NOT get in the Caribbean west of the TUTT, but of course then the landfall chances dwindle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 And that makes sense. Once this enters the Caribbean the background low-level flow will rip the LLC to shreds. Counterintuitively, the best chance to get anything more than a strong TS out of this is for this to NOT get in the Caribbean west of the TUTT, but of course then the landfall chances dwindle. As a silver lining optimist, I am hoping general gist of GFS is true, and the weak disturbance is around the Yucatan in a week, in improving conditions of shear, moisture, and the usual enhanced convergence found in the far Western Caribbeam and starting to come North as suggested by the post lobotomy chop, with what appears to be favorable 850 mb and 700 mb steering at 8 days. For, say, a possible Louisiana hypothetical system, this could be entering as a wave about the time Bret entered the BoC as a wave, and could be a major hurricane 3 or 4 days later. Little weenie-wishcasting that last part, to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Looks like convection is returning to the circulation center, which is definitely closed at the surface. Look for a 5pm upgrade if trends continue. I should mention that this is unrelated to my post I made last night... the culprit that lead to the center becoming exposed briefly today was dry air intrusion due to northeasterly shear which has picked up as the subtropical ridge has intensified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 1-km floater up for our little invest A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 This experimental 36-km WRF, run by a Ph.D. candidate in meteorology at Colorado State Univ., suggests that 92L will not intensify significantly until about 55L, and then intensifies it significantly as it heads west across the Windward Islands and south of Puerto Rico. Seems that it may be picking up on the enhancing influence in the wake of the Kelvin wave, as Phil mentioned. I'm skeptical of that, given the shear forecasts west of 55W, but note that this WRF run keeps 92L far enough south to avoid some of the worst shearing affects of the TUTT. http://maloney.atmos...t.d01.av700.gif Main page for WRF: http://maloney.atmos...ealTimeWRF.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 I've never seen that model before. Thanks for sharing! FWIW, the NCAR WRF-ARW (36km @ 6z) has a small system approaching the islands as well. NCAR WRF-ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 We have a renumber... NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 We have a renumber... NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren Check the time on it (or the whole last page of this thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 We have a renumber... NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren Check the time on that one. I just refreshed and I'm still seeing 1354. ETA: What Super Storm said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 It's good to see the 12Z Euro come into alignment with the 12Z GFS (This seems to be a common refrain this year... wtf has happened to the Euro?) regarding 92L's future. All of this talk about "Ernesto redux!!!" is way premature, I think. As of this moment, it seems 92L will struggle much more than Ernesto... and any talk about it even making it to the western Caribbean is a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 It's good to see the 12Z Euro come into alignment with the 12Z GFS (This seems to be a common refrain this year... wtf has happened to the Euro?) regarding 92L's future. All of this talk about "Ernesto redux!!!" is way premature, I think. As of this moment, it seems 92L will struggle much more than Ernesto... and any talk about it even making it to the western Caribbean is a bit much. Ernesto struggled too before it became a tropical cyclone.... of course its not the same exact evolution (Ernesto originated at a farther south latitude), but they both were battling strong low-level flow from the onset. Ernesto: Invest 92L: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Check the time on that one. I just refreshed and I'm still seeing 1354. ETA: What Super Storm said. Check the time on it (or the whole last page of this thread) AL, 07, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 429W, 30, 1010, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, Nope, still looks like they reclassified this into TD #7 with the 18Z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 AL, 07, 2012080918, , BEST, 0, 137N, 429W, 30, 1010, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M, Nope, still looks like they reclassified this into TD #7 with the 18Z model runs. It just showed up now, I hit refresh then and still saw the 1300-ish time. Or it happened 30 minutes ago, roughly, after your first post... But now BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208091948 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Ernesto struggled too before it became a tropical cyclone.... of course its not the same exact evolution (Ernesto originated at a farther south latitude), but they both were battling strong low-level flow from the onset. I predict Josh records 974 mb in Buena Vista from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I predict Josh records 974 mb in Buena Vista from this one. Did I mention that when 92L/07L whatever they do is in the Central Caribbean, GFS forecasts 20 plus knots of shear and mean 500-700 mb RH AOB 30%? Can't go into detail why the Euro harshes its buzz, but I suspect similar reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 The TD7 advisory is up, 55 kts south of Jamaica at 120 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 It just showed up now, I hit refresh then and still saw the 1300-ish time. Or it happened 30 minutes ago, roughly, after your first post... But now BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201208091948 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Right around my post, which means I might have seen it first as I always run with no cache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Right around my post, which means I might have seen it first as I always run with no cache. No, actually. Your post was 31 minutes before the change. BUt if it makes you feel like you won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I predict Josh records 974 mb in Buena Vista from this one. I do like the track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I do like the track... The intensity based off the LGEM though. If this is a chase anywhere, and I remain under 1/4 glass full, it is Tampico to Tampa. Edit re: above MOREOVER...THE ECMWF AND GFSMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 The intensity based off the LGEM though. If this is a chase anywhere, and I remain under 1/4 glass full, it is Tampico to Tampa. Edit re: above Well, I'm not gonna be greedy at this point. That having been said, Ernesto beat the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Ernesto struggled too before it became a tropical cyclone.... of course its not the same exact evolution (Ernesto originated at a farther south latitude), but they both were battling strong low-level flow from the onset. Ernesto: Invest 92L: I'm not talking about before they became a tropical cyclone.... and I know that, and I know Ernesto struggled at times in the Caribbean as well... what I'm talking about is 07 is going to struggle more as a tropical cyclone, particularly in the Caribbean Sea than Ernesto did. I think there is a much higher chance 07 dissipates in the Caribbean vs. Ernesto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I'm not talking about before they became a tropical cyclone.... and I know that, and I know Ernesto struggled at times in the Caribbean as well... what I'm talking about is 07 is going to struggle more as a tropical cyclone, particularly in the Caribbean Sea than Ernesto did. I think there is a much higher chance 07 dissipates in the Caribbean vs. Ernesto. There were also multiple occasions where it looked like Ernesto was going to degenerate into an open wave. In fact, thats what most people were saying last week at this time when Ernesto first formed. Ernesto beat the odds because in several different occasions it developed robust convection which enhanced the upper level flow. For TD#7 to have a similar fate, it will need to develop good outflow/convective activity that can keep the westerly shear in check. Again, that is where the CCKW might come in. Will TD#7 be as robust as Ernesto... stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 18Z GFS I can't identify the wave 07L degenerates into on the 850 mb or 700 mb winds. Barely a hint of the remnant moisture on the 700 mb RH. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 it doesnt look very healthy right now. looked better yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Dry stomp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MississippiWx Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Evening, everyone. I'm a newbie to the site, but not a newbie to tracking hurricanes and weather in general. I was referred to this site from another and I can already tell this one is much more professional. I look forward to discussing the tropics/weather-in-general with you guys! With that said, TD7 seems to be struggling with the nasty 1-2-3 punch of fast forward motion, dry air, and diurnal minimum. Luckily for TD7, shear is a non-factor at the present time. Otherwise, I really doubt how long it could last. You could really add in SSTs as a fourth limiting factor, but it should move over waters that are 1C warmer later tonight. I think this, combined with d-max, should help encourage more convective activity tonight and give TD7 an extra boost. Overall, still looks like a difficult track ahead for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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