Deck Pic Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 The 500h anomalies were very different those years, 1935-36 looks pretty classic with a negative epo, ao and nao. It's a really cold look for the conus. 1947-1948 us a different animal with a positive epo look. and a positive ao. It's very anomalous with cold over new England that gets down into our area but the cold is more in new england than for the mid atlantic at least based on the maps I looked at. I think the cold was really due to the semi-permanent negative anomaly near and just south of Nova Scotia. thanks for posting..I guess there are differnt ways to get cold...I was more speaking generally to the idea that for whatever reason, when you get into an extended warm/neutral ENSO phase you tend to lean toward cold winters...for whatever reason, once neutral winters get as far removed from the Nina stink as possible they tend cold...not sure why since presumably enso isnt a big player.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 thanks for posting..I guess there are differnt ways to get cold...I was more speaking generally to the idea that for whatever reason, when you get into an extended warm/neutral ENSO phase you tend to lean toward cold winters...for whatever reason, once neutral winters get as far removed from the Nina stink as possible they tend cold...not sure why since presumably enso isnt a big player.. I recently learned how much you can do now with the years prior to 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 I recently learned how much you can do now with the years prior to 1950. I wonder how reliable those re-analysis data sets are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 What do you make of the latest MEI reading? It would seem to indicate moderate strength in progress/on the way for this winter. It's interesting because the general consensus / expectation is for a weak El Nino trimonthly peak or close to moderate strength (+0.8 to +1.2 type of thing). I've noticeed how high the mei is...It's the fifth highest June/July index on record...The oni was at 0.0...The latest an official el nino developed was ASO in 1976, 1977 and 1994...1968 and 1986 became an official el nino starting in the JAS period... year...oni...MJJ...official el nino period... 2012.....0.0 2009.....0.4.....0.5 JJA 2004.....0.3.....0.5 JJA 1994.....0.4.....0.5 ASO 1986.....0.0.....0.5 JAS 1977.....0.4.....0.5 ASO 1976....-0.1.....0.6 ASO 1968.....0.1.....0.5 JAS I think with the mei so high the oni could be above 0.5 by the ASO period...Otherwise it will be the latest an el nino developed if it does at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I think with the mei so high the oni could be above 0.5 by the ASO period...Otherwise it will be the latest an el nino developed if it does at all... Unless we flatline or see some sustained cooling, JAS should be in Nino threshold. Here are the Nino 3.4 Anom weekly values from the 1st of July to the 1st of Aug....0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 Unless we flatline or see some sustained cooling, JAS should be in Nino threshold. Here are the Nino 3.4 Anom weekly values from the 1st of July to the 1st of Aug....0.5, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.6 this year would be similar to 1968 and 1986 if that happens...All the late developing el nino years I posted had great winters up here in NYC... 1976-77 didn't have a KU event but was the coldest one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted August 10, 2012 Share Posted August 10, 2012 I wonder how reliable those re-analysis data sets are? I suspect for the overall pattern they are decent to pretty good though the anomalies probably are on the low side most of the time since they use an ensemble mean. They can use PV inversion techniques to get a decent idea of the pattern at 500h. I'm sure there was a pretty good mean surface low pressure system near or just southeast of nova scotia which is the reason for the negative anomaly. They certainly would not be as good as the ones after 1950 but still should be useful for getting the overall pattern right (I think but don't know for sure). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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