Winter 2012-13 (DJF) Forecast

[Ellinwood]

This is my initial forecast for winter 2012-13. I will issue a forecast update later this year... probably in October.

The monthly breakdown:

Winter 2012-2013:

METHODOLOGY:

Looked at the possible/likely ENSO forecast (around +0.9 for DJF holding steady or fading slightly) and matched years within +/- 0.3 of this. Analogs that had negative ENSO anomalies the previous winter and near neutral ENSO during the summer were favored. I then took the previous summers' temperature anomalies into consideration when weighing the analogs.

ANALOGS:

in [year (weight)] format

2006 (more)

2002 (normal)

1994 (normal)

1986 (normal)

1953 (less)

NOTE: Anomalies are against 1981-2010 normals.

RISKS:

- A persistent -PDO could keep the West Coast cooler.

- The +AMO could allow for warmer temperatures in the Southeast and southern Plains.

- The -QBO might trigger blocking earlier than expected and allow cooler temperatures to work into the north-central U.S.

- Drought conditions over the central U.S. might keep drier and warmer weather over the central Plains and southwestern Midwest.

[hm8]

Welp. Fingers crossed for February then.

Good looking forecast.

[Ellinwood]

Thanks, hm8!

Also, because I do this for all of my seasonal forecasts...

The previous summer from the weighted analogs:

Compared to the JJA season to-date:

2006 was the only analog that I really liked.

[SoCoWx]

Guess I have no reason to really look forward to Winter, if this is the case. When you consider that 06/07 is your heaviest weighted analog, that's a death sentence for the lower Mid-Atl. That Winter was basically a carbon copy of the train wreck we went through this past Winter.

[WidreMann]

Anyone looking forward to the "Rockin' February" is going to be sorely disappointed.

[easternsnowman]

December and January 06-07 were more extreme temp wise than your forecast and Feb was also cold like your analog. If we could get snow instead of sleet and with Dec and Jan not quite so mild we should be ok snow wise.......that is if there is no drought! I received over 20 inches of snow and sleet, but half of it was sleet!

[RaleighWx]

Nice forecast Ellinwood.

It is going to be a tough seasonal forecast. On one hand you have the very hot summer and drought conditions over the central US, which only naturally lead to a bent towards a warmer forecast, whether accurate or not. On the other hand you have the last El Nino winter which was frigid in 09-10 and also the frequent blocking which if it continues, (obviously not guarantee, but with a strong -QBO locked in for at least a few months) would lead to a cool risk for the fall early winter. In the past, El Nino winters have frequently gotten colder as the winter progresses, but if the blocking tendency lingers into early winter then the whole winter could be cold ala 09-10. But of course 09 did not have the catastrophic drought across the Plains/MIdwest.

Should be an interesting one to follow for sure!

[donsutherland1]

Very nice early discussion, Ellinwood.

Hopefully, there will be decent blocking this winter and a much better outcome than the non-winter of 2011-12.

[blizzard1024]

Everything I have read states that there is virtually no correlation between summer temps and

winter temps. ENSO is about the only factor that affects winter temp and precip if it is a strong

signal. For those in the northeast, the main factor in our winters is the phase of the NAO

which nobody has been able to reliably predict beyond 2 weeks. I used to try all this analog

stuff and it really does not work. This is a ballsy forecast, especially February. It is certainly

possible. But, the NH has been running very warm lately too...and the sea ice probably will

break another record low this year. I also don't buy the "research" that states the low sea ice

= negative NAO. I believe that was an attempt to scare people about global warming. 15 years

ago they were saying that global warming will lead to more positive NAO winters....and guess what

we had just had a string of postive NAO winters!!! So this is 180 degree knee jerk flip-flop

trying to equate the snowy cold mid atlantic winters to global warming. Well 2011-12 was

EPIC FAIL on this.

We certainly have rapidly trended toward a warmer climate in the last few years in NY. This likely

is a short term (I hope) rapid rise. Hopefully it will start to cool or at least slow down the pace

of warming. I am not advocating man-made global warming here. The cause does not matter

at this point to me. Basically we have been running warm the last few years. Spring and Summer

2010 were the warmest on record in upstate NY. Now all of the sudden this year we have gotten

even warmer. Its been crazy. Since November our climate has been like southern PA or MD!!!!!

The winter of 2009-2010 was great...and so was 2010-11 but they both really weren't that cold

compared to climo in upstate NY at least. Our warm winters seem to be torchers...with significant

positive anomalies and our "cold" winters seem to be only a couple degrees below normal. This

is the climate of the last 10 years or so. So based on this ...the die is weight toward a warmer than

normal winter at least in the northeast. However, the NAO could easily swing this to extreme mild

to slightly colder than normal. We have had some very snowy winters with above average winter

temperatures (slight positive departures). So the NAO is the key. If anyone could find a way

to predict its phase...don't share it on this thread because you could make millions

[ORH_wxman]

Everything I have read states that there is virtually no correlation between summer temps and

winter temps. ENSO is about the only factor that affects winter temp and precip if it is a strong

signal. For those in the northeast, the main factor in our winters is the phase of the NAO

which nobody has been able to reliably predict beyond 2 weeks. I used to try all this analog

stuff and it really does not work. This is a ballsy forecast, especially February. It is certainly

possible. But, the NH has been running very warm lately too...and the sea ice probably will

break another record low this year. I also don't buy the "research" that states the low sea ice

= negative NAO. I believe that was an attempt to scare people about global warming. 15 years

ago they were saying that global warming will lead to more positive NAO winters....and guess what

we had just had a string of postive NAO winters!!! So this is 180 degree knee jerk flip-flop

trying to equate the snowy cold mid atlantic winters to global warming. Well 2011-12 was

EPIC FAIL on this.

We certainly have rapidly trended toward a warmer climate in the last few years in NY. This likely

is a short term (I hope) rapid rise. Hopefully it will start to cool or at least slow down the pace

of warming. I am not advocating man-made global warming here. The cause does not matter

at this point to me. Basically we have been running warm the last few years. Spring and Summer

2010 were the warmest on record in upstate NY. Now all of the sudden this year we have gotten

even warmer. Its been crazy. Since November our climate has been like southern PA or MD!!!!!

The winter of 2009-2010 was great...and so was 2010-11 but they both really weren't that cold

compared to climo in upstate NY at least. Our warm winters seem to be torchers...with significant

positive anomalies and our "cold" winters seem to be only a couple degrees below normal. This

is the climate of the last 10 years or so. So based on this ...the die is weight toward a warmer than

normal winter at least in the northeast. However, the NAO could easily swing this to extreme mild

to slightly colder than normal. We have had some very snowy winters with above average winter

temperatures (slight positive departures). So the NAO is the key. If anyone could find a way

to predict its phase...don't share it on this thread because you could make millions

A cold February in the east is usually a pretty safe bet in positive ENSO events. There are some exceptions, but its definitely a pretty high correlation. The strongest El Nino events are usually when the cold was more limited in the east or non-existent. 2005 is an exception to this as it was a weak Nino and not cold in the east.

[Ellinwood]

Everything I have read states that there is virtually no correlation between summer temps and

winter temps. ENSO is about the only factor that affects winter temp and precip if it is a strong

signal. For those in the northeast, the main factor in our winters is the phase of the NAO

which nobody has been able to reliably predict beyond 2 weeks. I used to try all this analog

stuff and it really does not work. This is a ballsy forecast, especially February. It is certainly

possible. But, the NH has been running very warm lately too...and the sea ice probably will

break another record low this year. I also don't buy the "research" that states the low sea ice

= negative NAO. I believe that was an attempt to scare people about global warming. 15 years

ago they were saying that global warming will lead to more positive NAO winters....and guess what

we had just had a string of postive NAO winters!!! So this is 180 degree knee jerk flip-flop

trying to equate the snowy cold mid atlantic winters to global warming. Well 2011-12 was

EPIC FAIL on this.

We certainly have rapidly trended toward a warmer climate in the last few years in NY. This likely

is a short term (I hope) rapid rise. Hopefully it will start to cool or at least slow down the pace

of warming. I am not advocating man-made global warming here. The cause does not matter

at this point to me. Basically we have been running warm the last few years. Spring and Summer

2010 were the warmest on record in upstate NY. Now all of the sudden this year we have gotten

even warmer. Its been crazy. Since November our climate has been like southern PA or MD!!!!!

The winter of 2009-2010 was great...and so was 2010-11 but they both really weren't that cold

compared to climo in upstate NY at least. Our warm winters seem to be torchers...with significant

positive anomalies and our "cold" winters seem to be only a couple degrees below normal. This

is the climate of the last 10 years or so. So based on this ...the die is weight toward a warmer than

normal winter at least in the northeast. However, the NAO could easily swing this to extreme mild

to slightly colder than normal. We have had some very snowy winters with above average winter

temperatures (slight positive departures). So the NAO is the key. If anyone could find a way

to predict its phase...don't share it on this thread because you could make millions

After the first several sentences you kind of just went on tilt there for awhile... please save all that other stuff for another thread and just concentrate on the winter 2012-13 forecast here.

[uncle W]

the last 15 February's during first year el nino years in NYC...

year...temp...

1958...27.4

2007...28.2

2003...30.1

1995...31.6

1973...32.5

........................

1969...32.6

1964...32.9

2010...33.1

1987...33.2

1977...33.5

........................

1966...35.1

1983...36.4

1992...36.4

2005...36.5

1998...40.6

.......................

The first ten February's are below the average...The next five are above average...

[easternsnowman]

I think with an el nino the drought and heat in the mid west is not that important especially for feb providing it is not a strong one. Also we tend to have more blocking, in late winter and if we have in early winter we're golden!. 2005 wa not that cold for the east but it was snowy.

[JBG]

I think with an el nino the drought and heat in the mid west is not that important especially for feb providing it is not a strong one. Also we tend to have more blocking, in late winter and if we have in early winter we're golden!. 2005 wa not that cold for the east but it was snowy.

How does 1933-4 fit?

[Ottawa Blizzard]

How does 1933-4 fit?

I could be wrong, but I believe 1933-34 was a neutral signal.

[GaWx]

I could be wrong, but I believe 1933-34 was a neutral signal.

Actually, it was a moderate La Nina.

[aljareer]

Everything I have read states that there is virtually no correlation between summer temps and

winter temps. ENSO is about the only factor that affects winter temp and precip if it is a strong

signal. For those in the northeast, the main factor in our winters is the phase of the NAO

which nobody has been able to reliably predict beyond 2 weeks. I used to try all this analog

stuff and it really does not work. This is a ballsy forecast, especially February. It is certainly

possible. But, the NH has been running very warm lately too...and the sea ice probably will

break another record low this year. I also don't buy the "research" that states the low sea ice

= negative NAO. I believe that was an attempt to scare people about global warming. 15 years

ago they were saying that global warming will lead to more positive NAO winters....and guess what

we had just had a string of postive NAO winters!!! So this is 180 degree knee jerk flip-flop

trying to equate the snowy cold mid atlantic winters to global warming. Well 2011-12 was

EPIC FAIL on this.

We certainly have rapidly trended toward a warmer climate in the last few years in NY. This likely

is a short term (I hope) rapid rise. Hopefully it will start to cool or at least slow down the pace

of warming. I am not advocating man-made global warming here. The cause does not matter

at this point to me. Basically we have been running warm the last few years. Spring and Summer

2010 were the warmest on record in upstate NY. Now all of the sudden this year we have gotten

even warmer. Its been crazy. Since November our climate has been like southern PA or MD!!!!!

The winter of 2009-2010 was great...and so was 2010-11 but they both really weren't that cold

compared to climo in upstate NY at least. Our warm winters seem to be torchers...with significant

positive anomalies and our "cold" winters seem to be only a couple degrees below normal. This

is the climate of the last 10 years or so. So based on this ...the die is weight toward a warmer than

normal winter at least in the northeast. However, the NAO could easily swing this to extreme mild

to slightly colder than normal. We have had some very snowy winters with above average winter

temperatures (slight positive departures). So the NAO is the key. If anyone could find a way

to predict its phase...don't share it on this thread because you could make millions

hi

The Arctic vortex is also important (In all seasons) .

Stratosphere in the Arctic is the Heat Index in the northern hemisphere not the El Niño phenomenon.

thanks .

[ORH_wxman]

hi

The Arctic vortex is also important (In all seasons) .

Stratosphere in the Arctic is the Heat Index in the northern hemisphere not the El Niño phenomenon.

thanks .

What?

[GaWx]

Nice work, Ellinwood.

IF the Nino peak actually verifes as weak, which I think is most likely at this point (ONI peak of +0.5 to +1.0 is what I use for that def.) and with this weak Nino immediately following La Nina, then I'd expect a good bit colder winter in the E US and especially in the SE US vs. your DJF map. 1951-2 was the lone warm exception to a cold weak Nino following La Nina. It had a solidly +NAO and a slightly -PDO averaged over DJF. We're considering quite different analogs with mine being weaker with the Nino and all following a Nina. I have a feeling there will be lots of fun times this winter, at least in the SE US and quite possibly in much of the E US. We'll see what happens.

[aljareer]

What?

Yes.

See here : (Example)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/solar-variability

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/selectMap?lang=e

thanks .

[andyhb]

Nice work Ellinwood, I look forward to the results.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes.

See here : (Example)

http://www.metoffice...lar-variability

http://exp-studies.t...electMap?lang=e

thanks .

That doesn't explain winter variance on a predictable level at all...but I do find the study interesting.

[Nikolai]

Wasn't your forecast last year a complete bust? If it's a weak-mod Nino a cold February is a no-brainer but beyond that I think LR forecasting is mostly a crap-shoot.

[Ellinwood]

Wasn't your forecast last year a complete bust? If it's a weak-mod Nino a cold February is a no-brainer but beyond that I think LR forecasting is mostly a crap-shoot.

Indeed, my forecast for last winter was a complete bust, and LR forecasting is mostly a crapshoot.

Also, aljareer has a really odd posting style.

[WidreMann]

What?

I think it's a poem, perhaps some sort of allegory.

[aljareer]

That doesn't explain winter variance on a predictable level at all...but I do find the study interesting.

thanks .

There is a correlation between the increase of ozone in the lower stratosphere and the lower temperatures in the lower atmospheric layers .

And there is a correlation between the decrease in ozone in the lower stratosphere and the rise in temperature in the lower atmospheric layers .

Example : air temp anomaly in : 850hpa and 100hpa

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/cgi-bin/selectMap

[aljareer]

I think it's a poem, perhaps some sort of allegory.

I am a member in Japan Meteorological Agency.

Researcher in atmospheric physics .

( aljareer ) my name .

Thank you for these predictions .

[QVectorman]

I am a member in Japan Meteorological Agency.

Researcher in atmospheric physics .

( aljareer ) my name .

Thank you for these predictions .

Welcome to the board Alijareer! It will be nice to get additional perspective from other agencies around the world!

[Mallow]

I am a member in Japan Meteorological Agency.

Researcher in atmospheric physics .

( aljareer ) my name .

Thank you for these predictions .

ああ、そうですか。aljareerさんは日本語を知りますか。「aljareer」は日本人の名前がありません。変ですね。

[Entropy]

This is my initial forecast for winter 2012-13. I will issue a forecast update later this year... probably in October.

The monthly breakdown:

Winter 2012-2013:

METHODOLOGY:

Looked at the possible/likely ENSO forecast (around +0.9 for DJF holding steady or fading slightly) and matched years within +/- 0.3 of this. Analogs that had negative ENSO anomalies the previous winter and near neutral ENSO during the summer were favored. I then took the previous summers' temperature anomalies into consideration when weighing the analogs.

ANALOGS:

in [year (weight)] format

2006 (more)

2002 (normal)

1994 (normal)

1986 (normal)

1953 (less)

NOTE: Anomalies are against 1981-2010 normals.

RISKS:

- A persistent -PDO could keep the West Coast cooler.

- The +AMO could allow for warmer temperatures in the Southeast and southern Plains.

- The -QBO might trigger blocking earlier than expected and allow cooler temperatures to work into the north-central U.S.

- Drought conditions over the central U.S. might keep drier and warmer weather over the central Plains and southwestern Midwest.

Good forecast. I agree with the analogs you selected. 2006 is a very good match to this year, not only in terms of ENSO but also sensible weather in the U.S. and Northern Hemisphere and global SST patterns. I especially liked 1994 and 2006, since they both featured a negative DJFM mean PDO. 1994 was also a close match for QBO to date, which brings me to my next point. I wouldn't worry to much about the negative QBO at this point. It appears we've reached the biennial peak of the easterly phase and will be rapidly rising towards the positive, westerly phase by winter. It was pointed out to me that the QBO is a decent predictor of NAO, and the two closest matches to this year's pattern are 1994 and 2001 -- which were both disaster winters. 1994 is also a good ENSO analog, and 2001 not horrible to this point (was positive-neutral during the summer, but then dropped).

Here's a chart showing what I mean re: the QBO. The blue is observed QBO value for January 1993 through December 1994 (i.e. leading to the winter of 1994-95), the red is observed QBO for January 2011 through August 2012 (the most recent 20 months), and the green shows January 2000 through December 2001 (i.e. leading to the winter of 2001-02). As you can see, the current cycle has closely tracked the 2000-01 and 1993-94 events to date. What this suggests to me is that QBO will probably be positive (westerly phase) by sometime during the winter. I'm not sure if it will be there by December, but almost certainly by February. Historically, the negative, easterly phase has ranged from 11 to 19 months. So far, this cycle, there has already been 14 months below zero. There are three more months before December, which would mean we'd be at 17 months at that time. So it would take something not previously observed, to not see the QBO reach the positive phase by February.