JPFLL Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 that area is like the Everglades.. very low, swampy and wet.. i would imagine it will not weaken too quickly by the time it gets to Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Good day all... Costa Maya it IS for landfall! That would have been my original target! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Good day all... Costa Maya it IS for landfall! That would have been my original target! No disrespect but your call earlier in this thread was Punta Allen. Costa Maya was only an option if Josh had arrived much earlier. On top of that to my knowledge Josh is the only chaser that made a ballsy decision to go after Ernesto and given when he landed it's a hell of a feat that he has put himself in a position to intercept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 No disrespect but your call earlier in this thread was Punta Allen. Costa Maya was only an option if Josh had arrived much earlier. On top of that to my knowledge Josh is the only chaser that made a ballsy decision to go after Ernesto and given when he landed it's a hell of a feat that he has put himself in a position to intercept it. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Somewhere in-between where Josh is at currently and Bacalar is where Ernie is going to cross. If it jogs west then its' more towards Bacalar. Either way Josh is within 7 miles of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 +1 +2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Somewhere in-between where Josh is at currently and Bacalar is where Ernie is going to cross. If it jogs west then its' more towards Bacalar. Either way Josh is within 7 miles of the center. Quick question... how do you make the radar/google earth overlays? It is a simple powerpoint transparency job, or do you actually create .kml files? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Quick question... how do you make the radar/google earth overlays? It is a simple powerpoint transparency job, or do you actually create .kml files? I just tried to send you a PM with a "how to" but your inbox was full In short its creating its own KML in GE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I just tried to send you a PM with a "how to" but your inbox was full In short its creating its own KML in GE. Wow, I didn't know my inbox was full... I cleared it out if you want to send more detailed instructions. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Hopefully Josh is staring into a clear nighttime sky right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Close. Eye maybe a tad north of Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Close. Eye maybe a tad north of Josh. Looks like another direct hit for Josh if he stayed in Buena Vista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Based on Radar Josh is still 16 miles from the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Looks like another direct hit for Josh if he stayed in Buena Vista Who needs all these fancy hurricane hunters. Just send Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Who needs all these fancy hurricane hunters. Just send Josh. Wxmeddler, the GE image overlay worked really well and is pretty easy to do. You can see Josh is actually in good shape for a direct hit. Should be feeling the eyewall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Should come in sight of the Sabancuy station in a few hours - http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/sabancuy/sabancuy_ultima.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Should come in sight of the Sabancuy station in a few hours - http://smn.cna.gob.m...ncuy_ultima.php What are the chances Josh is able to make it for landfall #2 if things look interesting. Ernesto is on a very Karl like path right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It's Interesting (and ironic) that the IR presentation for the storm is going to be better right where Josh is than when it was on the coast. The man is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It's Interesting (and ironic) that the IR presentation for the storm is going to be better right where Josh is than when it was on the coast. The man is good. Those mountains to the south must have helped tighten the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Very impressed how well it is holding up over land any guesses what the strength will be when Ernesto heads into the gulf. Maybe a strong Tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 It's Interesting (and ironic) that the IR presentation for the storm is going to be better right where Josh is than when it was on the coast. The man is good. I suspect that a combination of the swampy landscape (supplying latent heat energy to the storm) and increased friction (leading to frictional convergence) is helping Ernesto maintain or even slightly increase in intensity. Remember, it's not land alone per se that causes tropical cyclone weakening as much as it is the loss of the latent heat reservoir from the water. A very swampy landscape can counteract that to a degree, and frictional convergence can help to concentrate the circulation and increase the storm's organization/intensity to a degree. The net effect, of course, is going to be determined by comparing the effects of less latent heat energy to the effects of frictional convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 What are the chances Josh is able to make it for landfall #2 if things look interesting. Ernesto is on a very Karl like path right now. Oy. If it keeps its structure like it seems to be doing and the forecast is optimistic I'm sure he will consider. With that said this has probably been one of the more mentally and physically draining storms that I can think of that he has went after. Whatever sleep he got in on both flights is about the only sleep he has had in the last 48 hrs. Throw a major as a second landfall and he might find that second wind real quick. A scenario like that just won't happen every often though it's likely a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 What are the chances Josh is able to make it for landfall #2 if things look interesting. Ernesto is on a very Karl like path right now. Obviously this is conditional on how well Ernesto maintains its inner core crossing the Yucatan, but assuming that Josh can logistically make it happen, he'd have to seriously consider this. The GFS and ECMWF both have Ernesto over water for about 36 hours, which is about what Karl did. Environmental factors look great, and both models intensify Ernesto substantially in the BOC. It could get really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OVER YUCATAN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION BEFORE IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 18-24 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE DRIVING MECHANISMS IN THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE AGAIN BY 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ERNESTO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Josh within 7 miles from the eye on the latest radar image.. Right on the N side. He may get stuck in the N eyewall. The eye is only a few miles wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I hope he can. I think there's a strong potential for the 2nd landfall intensity to be significantly higher than NHC shows for the (~80-100 kt), especially given how well Ernesto is holding up over land so far. What are the chances Josh is able to make it for landfall #2 if things look interesting. Ernesto is on a very Karl like path right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Scott, do you know if josh brought the B.A.S.T.A.R.D. with him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Scott, do you know if josh brought the B.A.S.T.A.R.D. with him? Unfortunately no. I believe he and Cory are redesigning some aspects of it. He did have some other equipment to get measurements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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