turtlehurricane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Josh is passing X Hazil Sur and heading S. Target right now is the junction that either takes you to Majahual or Chetumal. If Majahual is looking like landfall he will head that way. Any strategy for staying above the surge? 2 feet of surge already being observed well south of the center, could be more like 4 feet where Josh is heading. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND BELIZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Based on radar, either the eastern eyewall is weakening, or the western eyewall is so intense that the radar beam is being attenuated. EDIT: I'm thinking it's largely the latter, based on satellite presentation. Yeah, watching Belize radar, it's almost certainly attenuation due to the marked increase of echo intensity in the SW portion of the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Costa Maya should be in the north portion of the eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Josh can just post a barometer reading instead of a whole report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Going all the way to Majahual probably won't be an option nor would I recommend that he tried it no matter how ballsy he is. They have already evacuated that area as well (like Punta Allen) and no idea if the road won't be blocked off by the Federales once he gets to that junction. The time constraints have made things delicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Belize radar Josh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Going all the way to Majahual probably won't be an option nor would I recommend that he tried it no matter how ballsy he is. They have already evacuated that area as well (like Punta Allen) and no idea if the road won't be blocked off by the Federales once he gets to that junction. The time constraints have made things delicate. Based on satellite I'm guessing that road won't be usable soon. One option is to stay on the inland highway toward Chetumal and see how close to the eyewall he can get. Shouldn't be that hard if it starts going more west again. That's not exactly highland either though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Scott, I'm at Limones with no phone service. Should I take the turnoff to Costa Maya or continue toward Chetumal? If I commit to Costa Maya, tha is as far S as I can go. Please advise ASAP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Scott, I'm at Limones with no phone service. Should I take the turnoff to Costa Maya or continue toward Chetumal? If I commit to Costa Maya, tha is as far S as I can go. Please advise ASAP!! If you can make it to Costa Maya and you want to get into the core, go for it! The problem is things are rapidly deteriorating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Scott, I'm at Limones with no phone service. Should I take the turnoff to Costa Maya or continue toward Chetumal? If I commit to Costa Maya, tha is as far S as I can go. Please advise ASAP!! Give me a few minutes. Decent structure there if you stay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 If you can make it to Costa Maya and you want to get into the core, go for it! The problem is things are rapidly deteriorating. I don't think he can make it to Costa Maya since that road appears to run through a coastal swamp. That's a death trap sorta route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 If it had been an hour or two earlier, I'd have said go for it. Now, not so sure. Agree with turtle, the road and surroundings look a lot like the Tamiami trail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 If it had been an hour or two earlier, I'd have said go for it. Now, not so sure. Agree with turtle, road looks a lot like the Tamiami trail. The sea level rise site is particularly useful for this, multiple wash out points at 1 m, and surge might get up to 1.5 m. The road towards Chetumal looks good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Without you having a chance to recon that road towards Majahual I'm not comfortable recommending you heading that way. You can either stay in Limones and possibly get the northern eyewall if it jots to the W at all or stay at that that junction. Or head towards Chetumal. There is another small city, Buena Vista on the way that is an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Need to make a decision now. Want to get n the eye. Which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 If I take the Chetumal route, how far down? Where do I stop to get in the center of eye? Data connection very weak. Just tell me where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Need to make a decision now. Want to get n the eye. Which is it? Right now? That junction sees the eye. Limones in the northern eye wall. Buena Vista in the southern eyewall. With S being the trend over the last hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I wouldn't even rule out the eye going as far south as Chetumal if this S component continues. Of course I've been staring at that Belize radar so long I may be seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I dunno how accurate Google earth is but on the Coasta Maya road, about 3 miles east of the junction there seems to be a roofed structure. Just throwing that out there. By all means, stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 I'm near that junction-- a few km down the road toward Majahual/Costa Maya. So I should get back to the junction S of Limones to nail the eye and get that pressure reading? Yes? Barometer corrected to sea-level right now is 1003 mb. Center must still be a couple of hours away. Not that windy, even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I wouldn't even rule out the eye going as far south as Chetumal if this S component continues. Of course I've been staring at that Belize radar so long I may be seeing things. I second that, the southerly movement doesn't appear to be stopping. Chetumal is the best bet outside of somewhere just south of the border in Belize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 If you do go east, be VERY careful starting at about 8 miles. That's where it looks like the area most prone to washover starts, and it carries through a few miles past where the road turns from east to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I second that, the southerly movement doesn't appear to be stopping. Chetumal is the best bet outside of somewhere just south of the border in Belize. I wouldn't rule out the eye coming onshore farther south along the coast from Costa Maya near a little burg called Xcalak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Any josh as I'm sure you've been told we have one crappy radar site and no recon so its kinda hard to get an exact read on ernesto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanwx Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I know I'm late, but the road to Mahahual / Costa Maya looks like it goes through a tidal marsh based on Google Maps / Street View imagery. Unless you're skilled at navigating deep, rough storm surge at night, I wouldn't try it. Head straight south to Chetumal, perhaps the Belize border. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Is it too much to ask to get this guy a daytime storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I have the eyewall maybe 15 miles away from the coast. IR is looking nice with a very symmetrical CDO. If you get cored, I wouldn't be shocked to see high 970's with some wicked winds gust to 85 knots. Stay safe!! You have some really great mets helping you out here, so you should be okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Scott, should I head down to Chetumal? I just need you to tell me. Can't load pics too well, so it's like I'm blind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 I need someone to tell me where to go. Now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Chetumal looks too far S, Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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