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Chasing ERNESTO


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Josh is passing X Hazil Sur and heading S. Target right now is the junction that either takes you to Majahual or Chetumal. If Majahual is looking like landfall he will head that way.

Any strategy for staying above the surge? 2 feet of surge already being observed well south of the center, could be more like 4 feet where Josh is heading.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY

AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE

COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON

THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3

FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS

IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE

COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

RECENT REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE STORM SURGE

FLOODING OF MORE THAN 2 FEET HAS OCCURRED ON AMBERGRIS CAYE ISLAND

BELIZE.

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Based on radar, either the eastern eyewall is weakening, or the western eyewall is so intense that the radar beam is being attenuated.

EDIT: I'm thinking it's largely the latter, based on satellite presentation.

Yeah, watching Belize radar, it's almost certainly attenuation due to the marked increase of echo intensity in the SW portion of the eyewall.

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Going all the way to Majahual probably won't be an option nor would I recommend that he tried it no matter how ballsy he is. They have already evacuated that area as well (like Punta Allen) and no idea if the road won't be blocked off by the Federales once he gets to that junction.

The time constraints have made things delicate.

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Going all the way to Majahual probably won't be an option nor would I recommend that he tried it no matter how ballsy he is. They have already evacuated that area as well (like Punta Allen) and no idea if the road won't be blocked off by the Federales once he gets to that junction.

The time constraints have made things delicate.

Based on satellite I'm guessing that road won't be usable soon. One option is to stay on the inland highway toward Chetumal and see how close to the eyewall he can get. Shouldn't be that hard if it starts going more west again. That's not exactly highland either though.

post-645-0-22932600-1344387139_thumb.png

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Scott, I'm at Limones with no phone service. Should I take the turnoff to Costa Maya or continue toward Chetumal? If I commit to Costa Maya, tha is as far S as I can go. Please advise ASAP!!

If you can make it to Costa Maya and you want to get into the core, go for it! The problem is things are rapidly deteriorating.

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If it had been an hour or two earlier, I'd have said go for it. Now, not so sure. Agree with turtle, road looks a lot like the Tamiami trail.

The sea level rise site is particularly useful for this, multiple wash out points at 1 m, and surge might get up to 1.5 m. The road towards Chetumal looks good though.

post-645-0-49740700-1344387936_thumb.png

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Without you having a chance to recon that road towards Majahual I'm not comfortable recommending you heading that way. You can either stay in Limones and possibly get the northern eyewall if it jots to the W at all or stay at that that junction.

Or head towards Chetumal. There is another small city, Buena Vista on the way that is an option.

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I wouldn't even rule out the eye going as far south as Chetumal if this S component continues. Of course I've been staring at that Belize radar so long I may be seeing things.

I second that, the southerly movement doesn't appear to be stopping. Chetumal is the best bet outside of somewhere just south of the border in Belize.

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I second that, the southerly movement doesn't appear to be stopping. Chetumal is the best bet outside of somewhere just south of the border in Belize.

I wouldn't rule out the eye coming onshore farther south along the coast from Costa Maya near a little burg called Xcalak.

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I know I'm late, but the road to Mahahual / Costa Maya looks like it goes through a tidal marsh based on Google Maps / Street View imagery. Unless you're skilled at navigating deep, rough storm surge at night, I wouldn't try it. Head straight south to Chetumal, perhaps the Belize border.

Good luck.

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