Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Updated forecast track.... Has it going right over Tampalan (on the coast, not an option) and about halfway between Felipe Puerto and Limones on the 307. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Looking good on radar, but pretty far south: http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Looking good on radar, but pretty far south: http://www.hydromet....0-km-radar-loop Looks like landfall probably around 00Z-01Z timeframe. Hope Josh (and recon) gets there soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I wonder how good the road is going up from just north of Costa Maya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Looks like landfall probably around 00Z-01Z 06Z-07Z timeframe. Hope Josh (and recon) gets there soon... Fixed. We all knew what you meant. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 For anyone following. No recon has made it a little rougher with tracking. 18.8 86.8 with something closer to a due W heading over the last hour sound about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 For anyone following. No recon has made it a little rougher with tracking. 18.8 86.8 with something closer to a due W heading over the last hour sound about right? Thats what I'm seeing... it looks like the westward turn that had been anticipated is commencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 For anyone following. No recon has made it a little rougher with tracking. 18.8 86.8 with something closer to a due W heading over the last hour sound about right? Yeah, he should probably just haul ass as far south as he can get. Costa Maya isn't looking like a bad spot with the current track...hard to tell if it's a wobble or a turn and there isn't a lot of time to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Just now leaving Tulum. Slower going with showers but says there has been a break in the rain. Right now I have him buzzing for Felipe Puerto and then to head S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 For anyone following. No recon has made it a little rougher with tracking. 18.8 86.8 with something closer to a due W heading over the last hour sound about right? Are you asking for nits to be picked? I'll say more like 18.85 based on 2230 radar, but otherwise you are spot-on (no pun intended) for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Are you asking for nits to be picked? I'll say more like 18.85 based on 2230 radar, but otherwise you are spot-on (no pun intended) for sure. Nit picking is perfectly acceptable! Want to really get the core. As of now I'm thinking Limones which is right on the 307 near the turnoff toward Majuhaul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Fixed. We all knew what you meant. I think. No, I meant around 01Z. At least that is what extrapolation off of the Belize radar is showing. It's moved about .6 to .7 degrees of longitude in the last two hours, and if it keeps moving due W as it has been, that is about all the farther it is away from the western eyewall from being on shore as of 2245Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 No, I meant around 01Z. At least that is what extrapolation off of the Belize radar is showing. It's moved about .6 to .7 degrees of longitude in the last two hours, and if it keeps moving due W as it has been, that is about all the farther it is away from the western eyewall from being on shore as of 2245Z. And just to clarify, that is based strictly on a 2 hour extrapolation. It seems to have accelerated a bit as it has wobbled back west, and if it were to slow down are wobble around a bit it could very well be more like 02Z-03Z. I certainly can't see it being as late as 06Z-07Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Josh made it to Felipe Puerto and is heading S.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Does Josh have the kestrel with him? This might be one of the cases where landfall intensity will be largely unknown unless a good pressure reading is taken nearby. Recon won't be there before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Josh made it to Felipe Puerto and is heading S.... Great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Costa Maya is looking better and better all of a sudden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Jesus this last minute movements are effing irritating, not to mention it's almost turning into his favorite type of 'micro' system which sure doesn't help matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Does Josh have the kestrel with him? This might be one of the cases where landfall intensity will be largely unknown unless a good pressure reading is taken nearby. Recon won't be there before landfall. Yes. Let's just say there are some other folks interested with what he is doing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Costa Maya is looking better and better all of a sudden. Doubt I can get him there. Right now he is heading towards X Hazil Sur and I'll have him continue on S as of now. *edit* Doubt he can get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Costa Maya is looking better and better all of a sudden. He will have to haul butt to get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Costa Maya is looking better and better all of a sudden. That looks like the bullseye... probably t minus 2 hours before landfall. Google Maps has it being about 1:30 to get there from Felipe Carrillo Puerto in normal traffic. In these conditions I'd tack on another hour... yea its gonna be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Up to 85mph at 8pm Forward motion is up to 18mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 700 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA......LANDFALL EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 87.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 what. Lol wonder how that one slipped through, even at that it is more WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Josh is passing X Hazil Sur and heading S. Target right now is the junction that either takes you to Majahual or Chetumal. If Majahual is looking like landfall he will head that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Based on radar, either the eastern eyewall is weakening, or the western eyewall is so intense that the radar beam is being attenuated. EDIT: I'm thinking it's largely the latter, based on satellite presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Based on radar, either the eastern eyewall is weakening, or the western eyewall is so intense that the radar beam is being attenuated. EDIT: I'm thinking it's largely the latter, based on satellite presentation. Without knowing the radar specs I'd have to agree. Coasta Maya def looking like the place to intercept, or at least on that road that heads north out of the main city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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