Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 what do you think about punta allen? too far N? too isolated? If track keeps shifting N. Just going by latest track and giving an inland focal point to then access potential coastal targets. Actually the better inland point is Felipe Puerto (as it stands now) and he can quickly move if needed. Of course this could all change by the time he lands and picks up his car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The road out to Punta Allen is horrible, also it is very low elevation. Not a good spot for chasing IMHO. Yeah the coastal roads will be less than desirable and why I mentioned that road from Mahahual to Tampalam probably won't be an option by the time he gets down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good day all, I am thinking about Josh's options because I am a hurricane chaser myself. Indeed the Punta Allen "target" would be very dangerous and "dicey", mainly because of the night-time landfall. He should have plenty of time to get there as long as there are no flight delays. If he lands in Cancun at about 2:30 PM local time, it will take roughly an hour to deplane, get luggage, and clear customs. Then another half hour to procure the rental vehicle and such. This should put the time at about 4 PM local. I would give another hour for supplies (fuel cans, food, bottled WATER (important), and vehicle prep) ... I see him headed south on 307 out of Cancun at about 5 PM local. This is roughly 9 hours from landfall, with a 2 hour drive to the target area(s) by about 7 PM (7 hours from landfall). The the storm moving in at 12 MPH, and the core winds extending 25 miles from the center, Josh should be in breezy (low-end tropical storm forced) winds when he reaches the target area(s), as this will be within the edge of the storm's gale wind envelope. Given he makes his target 7 hours from landfall, he will have to wait at least 5 hours before seeing any hurricane forced gusts (74 MPH and higher), and this is given ONLY if he is NORTH or NE of the center as it's coming in, and he's less than 25 miles from where it comes in. There are barely any hurricane forced winds SOUTH of the storm center ATTM. Basically, it SEEMS like he's cutting it close, but he knows what he's doing and has plenty of time. The only time I got too late on a tropical intercept was in Miami a couple years ago with weak TS Bonnie. I had 3 hours to get to the storm center, but failed, because the traffic problems caused every road to be jammed, and making the 20 mile trip take 2+ hours. Josh is not chasing in a metro nightmare anyway. H'ell be fine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Josh has landed and were on generally the same page. Belize radar trends does suggest that further N could become more of an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Punta Allen is definitely not an option. Currently being evacuated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Punta Allen is definitely not an option. Currently being evacuated. He's really got no good coastal options. Punta Allen might be in the north eyewall or maybe a little north of it, but it's being evacuated. Costa Maya will almost certainly be too far south, probably south of the southern eyewall. There are only a couple tiny villages on the coast north of Costa Maya, but even there, they likely won't be anywhere near the right-front quadrant... There are no good coastal towns near where landfall might actually occur (I'd guess somewhere near 19.2N, 87.5W right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 He's really got no good coastal options. Punta Allen might be in the north eyewall or maybe a little north of it, but it's being evacuated. Costa Maya will almost certainly be too far south, probably south of the southern eyewall. There are only a couple tiny villages on the coast north of Costa Maya, but even there, they likely won't be anywhere near the right-front quadrant... There are no good coastal towns near where landfall might actually occur (I'd guess somewhere near 19.2N, 87.5W right now) True but the further N and inland targets are just as good. If it keeps going N enough and the Tulum area even becomes an option. Anywhere inland from Felipe Puerto N to Tulum will be solid with Ernie not losing much of his punch, especially if it were to be strengthening up to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 True but the further N and inland targets are just as good. If it keeps going N enough and the Tulum area even becomes an option. Anywhere inland from Felipe Puerto N to Tulum will be solid with Ernie not losing much of his punch, especially if it were to be strengthening up to landfall. Not sure I think it's going to go that far north to have a sig impact in Tulum, myself. I think we see a bit of a wobble back to the west before landfall. But I certainly could see it within the realm of possibilities. EDIT: I think Felipe Carrillo Puerto is a good base, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Should miss the next forecast point a bit to the north. EDIT: What kind of equipment is Josh hauling for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Eye is becoming easier to track on the Belize radar. Even gives the hint of finally forming an eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Slight depression in the center of the clouds on visible where the new blowup is. Would be awesome if this can pop an eye soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Go get 'em Josh! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Go get 'em Josh! --Turtle I echo this, a props to Ernesto for finally coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hey, guys-- I'm in Cancun, just about to head S! Woo hoo! I've chased on the Yucatan a couple of times, so this is very familiar turf for me and also my right-hand man, Scott (Strat). One of the interesting things about being here on the ground is that it doesn't always match the maps-- one of the idiosyncrasies of chasing on the Yucatan. I'm heading S to Tulum. Once there, I'm going to stop and Scott and I will have a strategy session. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hey, guys-- I'm in Cancun, just about to head S! Woo hoo! I've chased on the Yucatan a couple of times, so this is very familiar turf for me and also my right-hand man, Scott (Strat). One of the interesting things about being here on the ground is that it doesn't always match the maps-- one of the idiosyncrasies of chasing on the Yucatan. I'm heading S to Tulum. Once there, I'm going to stop and Scott and I will have a strategy session. Seems like a perfect plan. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hey, guys-- I'm in Cancun, just about to head S! Woo hoo! I've chased on the Yucatan a couple of times, so this is very familiar turf for me and also my right-hand man, Scott (Strat). One of the interesting things about being here on the ground is that it doesn't always match the maps-- one of the idiosyncrasies of chasing on the Yucatan. I'm heading S to Tulum. Once there, I'm going to stop and Scott and I will have a strategy session. FWIW, I'm still of the opinion that Felipe Carrillo Puerto is a better base than Tulum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 FWIW, I'm still of the opinion that Felipe Carrillo Puerto is a better base than Tulum. Yep, basically one of those two towns will probably be the homebase for riding out the cyclone-- unless it turns more. Once I get down in that region, I'm going to do what I always do-- which is to scout the area carefully by the light of day and get a feel for it. I was especially exhaustive with my pre-hurricane scouting for Jova (on the Pacific side) last year, and the extra effort paid off handsomely. Thanks, Mallow, and everyone else for the well-wishes. This chase was not embarked upon lightly-- I had a lot of trouble deciding whether to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good luck, Josh! Hope you get nailed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Beaut of a tower right in the eyewall. That's a pretty darn tiny core on the Belize radar. At least it will be tight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good day all, Tulum will clearly be a bit far north by the looks of the Belize radar. That eye is about 5 nm wide - Pinhole eye if it were stronger. You will need to be IN the eyewall to see a "hurricane". You have the right idea, Josh ... Head down to Tulum, and decide where to go from there, you should have plenty of time - while still able to have internet (near hotels or roaming on cell data)? Cancun's radar is below, if you need it - I'm sure it may come in handy later (Belize's seems better though). http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cancun/cancun.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Josh picked up the rental car and is on his way to Tulum before checking in quickly and heading towards Felipe Puerto as we initially planned - Unless there are significant changes in the next hour. He is stoked that radar is showing an improving signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
99lsfm2 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good luck guys enjoy the ride! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Josh picked up the rental car and is on his way to Tulum before checking in quickly and heading towards Felipe Puerto as we initially planned - Unless there are significant changes in the next hour. He is stoked that radar is showing an improving signature. Awesome. Glad he decided to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Honestly, I hope he gets creamed. This thing is looking excellent with those towers outlining the eye. Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good luck Josh, seems you could very well get an intensifying storm making landfall. Those always have surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Awesome. Glad he decided to go. Yeah it was up and down on what to do very early this morning. We kept waiting for overnight imagery and recon to give that 'wow' kinda moment that made the decision easy. For awhile the idea was to wait for the data from the recon flight this morning and if it was good to take a later flight and taking a chance that the arrival wouldn't be diverted. Then of course sat images started teasing. Next thing I know he called and said he was on his way to the airport for the original flight. As it looks now it was a helluva call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 This could turn into a huge success for Josh...if he can get in the small core of this strengthening hurricane and get into some 70-75 kt winds it would be a huge win considering when his flight left we were looking at a 55kt storm with ~18 hours till landfall. Probably not a Jova type win for him but a smaller version of it. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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