HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Yeah, I may bust-- and I may bust badly-- and at this stage in my chasing career, it is probably insane to want to chase a Cat 1 landfalling at night. But... Bottom line is I'm more scared of missing a hot NW-Caribbean microcane than I am relaxing in Playa Del Carmen for a few days because the hurricane didn't come to the party. Like, if I bust, no biggie. I like the Yucatan. It is my meteorological home-- my most cherished chase turf in the basin. More later! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Nothing can be worse than Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 About 988 on the first pass. Winds however were very meh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 800 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012 ...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO HEADS TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 84.4W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It'd have to turn back completely 270º Westbound now not to make the BZ/MX border. Glass half full optimism, 45 knots winds in SE aren't super great, but aren't shabby, and with pressure dropping and convection over the top, the winds can't be too far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Go with guns blazing. Good luck and maybe this thing will turn out better once you get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good luck Josh, I couldn't follow Ernesto thoroughly, but maybe that was a good thing. Majahual looks like the place to be...maybe a tad north...(actually, it will be north of that, somewhere near Pulticub/Sian Ka´an) I think Ernie can bottom in the lower 970s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Playa Del Carmen is an awesome area to be at anyway. So worst case, a great vacation. Have been to that region 5 times in the past 3 years for vacation. Easy terrain to chase. Modern roads, modern technology (wifi, cells, etc.) and very nice people with low crime. State of the art buildings and hotels make it a very safe area to ride out even a category 4 hurricance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) Good Luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Go josh Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good luck Josh! Always a good thing to have the Belize radar on your side when chasing near the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good luck Josh! I hope to see some video - whether it's a tight core pushing ashore or you sipping down a margarita Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Nice. I'm hoping you get the hardcore extreme clobbering you desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Yeah, I may bust-- and I may bust badly-- and at this stage in my chasing career, it is probably insane to want to chase a Cat 1 landfalling at night. But... Bottom line is I'm more scared of missing a hot NW-Caribbean microcane than I am relaxing in Playa Del Carmen for a few days because the hurricane didn't come to the party. Like, if I bust, no biggie. I like the Yucatan. It is my meteorological home-- my most cherished chase turf in the basin. More later! Best of luck Josh, this one is really getting that about to RI look. When you getting to the Yucatan? I'm sure this is gonna be a little tight on time huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Best of luck Josh, this one is really getting that about to RI look. When you getting to the Yucatan? I'm sure this is gonna be a little tight on time huh? i-Cyclone FB page had him waiting on his connection at IAH 30 minutes ago. My figuring, (United flight tracker) he arrives at 2:01pm ETA- if he sits on the right side of the plane, perhaps he can see my office. Next to the Williams Tower, which is hard to miss. Looks CAVU right now. I'm so excited, this is the closest I'll ever get to an i-Cyclone chase without having to board my windows. ETA Part Deux: With any luck at all, that will be about 2025 and i-Cyclone may have retired form chasing by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 lol, I was def not expecting this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 We're about to take off-- will be at CUN in two hours. See y'all soon. Thanks for the well-wishes, you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 We're about to take off-- will be at CUN in two hours. See y'all soon. Thanks for the well-wishes, you guys. Damn ... You pulled the trigger. You got more ballz than me! You should get a minimal hurricane at least - Sux at night - But if I were you I'd head down to Costa Maya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Latest pass showing the winds finally responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Fixes continue to be north of the OFC track. Looks like landfall will likely be within the Quintana Roo province. The question is what section...Carrillo Puerto or the Othon P. Blanco section? For now I'd favor the somewhere near/north of where they border each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 984 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml URNT12 KNHC 071716 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012 A. 07/17:01:10Z B. 18 deg 27 min N 085 deg 24 min W C. 850 mb 1288 m D. 71 kt E. 047 deg 12 nm F. 130 deg 83 kt G. 047 deg 12 nm H. 984 mb I. 17 C / 1523 m J. 22 C / 1521 m K. 19 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 08 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 24 MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 16:57:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Pretty big fan of impressive FL winds showing up in just one pass. The 3mb drop in one pass also helps. Since we seem to be entering a rather decent period of strengthening, wobbles have to the potential to mess with our eyes and brains in the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Damn ... You pulled the trigger. You got more ballz than me! You should get a minimal hurricane at least - Sux at night - But if I were you I'd head down to Costa Maya. Agreed. It may even end up a bit north of that, but there are no real coastal towns (maybe villages at best, like El Placer) north of Costa Maya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Updated forecast track... Right near X Hazil Sur which is S of Felipe Puerto. Access to the coast is limited. Road running N from Mahahual to Tampalan probably won't be an option by the time you get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Good day all, Hey, Josh ... You might want to consider the coastal road of 109 south of Tulum village. Thats pretty much the ONLY road that will get you closest to the core of Ernesto. Costa Maya seems to be a bit far south now, and that would put you in much weaker offshore flow. The eye will appear to be right over the ininhabited penninsula of Santa Rosa. Punta Allen is the southern most option of 109. I hate this storm because it's at night though. The village of Punta Allen appears to be the best choice, if you can get in there - This will be a very stern chase (get in there quick) for you. The storm surge should be quite high in Punta Allen, but not too bad given the small size of the storm. The roads do not appear to be well paved, at least that's how they look on Google earth. The road (109) leading to the village also appears to be tree-lined. The FAR safer approach will be Felipe Carillo Puerto along 307 (15-20 miles inland, and it's a town, so there will be some structures / limited lightning before power goes out (and not as isolated as the coastal 109 road). This is roughly 100 miles (2 hours) south of Cancun. You'll really need to hurry. Just my 2 cents worth. I really wish this was at daytime (as the 50/50 rule Murphey's Law states - 99% of these things come at night - boooooo)! Good luck and we look forward to seeing your footage / stories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Updated forecast track... Right near X Hazil Sur which is S of Felipe Puerto. Access to the coast is limited. Road running N from Mahahual to Tampalan probably won't be an option by the time you get there. what do you think about punta allen? too far N? too isolated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 what do you think about punta allen? too far N? too isolated? The road out to Punta Allen is horrible, also it is very low elevation. Not a good spot for chasing IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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