Voyager Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Got split again in Wayne. It seems like the only time we get hit is with a solid West to east moving squall line. I don't think we have had a pop up storm all year. Looks like almost 1.5" so far from Caln to Uwchlan. You're having about as good of luck as I am with storms this year. Everything either splits or dies out over eastern Schuylkill County or forms to the south and east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 You're having about as good of luck as I am with storms this year. Everything either splits or dies out over eastern Schuylkill County or forms to the south and east of us. Yeah, I'm hoping our luck turns around soon. I'm not sure if it has something to do with the valley or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Got split again in Wayne. It seems like the only time we get hit is with a solid West to east moving squall line. I don't think we have had a pop up storm all year. Looks like almost 1.5" so far from Caln to Uwchlan. negative, back in may had 3-4 inches over the area. I remember jrodd posted a video of the wawa flooded. Welcome to summer t storms, some get hit some dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Yeah, I'm hoping our luck turns around soon. I'm not sure if it has something to do with the valley or what. what valley? Wayne has a pretty high elevation for these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 what valley? Wayne has a pretty high elevation for these areas. I'm down in Chesterbrook which is around 150-200 ft with hills to the north and south. It's probably just bad luck recently though, I'm sure we'll get one to pop over us sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 I could not go out filming due to a medical emergency with my father in law falling and hitting his head in the bathroom on the tile floor after he had surgery yesterday so storms are the last thing to deal with for now. Glad it rained though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 0.86" total for the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Chester county getting hit pretty good. Lots of reports of trees down with the storm over Uwchlan. Where did you get this info from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Where did you get this info from? Listing to the police radio. There were several trees down from Caln to the Lionville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Listing to the police radio. There were several trees down from Caln to the Lionville area. Thanks for the follow-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 I'm down in Chesterbrook which is around 150-200 ft with hills to the north and south. It's probably just bad luck recently though, I'm sure we'll get one to pop over us sometime soon. ah ok, yea they are at a lower elev. I was gonna say cause most of wayne is above 400 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Day 3 See Text with 5% so far for tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 12, 2012 Author Share Posted August 12, 2012 1.50" last night...rode the rain train for two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Just some pix from yesterday down in Avalon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 Day 3 See Text with 5% so far for tuesday. At this point, just wake me when I'm under a SVR...It hasn't been working out too well so far for us this year, but at least we've gotten some decent rainfall recently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted August 12, 2012 Share Posted August 12, 2012 ah ok, yea they are at a lower elev. I was gonna say cause most of wayne is above 400 ft Yeah, It doesn't seem like much but it's like a different world up there during snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 Right now Tuesday looks better than last Friday did imo. I have to admit, I'm having trouble pinpointing the source of lift, since there isn't an obvious thermal gradient or surface pressure trough, but at 850 mb things become clearer. We actually have some better shear to work with (directional anyway, nasomuch speed). The 0z NAM is throwing out a north-south axis of >150 0-3 km SRH just west of the immediate Philly region, thanks to a sligh backing of the surface flow. Sure, this hodo isn't April on the Plains, but for Philly in August it holds the potential for at least some supercellular organization. (Slower 700 mb flow than 850 mb flow would suggest a lot of splitting, but we'll take what we can get I suppose.) The column is not completely saturated this go around, although it is still quite moist, which in turn puts a damper (if you'll pardon the pun) on mid-level lapse rates and associated CAPE values. That said, I like Tuesday better than I ever liked last Friday, and I wouldn't be surprised if we get slighted at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 we're under a 15% for tomorrow. NAM/EC all suggest the "best" potential for thunderstorms and for heavier rain is to the north/west of the city. EC says up to 2" along/east of the susquehanna river. NAM says 2-4" of localized heavy rain possible east of Harrisburg. 700mb flow is 20 kts in Central PA, 15 kts locally. 500 ain't much faster...we could see any development move very slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 we're under a 15% for tomorrow. NAM/EC all suggest the "best" potential for thunderstorms and for heavier rain is to the north/west of the city. EC says up to 2" along/east of the susquehanna river. NAM says 2-4" of localized heavy rain possible east of Harrisburg. 700mb flow is 20 kts in Central PA, 15 kts locally. 500 ain't much faster...we could see any development move very slowly. Well, it has found a way to rain with almost any possible threat atleast up our way the past month. Closing in on 9" of rain since mid-July. I also took a stroll yesterday in Rofo (near my old apartment at Walnut Crossing) and saw several large tree limbs down, I guess from the storms in the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 13, 2012 Author Share Posted August 13, 2012 Well, it has found a way to rain with almost any possible threat atleast up our way the past month. Closing in on 9" of rain since mid-July. I also took a stroll yesterday in Rofo (near my old apartment at Walnut Crossing) and saw several large tree limbs down, I guess from the storms in the past week. I think those were from Thursday's storms...there were a few downed trees in that corridor from 422 up to Ridge Pike from Sanatoga down to 113. PTW gusted to 52...I know my office got hammered from that storm. We walked along the Schuylkill down from 113 to Lock 60 on Saturday and the river was higher (not super high, but it was up a bit). Probably will get another bump with tomorrow's fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 we're under a 15% for tomorrow. NAM/EC all suggest the "best" potential for thunderstorms and for heavier rain is to the north/west of the city. EC says up to 2" along/east of the susquehanna river. NAM says 2-4" of localized heavy rain possible east of Harrisburg. 700mb flow is 20 kts in Central PA, 15 kts locally. 500 ain't much faster...we could see any development move very slowly. Agree on the slow movement in fact would not be surprised to see flash flooding in the Harrisburg area If we are lucky maybe we can get in on some of the banding later in the night tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 I think those were from Thursday's storms...there were a few downed trees in that corridor from 422 up to Ridge Pike from Sanatoga down to 113. PTW gusted to 52...I know my office got hammered from that storm. We walked along the Schuylkill down from 113 to Lock 60 on Saturday and the river was higher (not super high, but it was up a bit). Probably will get another bump with tomorrow's fun. Damn, 52 mph at PTW? Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Updated day 1 outlook. Probs are 15% wind, 2-5% tornado.. Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Lancaster, Wilmington, Millville, Vineland and the whole state of Delaware are in a 5% TOR for tomorrow. Up close and personal: http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/maps/ ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... WHILE ONGOING CLOUD COVER -- AND PERHAPS EARLY-PERIOD PRECIPITATION -- SHOULD HINDER HEATING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT...SOME AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS -- AIDED BY A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE THE SURFACE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...THE NAM -- AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 4 KM WRF AND THE GFS -- SUGGEST A WEAK LOW INVOF THE NRN VA/MD AREA. THIS LOW -- AND THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST N OF IT -- COULD FOCUS AN AREA OF STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN MODERATE AT BEST...THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD YIELD A SMALL ZONE OF ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...ALONG WITH BROADER THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE A LESSER THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL FOCUS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY/SLIGHT RISK THREAT ACROSS ERN PA AND INTO THE MD/NRN VA/DE VICINITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. Very interesting discussion. Delaware is so easily chase-able that I'm temped to set up down there tomorrow. (I would need greater than expected surface heating for me to actually pull the trigger though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Meanwhile, the SPC WRF says we'll be dealing with a surprise line of storms by 12z already (it has what's out on the spine of the mountains now intensifying overnight). This scenario is not supported by the HRRR (which has a more broad, east-west oriented area of lighter rain). The NMM and ARW both have this as well, although both have the feature really losing steam as it gets east of the Susquehanna River or thereabouts. The NSSL WRF is essentially the same as the SPC WRF. Of all the hi-res-es, the ARW is (surprisingly, imo) the only one that develops anything north of the Mason-Dixon Line this evening. Previous SPC discussions mentioned lack of convergence along the front as a limiting factor, and combined with meager instability as a result of morning cloud/shower debris, it seems like the hi-res-es are picking up on this as the cause for a general bust for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Lancaster, Wilmington, Millville, Vineland and the whole state of Delaware are in a 5% TOR for tomorrow. Up close and personal: http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/maps/ Very interesting discussion. Delaware is so easily chase-able that I'm temped to set up down there tomorrow. (I would need greater than expected surface heating for me to actually pull the trigger though.) I was thinking the same. However, gonna see if anything discrete can pop, gonna be the best chance. Chances are I prob won't go. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Lancaster, Wilmington, Millville, Vineland and the whole state of Delaware are in a 5% TOR for tomorrow. Up close and personal: http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/maps/ Very interesting discussion. Delaware is so easily chase-able that I'm temped to set up down there tomorrow. (I would need greater than expected surface heating for me to actually pull the trigger though.) Of course, has to be on my drill night at the FD. I may just have to miss it, if things get really rocking and rolling, and that 5% in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 Meanwhile, the SPC WRF says we'll be dealing with a surprise line of storms by 12z already (it has what's out on the spine of the mountains now intensifying overnight). That was starting to show on the 6z NAM yesterday...and reality is it's there this AM across Central PA (most of it probably goes north of the city but some may graze through Philly proper later on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 14, 2012 Author Share Posted August 14, 2012 Hi res NAM (6z) for today...*most* of this is west and northwest of the city. 0z fires em up closer to home. Either way, looks to be more of a threat north/west of Philly from the NAM's perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Having some light to moderate rain with thunder at the present time. The current radar presentation over central and eastern PA looks very similar to the image you posted. Meanwhile, the SPC WRF says we'll be dealing with a surprise line of storms by 12z already (it has what's out on the spine of the mountains now intensifying overnight). This scenario is not supported by the HRRR (which has a more broad, east-west oriented area of lighter rain). The NMM and ARW both have this as well, although both have the feature really losing steam as it gets east of the Susquehanna River or thereabouts. The NSSL WRF is essentially the same as the SPC WRF. Of all the hi-res-es, the ARW is (surprisingly, imo) the only one that develops anything north of the Mason-Dixon Line this evening. Previous SPC discussions mentioned lack of convergence along the front as a limiting factor, and combined with meager instability as a result of morning cloud/shower debris, it seems like the hi-res-es are picking up on this as the cause for a general bust for this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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