Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Delaware Valley Severe/Strong/Lightning Threat Thread


phlwx

Recommended Posts

it would be interesting to note when everything moved out. I could see if we had rain till like 9 then had several hours for the atmosphere to recharge. But most of the areas around here didnt stopp raining till after 113o or 12. Also, we really arent getting full bore sunshine it more or less just broken clouds with some peaks.

It has been mostly sunny since about 12 to 12:30 where i was in ardmore and here its still sunny. We still i guess have a shot small at that but i'll take what i can.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 416
  • Created
  • Last Reply

It has been mostly sunny since about 12 to 12:30 where i was in ardmore and here its still sunny. We still i guess have a shot small at that but i'll take what i can.

the sun is out better now, but around 12 is was not full sunshine, we had breaks in the clouds which allowed the sun to come out. You can see from the vis satellite loop their have been a lot of clouds around.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well round 2 was an epic failure and yawn. Thankfully we got heavy rains this morning.

yeah, tombo called bs on it earlier this afternoon and was absolutely correct...wound up with 0.83 here. seemed like it would be more given how hard it poured for a time...looking forward to a stretch of sub-90 highs, at least for a little while...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah, tombo called bs on it earlier this afternoon and was absolutely correct...wound up with 0.83 here. seemed like it would be more given how hard it poured for a time...looking forward to a stretch of sub-90 highs, at least for a little while...

You guys are acting like we're going to see clear skies from here on out. Granted I highly doubt we see severe, but, there's chances of garden variety stuff through tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You guys are acting like we're going to see clear skies from here on out. Granted I highly doubt we see severe, but, there's chances of garden variety stuff through tomorrow.

You're right, wouldn't rule out storms overnight or tomorrow morning. I was more comparing it to the way spc framed their discussion this morning of this being a two part event for today. I also got caught up I thinking that all the afternoon sun here was going to fuel something decent in the late afternoon or evening, but nothing wound up firing...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks Like 2 distinct wild cards setting up for early am and tomorrow. First of all would be it appears the front is now slow down if not stalling as convection to the southwest is riding northeast along with moisture increasing at different levels of the atmosphere. also it is starting to spread more north northeast towards the area. Could pose a threat in the am as a disturbance is developing along the coast spreading northward. That we will just have to wait and see what happens.

The second wild card comes tomorrow afternoon as the front may still be in the area or just west of the city due to the slow to stalled movement models have been hinting at yet another disturbance this time a bit stronger riding up the coast with more convective activity moving into the area.

00z High restitution Nam took this to the next level and has strong training producing 1-3 inches of rain in localized areas.

Here is the H5 of the High resloution Nam for tomorrow afternoon which clearly shows energy riding along the front which would be the trigger for training storms most likely non severe.

nam-hires_namer_024_500_vort_ht.gif

Now here is sim radar for tomorrow evening showing the strong training with this disturbance/ energy.

nam-hires_namer_024_sim_reflectivity.gif

nam-hires_namer_027_sim_reflectivity.gif

Not 100% sold just yet but it will defiantly be worth watching as this front is going to be slow to clear. A lot of times in august we see wildcard bands with slow moving fronts like this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

looks like showers for eastern jersey this morning, but 6z hr nam keeps things interesting for this afternoon/evening. Doesn't look as intense as it did at 0z, but still there...

see text from around 1am...

...MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND AREA...

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD

FRONT SAT AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD

ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR

IS ONCE AGAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS FROM THE

MID-ATLANTIC NWD...BUT POOR LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS

WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF

THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STG WIND

GUSTS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Flash flood warning out now until 7PM. With high tide within the next hour I am expecting quite a bit of street flooding here. I hope those wioth cars in flood prone areas move them now. Gonna be a lot of insurance adjusters out on the island tomorrow :(

Multiple reports of flash flooding from Cape May up to AC, with what looks to be a lot more rain coming from the south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was some discussion over in our sub forum about this. Apparently a lot of the big outbreaks have had heavy rainfall in the morning. Not saying this will happen here but it's worth noting. One event I remember is June 2008 for the DC folks like me - we had showers and storms in the morning (even a few rounds maybe) and then a massive derecho type thing in the afternoon).

I was at the ballpark for that one. I made a run for the car which was a big mistake. Scary.

Getting a nice storm here now, absolutely torrential downpours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...