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Delaware Valley Severe/Strong/Lightning Threat Thread


phlwx

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Macungie and eastern Berks County getting pounded . With this event coupled with this afternoons storm and another round heading our way now 2.5 inches or more of rain is possible. in the gauge by morning. gusty winds prevalent throughout the storm event, expect a lot of tree limbs down in the morning

Drought cancel? lol Jk man. You guys out there look to get hit all night too. More down around BWI and LanCo moving NE.

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Macungie and eastern Berks County getting pounded . With this event coupled with this afternoons storm and another round heading our way now 2.5 inches or more of rain is possible. in the gauge by morning. gusty winds prevalent throughout the storm event, expect a lot of tree limbs down in the morning

It's amazing. In my travels, I run 3 round trips from Trexlertown to Hazleton, which is 50 miles each direction. In those travels I saw the distant storms, and the associated lightning with them. Somehow, they all missed the 309/100 corridor, and I was left with intermittant rain showers.

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Doesn't anyone think that the cloud cover in place will limit instability for later today? The rain and storms occurring now i would also think would limit the severe probabilities? I mean while we will have greater shear we are looking at meager CAPE and temperatures held down do to limited sunshine?

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Doesn't anyone think that the cloud cover in place will limit instability for later today? The rain and storms occurring now i would also think would limit the severe probabilities? I mean while we will have greater shear we are looking at meager CAPE and temperatures held down do to limited sunshine?

That's been a recognized problem for a few days already, and once touched on in the new Day 1 from SPC as well.

ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE EVOLVING SVR POTENTIAL IN THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY FRI. NEVERTHELESS...AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG DUE TO THE WEAK LAPSE RATES/ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED HOWEVER...RESULTING IN POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

The only way we could actually get an A+ severe weather day tomorrow would be if we got a decent duration of unexpected sunshine.

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post-105-0-15959600-1344586006_thumb.jpg

FWIW, the hi res NAM at 0z suggests a window of inactivity in the afternoon and early evening. This could provide enough pop to get a line of severe to fire up in WV and SW PA late afternoon. Might not stay severe here given it would getting in after dark but there is a decent break pegged in the NAM for late this afternoon.

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its gonna rain, a lot, thats my forecast

Not that it will be ANYTHING like last September, but that radar shot reminds me of the training storms that pummeled the Susquehanna Valley last year, with the exception that the training heavy band is set up farther east toward the Lehigh Valley.

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MD for our area:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0721 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN MD...ERN PA...NJ...DE...EXTREME ERN

VA...SWRN NEW ENGLAND...SERN NY.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101221Z - 101445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE BAND IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED FROM NERN PA

SWD TO CENTRAL/NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION...AND WILL MOVE INTO

FAVORABLY BUOYANT AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.

BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS AND EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS MAY DEVELOP...IN

TURN OFFERING LOCALLY ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS...AS WELL AS

POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...NET MOTION OF THIS BAND IS ENEWD 15-20 KT...THOUGH

SMALL-SCALE ACCELERATIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS BEING

SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND ENHANCED DEEP SHEAR...AHEAD OF

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD ACROSS WRN PA AND WV. EVEN WITH SUCH

SUPPORT...LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE WEAK...SUCH THAT VERY

MOIST/HIGH-THETAE AIR MASS NOW OVER DELMARVA AND COASTAL MID-ATLC

REGIONS IS NEEDED TO YIELD APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY. FOREGOING AIR MASS

WILL UNDERGO ONLY WEAK/GRADUAL DIABATIC SFC HEATING BECAUSE OF

THICKENING CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...MODIFICATIONS TO AVAILABLE

RAOBS...AS WELL AS MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST SFC TEMPS AND DEW

POINTS EACH IN 70S F ALREADY YIELD LITTLE OR NO MLCINH. MLCAPE

SHOULD INCREASE WITH EWD EXTENT AND WITH TIME...REACHING 1000-2000

J/KG RANGE.

VWP ON EITHER SIDE OF CONVECTION INDICATES 40-45 KT 500-MB FLOW

ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS ACTIVITY...CONTRIBUTING TO SIMILAR

VALUES OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE. THIS REGIME SUGGESTS CONTINUED

DOMINANCE OF QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF OCNL

EMBEDDED INFLECTIONS AND CIRCULATIONS WITH ACCOMPANYING LEWP/BOW

REFLECTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS.

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Raining here in Spring Mount...no lightning or thunder. Skies were ominous around 7:45 to 8:00 AM, but that nasty cell went north of here. After yesterday, I'd be fine with no severe weather for a while. At least I was able to get a new TV last night for my living room, to replace the one that got zapped by yesterday afternoon's storm (in spite of being plugged into a surge protector...I'm theorizing that the lightning surge came in through the cable wire).

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I'm with you and could care less really about severe as long as we get some nice rains

Raining here in Spring Mount...no lightning or thunder. Skies were ominous around 7:45 to 8:00 AM, but that nasty cell went north of here. After yesterday, I'd be fine with no severe weather for a while. At least I was able to get a new TV last night for my living room, to replace the one that got zapped by yesterday afternoon's storm (in spite of being plugged into a surge protector...I'm theorizing that the lightning surge came in through the cable wire).

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