MGorse Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I don't see any big sever threat in the area over the next few days. With pulsers and high PW, we will get flooding rain/lots of lightning/iso downbursts. But other than that, not a big deal. The forecasts put out by the SPC forecaster DIAL are a joke. He is easily the worst forecaster they have. Not surprised to see his forecast changed so much with the newer outlook. A few days ago today looked better regarding strong to severe thunderstorm potential, however things change and the outlook was adjusted accordingly. I could see a storm or two arriving from the west potentially being strong enough to produce a warning. Tomorrow looks to potentially be a mess with a few things possibly occurring, including pockets of downbursts and bowing segments. This will ultimately depend on the amount of instability that develops, but given the forecast soundings and the synoptic setup at this point the SPC outlook looks pretty good (i.e. low end slight risk for mainly damaging winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 A few days ago today looked better regarding strong to severe thunderstorm potential, however things change and the outlook was adjusted accordingly. I could see a storm or two arriving from the west potentially being strong enough to produce a warning. Tomorrow looks to potentially be a mess with a few things possibly occurring, including pockets of downbursts and bowing segments. This will ultimately depend on the amount of instability that develops, but given the forecast soundings and the synoptic setup at this point the SPC outlook looks pretty good (i.e. low end slight risk for mainly damaging winds). Low end is the key to your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I'm just saying the slight risk for our area is not warrented. We had a slight risk the other day and it worked out fine. But I dont see other than this being a big heavy rain threat and iso downbursts a big deal. thats all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I'm just saying the slight risk for our area is not warrented. We had a slight risk the other day and it worked out fine. But I dont see other than this being a big heavy rain threat and iso downbursts a big deal. thats all. Well if there ends up being more sunshine/instability tomorrow, then it could be a bigger deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 Hey, Im entitled to my opinion. I'm going from past experience. After looking at all the parameters, I see no reason why we were in a slight risk. And that was as of last night on the 00z models. Same thing tonight. I don't think it's ideal but there's enough there with CAPE to justify a low end slight...like I said earlier, the threat may end up being more downbursts in a heavy rain type thunderstorm than your typical supercell but 15% still means 85% chance we don't. It's not like there's 30% being painted on the map in a day 3 or anything. Well if there ends up being more sunshine/instability tomorrow, then it could be a bigger deal. Agree completely with this. We could end up with a Sunday repeat if we get enough sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Hey, Im entitled to my opinion. I'm going from past experience. After looking at all the parameters, I see no reason why we were in a slight risk. And that was as of last night on the 00z models. Same thing tonight. I didn't have a problem as much with you questioning the forecast, as I did with you completely calling DIAL a horrible forecaster, and the worst SPC has while doing it. Along with the fact it's still 1 1/2 days out and you're trashing him. You could end up looking pretty stupid in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 So this is where the big boy conversations are? In the overnights?... I'm with Mike on this, with some event clearing and an increase in cape, could see a greater chance of some downbursts. Still not convinced of a widespread severe* event anywhere without decent shear and mid level drying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 And yet there is one entity out there (I won't name them) that is honking big time for Friday. The caveat to his (their) "outlook" is how much sun we see, but they are the only ones who seem to be going all out for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 And yet there is one entity out there (I won't name them) that is honking big time for Friday. The caveat to his (their) "outlook" is how much sun we see, but they are the only ones who seem to be going all out for this event. Good man Voyager- do not want to tarnish their reputation with some of the comments on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 You know what we need the rain I'll take it any way we get it. Plus I don't see the threat as something great, it might be the case of good or bad timing. As long as we don't torch anymore I am cool. Plus we are getting closer to winter day by day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 Updated 12z for *today*...Philly not in but Lehigh Valley is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Good man Voyager- do not want to tarnish their reputation with some of the comments on this board Yeah, I don't either, as I like them. It'll be interesting to see who wins out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 And yet there is one entity out there (I won't name them) that is honking big time for Friday. The caveat to his (their) "outlook" is how much sun we see, but they are the only ones who seem to be going all out for this event. you mean the one that has the bullseye for a "dangerous severe weather event" and wrote a mesoscale discussion for it? Yeah, I don't either, as I like them. It'll be interesting to see who wins out on this one. Said person *could* be right but it's assuming we have a repeat of Sunday around here where the sun holds out much of the day and we get one big line of thunder to fire in Central PA. That would be how his scenario would play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 you mean the one that has the bullseye for a "dangerous severe weather event" and wrote a mesoscale discussion for it? Said person *could* be right but it's assuming we have a repeat of Sunday around here where the sun holds out much of the day and we get one big line of thunder to fire in Central PA. That would be how his scenario would play out. Yes, and I do believe that's what he is basing his outlook on. Time will tell what eventually develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Can someone pm me who you're referring to if we're not mentioning names? It's probably not worth it, but now I'm curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 Yes, and I do believe that's what he is basing his outlook on. Time will tell what eventually develops. Am not a fan of creating "products" that mimic official nws/spc/HPC/NHC outlooks in titling and appearance... but I don't dispute what he wrote with the exception that it is very touch and go...IF there is more sun on Friday, he ends up closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Whoever you're all talking about must be like the Lord Voldemort of severe weather. He who shall not be mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 things are firing up here thunder in the distance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Why are we dancing around who issued this forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 The little storm that popped up over Allentown means business. Very heavy rain, loud thunder, and surprisingly strong winds (I'd estimate 45 mph gusts at most). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Why are we dancing around who issued this forecast? Because of how harsh people can be at times on this forum. If he/they want to come on here and post or share, that's fine. I am not, and I hope others feel the same way. I posted what I posted for discussion puropses since many don't see this as a major threat, and this guy does. Who he/they are is irrelevent. Someone will be right and someone will be wrong. I suppose it may have been best not to post it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Because of how harsh people can be at times on this forum. If he/they want to come on here and post or share, that's fine. I am not, and I hope others feel the same way. I posted what I posted for discussion puropses since many don't see this as a major threat, and this guy does. Who he/they are is irrelevent. Someone will be right and someone will be wrong. I suppose it may have been best not to post it at all. Yeah I don't know why we're dancing around this issue. If you are just repeating what he said, then there should be no reason to hide his identity. If you are bashing them, then I can understand why you would hide their identity. But if you are just sharing thoughts, unless they are copyrighted, no reason not to reveal who it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 great view of a little storm grazing 3/4 a mile north of me from farmfield near house trailing storm looks a little bigger that one should hit since the 20th or so of july the climates becoming more rainforest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 The little storm that popped up over Allentown means business. Very heavy rain, loud thunder, and surprisingly strong winds (I'd estimate 45 mph gusts at most). Just got a good view of the storm. The lightning is crazy. CTGs every few seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Just got a good view of the storm. The lightning is crazy. CTGs every few seconds. I wish I could have that. I get the every once a while type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Storms today starting to get a tad more interesting a good bit of activity going already. Looks like isolated severe will be the key for today and tonight with flash flooding and Lightning being the biggest threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I wish I could have that. I get the every once a while type. It's official, you are the Ji of the Philly region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Just got a good view of the storm. The lightning is crazy. CTGs every few seconds. This storm has been hammering the Easton area for about 25 minutes now with continuous CTG lightning. Very impressive lightning display with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 great view of a little storm grazing 3/4 a mile north of me from farmfield near house i know the one. i pulled onto that short gravel drive a few times and parked for pic's. nice distance viewing location towards abe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 It's official, you are the Ji of the Philly region... Nah not even close. Grother takes that since Colin is banned and can't keep his drought and flooding thing going unless Grother is Colin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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