RobbTC Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 New Meso MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0857 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...MD...NRN DE...ERN PA INTO SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 150157Z - 150400Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND REPORT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH. DISCUSSION...IR AND RADAR BOTH SHOW STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES ALOFT...WHICH IS HELPING STORMS TO GROW TALL...SOME WITH HAIL. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE NOT STRONG...BUT VEER WITH HEIGHT AND ARE FAVORING SLOW MOVING CELLS WITH ROTATION AT TIMES. THE MAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WILL BE FROM CNTRL PA SEWD INTO NERN MD...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST. THE AIR MASS OVER NERN PA...AND ACROSS ERN NY IS MUCH COOLER AND STABLE...AND SEVERE STORMS SHOULD NOT PERSIST INTO THOSE AREAS. WHILE HIGH RH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS/RH ARE FAVORABLE FOR LOW CLOUD BASES AND FAVOR LOW LEVEL VERTICAL ACCELERATION...AREA WIND PROFILES DO NOT SUGGEST ANY APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 08/15/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Just starting to rain again here in NW Chesco - 0.70" in the bucket earlier with 0.66" in the davis vp2. Only 1.61" so far this month and still a whopping 8.44" below normal rain to date in NW Chesco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Near Balt MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Near Balt MD Scud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 There was a waterspout in Great Bay, NJ this afternoon at 4:40 PM: http://www.pressofat...19bb2963f4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Lightning popping real loud tonight With the cool air the thunder is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Not really expecting a storm, but it sure looks like some heavy rain is about to begin yet again in my neck of the woods. Edit: Pretty good rolling thunder outside within seconds of posting the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 The storms are 10+ miles away from me but there's loud rolling thunder and bright lightning. It's also raining lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Scud. What makes you so sure? There was a TOR out at the time, the storm showed signs of rotation, and it was in a favorable environment for brief spin-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 15, 2012 Author Share Posted August 15, 2012 15% for wind/hail from NYC down to South Carolina and east to the coast for today. Probably more likely storms fire east of 95 than west but even west has a shot at some development this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Day Three discussion from SPC for Friday. Looks like another day of POSSIBLE severe in some locations. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html ...NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND APPALACHIANS VICINITY... AS HEIGHT FALLS GRADUALLY OCCUR AND THE COLD FRONT SPREADS EASTWARD...THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ANY EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE REMNANTS SHOULD AT LEAST BECOME MODESTLY UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MLCAPE VALUES MAY NOT EXCEED 750-1000 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. EVEN AS THE STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR LAGS THE COLD FRONT /TO THE WEST/...SOME SEMI-SUSTAINED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 So, these are around the same time . ( I took a snap shot from video). At 1st you can always say scud. However, when I look at it, I see a distinct curvature with a funnel/taper shape in this "cloud of interest". If I were a betting man, I'd say this was a funnel. Between radar/velocity scans, and how smooth the cloud is, and unique and smooth t looks compared to the rest of the lowered clouds in the snap shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Near Balt MD drink for f bomb dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 How about this surprise...another storm near Ocean Acres & Barneget,... Hahaha. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Storm in York county moving SE is showing sings of being super cellular in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Yep, that's a nice looking cell southwest of Red Lion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 How about this surprise...another storm near Ocean Acres & Barneget,... Hahaha. Unbelievable. Yeah, on convective days we should just go with 80 or higher POPs in that area. Seems to be the convective hot spot this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Looks like things are starting to fire back to the west. A bit of a line forming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Cell in York County dying quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Wow! At te planet fitness in Clifton, and walking in and CRAKLE AND BOOM!!! Dark clouds to my easy, sunny skies over head. This bolt of lighting hit the cell tower no more than 20 ft... of us Scared the **** outta us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Wow! At te planet fitness in Clifton, and walking in and CRAKLE AND BOOM!!! Dark clouds to my easy, sunny skies over head. This bolt of lighting hit the cell tower no more than 20 ft... of us Scared the **** outta us! Missed that strike by 45 seconds was on Baltimore pike near kohls and saw it in the distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Gotta love watching the radar up around NYC... they keep getting clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 This is how close we were to the tower that was struck by lightning. We parked (we as in my firefighter crews) to walk I to the gym. Scared the living daylights outta us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Monster tower going up just NW of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 .48 on the day from the storms in d hizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 .48 on the day from the storms in d hizzle. A big 0.0 at the house so far today, lol. Those of you that listen to Howard Stern will understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 A big 0.0 at the house so far today, lol. Those of you that listen to Howard Stern will understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 A small, but decent storm is approaching North Vineland just SE of Newfield. It grew quickly after the outflow/sea breeze collision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 ryan is in that storm...he said he has up to nickel size hail and some trees down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 15, 2012 Share Posted August 15, 2012 Getting raked in Vineland, trees down, structural collapse where I just was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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