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Delaware Valley Severe/Strong/Lightning Threat Thread


phlwx

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On my iPhone here at work limited time to view it how does it look for the rest of the day and tonight?

The only piece of the 12z suite out yet is the NAM, whose sim radar shows a blob of mainly showers with maybe embedded thunderstorms moving through around 3z.

Best tornado potential (per the NAM, anyway) in north-central MD, where 0-3 km HLCYs are 150-200 over a small area.

Really comes down to how much clearing we see behind this batch, though.

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The only piece of the 12z suite out yet is the NAM, whose sim radar shows a blob of mainly showers with maybe embedded thunderstorms moving through around 3z.

Best tornado potential (per the NAM, anyway) in north-central MD, where 0-3 km HLCYs are 150-200 over a small area.

Really comes down to how much clearing we see behind this batch, though.

Thank you might be good enough timing for me to complete work and head out.

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The only piece of the 12z suite out yet is the NAM, whose sim radar shows a blob of mainly showers with maybe embedded thunderstorms moving through around 3z.

Best tornado potential (per the NAM, anyway) in north-central MD, where 0-3 km HLCYs are 150-200 over a small area.

Really comes down to how much clearing we see behind this batch, though.

Road trip to Columbia, Maryland? My friend who lives there always seem to be cleaning up from storm damage.

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From the 1630z SPC outlook.

STORM SCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE 00Z

WRF-ARW-NSSL AND THE NAM-KF CONTROL MEMBER OF THE 09Z SREF DO

SUGGEST LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES RESULTING IN ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS

SUPPORTIVE OF LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION DURING THE EVENING. THE

CHANCE FOR A TORNADO EXISTS IF DISCRETE CONVECTION CAN EVOLVE IN

THIS FORECAST KINEMATIC REGIME. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM-WRF GUIDANCE

SHOWS MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH LITTLE OR NO TORNADO

POTENTIAL INDICATED. GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE QPF SIGNAL

NEAR A FAVORABLE CYCLOGENESIS REGION IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN A

SMALL RELATIVELY HIGHER 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY TORNADO FORECAST FOR

THE TIME BEING FROM NRN DELMARVA INTO SRN PA/CAPE MAY AREA.

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Got 0.70 of rain this morning here in Ne Philadelphia. Remains to be seen weather or not I will be adding to that seams to be a lot of wild cards floating around 1 would be the storms in jersey are moving no where fast so flash flood threat IMO will continue there for sometime. Then back west of Lancaster already signs of pop ups starting up. As for instability it is very close by and we have penty of moisture to go with it. Going to be an interesting afternoon that is for sure.

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Northern Maryland is clearing out nicely right now. Already > 1000 J/Kg of MLCAPE down there.

A bit of sun is breaking through now up here as well but we still need some work.

I was just gonna say, just west of Balt looks like a solid spot.

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You wanna join or go out on a chase?

I'm alright. Not excited to chase. If I was, I would have left already.

In the meantime, that little cell west of Harrisburg def has some super cellular characteristics. Even a little hook on the back. Encouraging to see.

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