phlwx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 There's also a threat for day 4 but we are under a slight (for now) north/west of 295 in NJ for Thursday/Thursday night. ...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NERN STATES... PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...BUT DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. THOUGH STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL...THE MID-UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS REGION INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Thanks for starting a new thread. Should be interesting late Thursday into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 7, 2012 Author Share Posted August 7, 2012 12z gfs/euro both honk at Friday being rough around the region. Severe and/or heavy rainfall definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 12z gfs/euro both honk at Friday being rough around the region. Severe and/or heavy rainfall definitely possible. 60% chance we'll hear the d-word before Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 60% chance we'll hear the d-word before Friday... Derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 12z gfs/euro both honk at Friday being rough around the region. Severe and/or heavy rainfall definitely possible. Correct me if I'm wrong? (on Fridays potential) I see the heavy rainfall threat..but I'm not seeing the severe threat (just taking a look at the GFS). Not seeing enough mid level dry air to get the convective element going. I'm sure there will be some convection, elevated probably. To me, the column looks pretty saturated? Also, seems like th best shear stays south towards the Delmarva and the immediate south jersey coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Derecho No, dryslot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 No, dryslot! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong? (on Fridays potential) I see the heavy rainfall threat..but I'm not seeing the severe threat (just taking a look at the GFS). Not seeing enough mid level dry air to get the convective element going. I'm sure there will be some convection, elevated probably. To me, the column looks pretty saturated? Also, seems like th best shear stays south towards the Delmarva and the immediate south jersey coast line. I saw this same thing on the GFS when I looked yesterday, which is why SPC's D5 risk surprised me a bit. Maybe there's something we're missing though? The NAM is definitely better wrt column saturation, although as if to be completely opposite, it mixes out the bl. Shear is perhaps a little better than it's been for some other events this summer but we're not talking Midwest in May here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I am more impressed for thursday night severe wx wise then friday while still may be a general slight risk. Looks as if we should see good heating and instability Thursday to support an event Thursday night. As for Friday I think there will be too much convecion on going early on and possibly continuing through out the day.. I also believe there just may simply be too much moisture to support strong updrafts but more in the way of elevated activity. For now does not look like this warrants flash flood watches but that could certainly change as we get closer. Remember some places recently have had a significant amount of rain from storms and now would not take much rain for flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 No, dryslot! No for both of you --- debris clouds only for you deluge for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Hopefully it's not disappointment lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 No for both of you --- debris clouds only for you deluge for me? I am sorry I was wrong on both counts smokeater would agree I meant ---drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong? (on Fridays potential) I see the heavy rainfall threat..but I'm not seeing the severe threat (just taking a look at the GFS). Not seeing enough mid level dry air to get the convective element going. I'm sure there will be some convection, elevated probably. To me, the column looks pretty saturated? Also, seems like th best shear stays south towards the Delmarva and the immediate south jersey coast line. I think there will be enough *there* to get some severe warnings...it could be like Sunday where the initial line goes through early and then we transition into a more heavy rain/thunder threat Friday night. A lot of it comes down to how much sun we get...if showers/storms are around early and often we probably are dealing with random severe warnings from downbursts in heavier thunderstorms. There's enough there though. Thursday has potential to feature severe but I think it's going to be more scattered locally...better chances in Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Just looking at the 6z NAM for Friday while I'm up... The timing of the FROPA sucks (the front is just crossing the OH/PA line at 0z) but there is a pre-frontal blob that looks interesting. The NAM has it crossing the PHL area between 0-3z, which would probably still be early enough for decent activity. Meager mid-level lapse rates and water loading due to a very moist column are negating factors, no doubt, but I am somewhat impressed by the wind profiles, especially over NE PA. I would think that that kind of turning in the lowest 2 km or so would support embedded supercell structures and perhaps a few brief spin-ups, but again, that's more likely across the northern tier of PA (closer to the surface warm front) than down here as of now, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 60% chance we'll hear the d-word before Friday... The only good thing to come out of all this is that we no longer have to explain the word when we use it amongst our friends who aren't very weatherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 The only good thing to come out of all this is that we no longer have to explain the word when we use it amongst our friends who aren't very weatherwise. Except those that ask, "is this one of those drrr-echoes?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Except those that ask, "is this one of those drrr-echoes?" Derechio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Quite the change with the new Day 2 6z 1730z :axehead: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Derechio Not sure if it came across right, but I was referencing that I've heard many people mispronounce "that" word... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Quite the change with the new Day 2 6z 1730z :axehead: There goes the DERECHO!! Facking kiddin me!! All kidding aside, I'm not surprised about the shift west. Meager lapse rates and shear with high pwats doesn't scream exciting. Won't be surprised to see 1 Or 2 warnings pop with a cell here or there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Not sure if it came across right, but I was referencing that I've heard many people mispronounce "that" word... I know man, I was joking, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 So is the next couple of days setting up to be a heavy rain/ thunderstorm threat rather than a severe weather threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 So is the next couple of days setting up to be a heavy rain/ thunderstorm threat rather than a severe weather threat? pretty much, their should be some svr weather on friday but early in the week it looked more promising. Along with the other stuff people have mentioned i just don't see much shear to have a huge outbreak. The cape and LI still look solid for some svr weather though. But the hvy rains will be the bigger story i think. The pwats will be running close to 2 inches which is loaded with mositure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 wouldn't shock to see more of a downburst within heavier rainfall type severe than supercells. There will be some severe around but unless skies are more sunny than not in the morning hours, it's probably going to be downburst/wet micro severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 0z nam has a line coming through the western counties NEPA to about Lanco and then dying off as they hit I-95 for tomorrow evening. Wouldn't surprise me one bit, as has been the norm for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I don't see any big sever threat in the area over the next few days. With pulsers and high PW, we will get flooding rain/lots of lightning/iso downbursts. But other than that, not a big deal. The forecasts put out by the SPC forecaster DIAL are a joke. He is easily the worst forecaster they have. Not surprised to see his forecast changed so much with the newer outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I don't see any big sever threat in the area over the next few days. With pulsers and high PW, we will get flooding rain/lots of lightning/iso downbursts. But other than that, not a big deal. The forecasts put out by the SPC forecaster DIAL are a joke. He is easily the worst forecaster they have. Not surprised to see his forecast changed so much with the newer outlook. What has changed so much? Probs are still at 15%, and the outlook area is mostly the same. He even mentions modest shear as a possible limiting factor for a more robust severe threat. What should he have done, completely get rid of the risk area? You're acting as if we're under a day 2 High Risk or something, yet it's a low end Slight. And it's not real smart to trash an SPC forecaster, in 2 different subforums, a day and a half before the event. And I would appreciate it if you wouldn't muck the thread up with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I don't see any big sever threat in the area over the next few days. With pulsers and high PW, we will get flooding rain/lots of lightning/iso downbursts. But other than that, not a big deal. The forecasts put out by the SPC forecaster DIAL are a joke. He is easily the worst forecaster they have. Not surprised to see his forecast changed so much with the newer outlook. Not to be rude, but he works there for a reason... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Hey, Im entitled to my opinion. I'm going from past experience. After looking at all the parameters, I see no reason why we were in a slight risk. And that was as of last night on the 00z models. Same thing tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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