Jim Martin Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It is looking like large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Well looking at some of the models, a small enhanced risk of tornadoes could exist over W IN, E IL near the low and also in NE OH and W PA along a warm front, and on Friday in E OH and W PA/NY area near a deepening low pressure system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Well looking at some of the models, a small enhanced risk of tornadoes could exist over W IN, E IL near the low and also in NE OH and W PA along a warm front, and on Friday in E OH and W PA/NY area near a deepening low pressure system I would be skeptical of a tornado risk right now, the shear isn't really that spectacular and Friday the instability is lacking at least right now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Well looking at some of the models, a small enhanced risk of tornadoes could exist over W IN, E IL near the low and also in NE OH and W PA along a warm front, and on Friday in E OH and W PA/NY area near a deepening low pressure system Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Doubt it. Well the SPC is biting a little more on Thursday. They now have a 30% risk area. They are even mentioning the potential for a few supercells before MCS development. Could end up being a semi-interesting day! ...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NERN STATES... UPPER 50S-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD CHARACTERIZE MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST...BUT DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL...BUT MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WARM SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. PRIMARY STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR FROM ERN HALF OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SPREAD SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND WRN OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS REGION INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...BUT STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Well looking at some of the models, a small enhanced risk of tornadoes could exist over W IN, E IL near the low and also in NE OH and W PA along a warm front, and on Friday in E OH and W PA/NY area near a deepening low pressure system I would be skeptical of a tornado risk right now, the shear isn't really that spectacular and Friday the instability is lacking at least right now. . Ironically, my local paper (the State Journal-Register) had a feature article pointing out the dearth of tornadoes in central Illinois so far this year due to the drought. Per the article, only 5 tornadoes have been reported in the ILX counties (and 18 in the rest of IL) so far this year. All of the ILX tornadoes have been in east-central IL (Monticello-Champaign-Danville areas) to this point. http://www.sj-r.com/top-stories/x417564796/Dry-weather-has-a-positive-side-fewer-tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 The New day 2 is interesting and the 12z NAM/GFS came in stronger/West with the surface low. A much more pronounced warm front setting up along the IN/MI-OH/MI border on the 12z NAM also, which has been trending in that direction with the last 3 subsequent runs. Certainly something to monitor going forward but I could actually see a decent severe chance for N IN/NW OH and Extreme Southern OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Doubt it. Instead of just telling off some of the newer posters, atleast you can explain your two word reasoning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Part of the day 2 from SPC... ...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VLY SWWD INTO THE OZARKS PLATEAU... MODERATE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU. STRENGTHENING OF WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IN A CYCLONIC BELT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION PROBABLY WILL ALSO OCCUR...BUT THIS COULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS PRECEDING THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...MAY ALSO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. WITH THESE UNCERTAINTIES IN MIND...THE NOSE OF VERY WARM LOW- LEVEL...BUT STILL ELEVATED /AROUND 850 MB/...MIXED LAYER AIR EMERGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS CURRENTLY SEEMS LIKELY TO EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE-DEW POINTS SPREADS ...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY AS WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 30-40 KT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL STORM CLUSTER OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BENEATH NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Well the SPC is biting a little more on Thursday. They now have a 30% risk area. They are even mentioning the potential for a few supercells before MCS development. Could end up being a semi-interesting day! Lack of stronger flow in the low levels and substantial temp/dewpoint depressions (especially earlier in the day) will probably limit the tornado threat substantially. Mid level flow isn't great either since the trough is so strongly positively tilted that it holds much of the mid level energy back within the post frontal regime. As the outlook suggests, could see some decent MCS clusters given the adequately unstable environment, and forcing from the sfc low as it tracks ENE across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 The 18z NAM seems to be painting a bit of a higher threat of tornado activity tomorrow here in western Ohio... not much, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 8, 2012 Author Share Posted August 8, 2012 Findlay Sounding at 8pm tomorrow evening... Defiance sounding at 8pm tomorrow evening... Lima sounding valid at 8pm tomorrow evening. Anyone care to chime in on these soundings...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormDude81 Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 I see a bit of tornado threat from OH to PA along the warm front tomorrow, not a great threat, but there could be a few tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 8, 2012 Share Posted August 8, 2012 Do you guys think this will be a big severe weather risk for the Ohio Valley? Yesterday's models barely showed much in the way of severe weather parameters. Today, the SPC SREF is much more agressive with the chance for severe weather in parts of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Been sort of meh on this setup. Parameters are decent but not overwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 The New day 2 is interesting and the 12z NAM/GFS came in stronger/West with the surface low. A much more pronounced warm front setting up along the IN/MI-OH/MI border on the 12z NAM also, which has been trending in that direction with the last 3 subsequent runs. Certainly something to monitor going forward but I could actually see a decent severe chance for N IN/NW OH and Extreme Southern OH. Problem could be instability though. I'm not completely sold on tomorrow with limited amount of sun we'll have it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 30% wind gone from the new outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 All kinds of cloud debris here in the Dayton area. It makes me wonder how much severe we're going to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Clouds have broken up a bit and getting some sun here finally.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 9, 2012 Author Share Posted August 9, 2012 Supercell getting its act together in central Illinois moving southeast 30mph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 New Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for parts of IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 surprise surprise BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 455 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA... CENTRAL WINNESHIEK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 450 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO NEAR STATE ROAD 9 AND 245TH STREET...OR 6 MILES WEST OF DECORAH...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH. THIS TORNADO WARNING UPGRADES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR FAYETTE AND WINNESHIEK COUNTIES. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CONOVER AROUND 500 PM... CALMAR AND FORT ATKINSON AROUND 505 PM... OSSIAN AROUND 510 PM... FESTINA AROUND 515 PM... ST. LUCAS AROUND 520 PM... ELDORADO AND COUNTY ROADS W 42 AND B 40 AROUND 525 PM... DOUGLAS AROUND 530 PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0511 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 092211Z - 092345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY...AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MIDLEVEL TEMPS NEAR -15 OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE TWIN CITIES SEWD INTO NRN IL...WITH A SUFFICIENTLY WARM AIR MASS TO THE W TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. INCREASING SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IS RESULTING IN LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH COOL AIR ALOFT FAVORING LARGE HAIL. WITH COLD DOWNDRAFTS...SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND WEAK DUE TO LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW. STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD AND MAY AFFECT THE QUAD CITIES AREA IN 2-3 HOURS. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 08/09/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Some decent looking cells in central Illinois and western Indiana right now. Looks like the Bloomington area had some interesting storms, saw a report of a 65mph gust and another with 1.5" hail. Looks like the action will stay well to the south of here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 702 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 730 PM EDT * AT 659 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VEEDERSBURG...OR 15 MILES WEST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... WALLACE... ALAMO... SHADES STATE PARK... WAVELAND... RUSSELLVILLE... NEW MARKET... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Looks like those cells are making their way towards you Mottster. Good luck I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 That tor warned cell is riding the southward moving boundary in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Looks like those cells are making their way towards you Mottster. Good luck I guess. Looks like that one split and is now heading NE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Nice TBSS on the low topped supercell between Saint Anne and Rensselaer, along the IL/IN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Nice TBSS on the low topped supercell between Saint Anne and Rensselaer, along the IL/IN border. That cell is ramping up. Decent couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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