am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 As I explained to Boob, as soon as his post is removed from that thread,, I will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 As I explained to Boob, as soon as his post is removed from that thread,, I will lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I have zero interest in this storm for our area...maybe I will pay attention if we can get remnants to come up the coast as a flooding threat. Yeah it's not like those are thrilling outcomes...even if it were to even make it up this way in some shape or form. Maybe Sultan is hoping for the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Post some analytical evidence to your assertion that it's going to go N of the islands. Not with its current track it won't, Its below the mendoza line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Yeah it's not like those are thrilling outcomes...even if it were to even make it up this way in some shape or form. Maybe Sultan is hoping for the latter. still will be interesting to track as it trashes one of the usual spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Anyone want to tackle this lol Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 500 mb 6-10/8-14 analog roulette: Carol 54 2. Katrina 05 2 Edna 54, Elena 85, Cleo 64 1 each Blend tracks, see what you come up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Anyone want to tackle this lol Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 500 mb 6-10/8-14 analog roulette: Carol 54 2. Katrina 05 2 Edna 54, Elena 85, Cleo 64 1 each Blend tracks, see what you come up with He forgot Hazel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I just looked at carol anomalies for ****s and giggles...don't see that similarities...at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It's kinda sad...it used to be that JB would just hype stuff...but at least he had some meteorological justification...lately it seems that goes so far as to make **** up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 500mb height anomaly composite for hits at T-5 days GEFS mean at T-5 days of the storm reaching the east coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 My honest hope is it becomes another named thunderstorm complex. I hope all majors recurve and we move right into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Oops, posted in the other thread. Oh, well... Something that I find very interesting is the recent DGEX (it's basically a "Frankenmodel" that is initialized off the GFS grid and then processes the old ETA out to la-la land) depictions of a near East Coastal TClogenesis, that then moves toward the SNE coast. Meanwhile, the Roundy Probabilities product is showing a modest positive anomaly in the probability field across the far western Atlantic. There is almost no deterministic value in the DGEX (haha), but, the combination of these tools really points (I think) to a fairly robust numerical instability signal in the general region. The DGEX is probably just developing anything there whether it is real or not, but it all in an odd way is kind of suggestive, too. It would be an interesting retrospective if one of these current CV developers were to find its way up along the EC, to then look back and note that the DGEX was repeating a close to home genesis across multiple runs (anyway). More profound yet would be if a TC wound up intense as it came north, perhaps "tapping" into the favorable regime as connoted by these tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Oops, posted in the other thread. Oh, well... Something that I find very interesting is the recent DGEX (it's basically a "Frankenmodel" that is initialized off the GFS grid and then processes the old ETA out to la-la land) depictions of a near East Coastal TClogenesis, that then moves toward the SNE coast. Meanwhile, the Roundy Probabilities product is showing a modest positive anomaly in the probability field across the far western Atlantic. There is almost no deterministic value in the DGEX (haha), but, the combination of these tools really points (I think) to a fairly robust numerical instability signal in the general region. The DGEX is probably just developing anything there whether it is real or not, but it all in an odd way is kind of suggestive, too. It would be an interesting retrospective if one of these current CV developers were to find its way up along the EC, to then look back and note that the DGEX was repeating a close to home genesis across multiple runs (anyway). More profound yet would be if a TC wound up intense as it came north, perhaps "tapping" into the favorable regime as connoted by these tools. I don't think the anomalies are favorable for a SNE/Mid-Atlantic real TC hit at all. I could see remnant flooding after a Florida/North Gulf impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I don't think the anomalies are favorable for a SNE/Mid-Atlantic real TC hit at all. I could see remnant flooding after a Florida/North Gulf impact. Agreed, the pattern does not support an direct NE impact, maybe we can get rain up a front but that’s about it. Models are actually in excellent agreement on the storm moving just south of Hispaniola and possibly crossing Cuba at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I don't think the anomalies are favorable for a SNE/Mid-Atlantic real TC hit at all. I could see remnant flooding after a Florida/North Gulf impact. I don't think he means a hit up here is even remotely likely. I think he is just commenting on how the funky DGEX is showing (I could be wrong of course ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 1938 meet 2012 Don't post anything storm related in the Isaac thread on the main page. If you're not one of the tropical officienado's they delete everything even when it's directly related to the outcome of the storm. Just complete buffoons. I post a totally weather related idea,, and it's deleted simply because I'm not one of the"accepted tropical wx members" ..I could see if it was a wishcast ..then sure you delete it,, but it wasn't. If it misses the Caribbean it means a recurve..so I guess I'm wishing for a recurve lol seriously? it's an outstanding thread, glad they have a scorched earth policy. there is almost 0 wishcasting. i understood the point of your post, but help yourself blizz, you're adding fuel to the snowNH comparisons here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I don't think he means a hit up here is even remotely likely. I think he is just commenting on how the funky DGEX is showing (I could be wrong of course ) we should just talk about CMC while we're at it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I don't think the anomalies are favorable for a SNE/Mid-Atlantic real TC hit at all. I could see remnant flooding after a Florida/North Gulf impact. That wasn't the point. Sorry got cut off there - haha... The point I was making is that with the DGEX spinning up that feature, combined with the probability products slightly positive anomalous along the region, there is some portending perhaps. It would certainly be deemed so in retrospect, should something result... By the way folk, the CMC is offering up a menace for upper Carolinas through the MA http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 That wasn't the point. okay....what was then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 okay....what was then? Read above - my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 That wasn't the point. Sorry got cut off there - haha... The point I was making is that the with the DGEX spinning up that feature, combined with the probability products slightly positive anomalous along the region, there is some portending perhaps. It would certainly be deemed so in retrospect, should something result... By the way folk, the CMC is offering up a menace for upper Carolinas through the MA http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation wait...we aren't even talking about future Isaac, are we? Is that just some random low the dgex is spinning up? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Someone please explain to me why the DGEX is even worth discussing in the context of a tropical system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 wait...we aren't even talking about future Isaac, are we? Is that just some random low the dgex is spinning up? lol he was trying to equate how faux DGEX storms may singal a favorable pattern off the east coast......I see maybe a closed off low off the coast over the weknd....which means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 wait...we aren't even talking about future Isaac, are we? Is that just some random low the dgex is spinning up? lol Yeah, it is... weird! But I think it kind of is interesting that it does that prior to the arrival of would be Isaac - kind of like an echo in the physics or something. That's pretty cool to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Yeah, it is... weird! But I think it kind of is interesting that it does that prior to the arrival of would be Isaac - kind of like an echo in the physics or something. That's pretty cool to me The DGEX has an incredible bias when it comes to spinning up nor'easters along the Northeast US coast...so I'm not sure it means much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Someone please explain to me why the DGEX is even worth discussing in the context of a tropical system? It's not, in any deterministic value - no. That's not the point though. Let's not knee jerk react without reading the deeper message folks - I am not saying the DGEX is a useful tropical tool here - not even close. I was merely taking interest in the fact that it was spinning up [phantom] vortex up just off the EC prior to Isaac arriving, as well as offering some insight as to why it might be doing that. Again, considering the Roundy Probs show some increasing potential in that region going forward - it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The DGEX has an incredible bias when it comes to spinning up nor'easters along the Northeast US coast...so I'm not sure it means much. It probably doesn't - agreed. But if I were going to write a sci fi novel about an EC apocalyptic run in with an uber-cane, I think I might have a chapter devoted to false early leads - that would be a real interesting read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 CMC FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 CMC FTW? This model run is being widely discounted Agreed, the pattern does not support an direct NE impact, maybe we can get rain up a front but that’s about it. Models are actually in excellent agreement on the storm moving just south of Hispaniola and possibly crossing Cuba at some point. I don't think the anomalies are favorable for a SNE/Mid-Atlantic real TC hit at all. I could see remnant flooding after a Florida/North Gulf impact. It might be a SNE threat, of course after landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast and then running Northeastward in land. The threat would be heavy rain and that is about it... None of these EC/SNE pipe dream landfalls that the CMC keep pumping out. The pattern is not favorable for anything like that. :lol: Of course in the banter thread there are 0 posts about NE strike and 10 posts complaining about how people are posting about ne strike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Of course in the banter thread there are 0 posts about NE strike and 10 posts complaining about how people are posting about ne strike lol, I know, I even posted earlier E gulf and rain up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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