Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Don't post anything storm related in the Isaac thread on the main page. If you're not one of the tropical officienado's they delete everything even when it's directly related to the outcome of the storm. yeah I stay away from that thread and definetly don't mention 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 For what it's worth, teleconnections are all completely opposite that of favorable for NE hurricane hits. Southeast coast threat, yes. New England threat, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 For what it's worth, teleconnections are all completely opposite that of favorable for NE hurricane hits. Southeast coast threat, yes. New England threat, no. KFS analog packages suggest 1938. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 All 1938 all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 The staff is not going to allow weenie wish-casting allowed in the tropical threats. Keep it on topic and analytical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 LEK has a pretty good looking track posted. I think Ed L's is a bit too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 yeah I stay away from that thread and definetly don't mention 1938 Just complete buffoons. I post a totally weather related idea,, and it's deleted simply because I'm not one of the"accepted tropical wx members" ..I could see if it was a wishcast ..then sure you delete it,, but it wasn't. If it misses the Caribbean it means a recurve..so I guess I'm wishing for a recurve lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Just complete buffoons. I post a totally weather related idea,, and it's deleted simply because I'm not one of the"accepted tropical wx members" ..I could see if it was a wishcast ..then sure you delete it,, but it wasn't. If it misses the Caribbean it means a recurve..so I guess I'm wishing for a recurve lol Post some analytical evidence to your assertion that it's going to go N of the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Post some analytical evidence to your assertion that it's going to go N of the islands. As soon as your non weather related post in that thread is deleted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 LEK has a pretty good looking track posted. I think Ed L's is a bit too far east I think a combo between both is good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Just complete buffoons. I post a totally weather related idea,, and it's deleted simply because I'm not one of the"accepted tropical wx members" ..I could see if it was a wishcast ..then sure you delete it,, but it wasn't. If it misses the Caribbean it means a recurve..so I guess I'm wishing for a recurve lol Well you don't really know anything about tropical wx so why should you post in that thread?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 As soon as your non weather related post in that thread is deleted. If you seriously think there was nothing wrong with that post, than I can't help you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I think a combo between both is good for now. Yeah...days and days to watch this... I would laugh if KFS was correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Kevin I understand what you mean, but I think since no real guidance suggests missing the Carb....it comes across as a wish cast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Post some analytical evidence to your assertion that it's going to go N of the islands. It's a great thread but you do get the impression that you should step on anyones toes. I don't have access to the Euro ensemble members but the GFS members seem to want to go through it as well as the other guidance. Is the Euro alone in going into the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Kevin I understand what you mean, but I think since no real guidance suggests missing the Carb....it comes across as a wish cast. It was an honest attempt to engage in wx related discussion on Isaac. Someone decided they didn't like me or my thoughts and took it upon themselves to call it a wishcast. A wishcast is when you wish for something to hit your area..Not recurve OTS. I now see why so many folks steer clear of that section of the board. Just complete idiocy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 I see this as two things. 1) storms moves north over land after doing whatever in the Gulf and is a gusty south wind and squall deal. Typical stuff. 2) moves just south of us after riding a front and perhaps Is more if a rain deal. Both options easily are NBD....just saying potential outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Still a loooonngg way to go. And with so many possible solutions out there (or 2 main ones), some folks will beat their chests in "triumph" and others will get lambasted for being "wrong" A cane is gonna do what a cane is gonna do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It was an honest attempt to engage in wx related discussion on Isaac. Someone decided they didn't like me or my thoughts and took it upon themselves to call it a wishcast. A wishcast is when you wish for something to hit your area..Not recurve OTS. I now see why so many folks steer clear of that section of the board. Just complete idiocy Were you trying to suggest what Metherb posted or saying it misses all land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Were you trying to suggest what Metherb posted or saying it misses all land? I was trying to suggest it misses the vast majority of the Caribbean and doesn't go into the Gulf and it turns NW/N and probably NE sooner than what is being modelled. And for that my posts gets deleted, but they leave Bob's in there with my name on it, calling it a wishcast,,so when folks read it, they have no idea what he's talking about since the post was deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 It was an honest attempt to engage in wx related discussion on Isaac. Someone decided they didn't like me or my thoughts and took it upon themselves to call it a wishcast. A wishcast is when you wish for something to hit your area..Not recurve OTS. I now see why so many folks steer clear of that section of the board. Just complete idiocy This is exactly what you posted: The sooner we can get this developed into a stronger TS..the farther north we should see it go..If we see it really crank up today, we may be able to rule out some of these tracks that take it into the Caribbean. a) if it cranks up, it's actually going to go farther south because the upper level ridge is oriented differently than the low/mid-level ridge. you are only saying that you want it to miss the Caribbean because you want it to head to the East Coast and no amount of spin will make anyone believe any differently. c) there are NO models that show it missing the Caribbean It's the definition of a wishcast and doesn't belong in the main tropical thread. You are welcome to post such things in the banter thread or in SNE where those types of posts are welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This is exactly what you posted: a) if it cranks up, it's actually going to go farther south because the upper level ridge is oriented differently than the low/mid-level ridge. you are only saying that you want it to miss the Caribbean because you want it to head to the East Coast and no amount of spin will make anyone believe any differently. c) there are NO models that show it missing the Caribbean It's the definition of a wishcast and doesn't belong in the main tropical thread. You are welcome to post such things in the banter thread or in SNE where those types of posts are welcome. Meteorology..not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Meteorology..not modelology Ok, then, please provide me some evidence that every single numerical model is wrong. That onus is on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 JB has a good video this am--his call is for it to go over the extreme SW part of Haiti and then Western Cuba and northwest from there into the Carolinas-says a eastern Gulf path is not out of the question and there's a good loop current there-could be a monster if it gets into the Eastern gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Still a loooonngg way to go. And with so many possible solutions out there (or 2 main ones), some folks will beat their chests in "triumph" and others will get lambasted for being "wrong" A cane is gonna do what a cane is gonna do And what I said isn't the only two outcomes.....just saying if it were to bother us...those are pretty much the two outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok, then, please provide me some evidence that every single numerical model is wrong. That onus is on you. Have you heard of the KFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 new 11 am advisory still has it south of the islands..about to cross central cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 And what I said isn't the only two outcomes.....just saying if it were to bother us...those are pretty much the two outcomes. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Ok, then, please provide me some evidence that every single numerical model is wrong. That onus is on you. As I explained to Boob, as soon as his post is removed from that thread,, I will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 And what I said isn't the only two outcomes.....just saying if it were to bother us...those are pretty much the two outcomes. I have zero interest in this storm for our area...maybe I will pay attention if we can get remnants to come up the coast as a flooding threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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