CapturedNature Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I think forward speed is inhibiting further organization especially. However I thought a wsw motion would commence soon but llc went slightly n of due west now @15.7 n 45.2 w 1245z. Great post blizz let's get this to a cane turnin nw just ne of hispanola then its showtime The 12Z GFS Ensembles seem to be doing that. Still a heck a of lot of ground or should I say ocean to cover before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Notice that even in that pants-tent, optimal weenie-run, they still all recurve before reaching sne....save for one that tries to pull a Bob, which would still blow for 90% of us. I'd rather pull for a se US lf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Seems like Issac to be,convection starting to fire up near the center,with a distinct low level center forming as of this hour. Could we see a TD or even TS Issac by the 5 or 11pm advisory today. winds at 30mph interestingly enough,last year when Irene came through as a strong TS vermont and NH and Maine got alot of wind and flooding rains..and still are recovering after that fiasco,We lost power for three days here in Maine...A whole lot of warm water or should I say SST's are very toasty..so who knows how big Issac could get if the East Coast track verifies re the SST's. Alot of model watching from here on out. I know everyone's initial, visceral reaction is to want to see this named, and subsequently a central atlantic tempest yesterday, but I'm hioping that it waits to get its act together. This thing goes to town east of the islands, and it has about as much chance of making it to the US, as Kev does of getting carded at the next gtg in October. Keep this bad Larry as free of the influence of the upper air currents as possible, while east of those islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Notice that even in that pants-tent, optimal weenie-run, they still all recurve before reaching sne....save for one that tries to pull a Bob, which would still blow for 90% of us. I'd rather pull for a se US lf. So far it looks like a recurve to me but anything can happen at this point. We should know more in 72-96 hours. I think you're right in that a betting man would put some money down on the SE (inc. Florida). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Nice to see the Euro finally catch on with a Cane hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Nice to see the Euro finally catch on with a Cane hit yeah that's a monster on that 12z run. so many isobars, i can't even read whether it's 1010 or 1008 mb when it plows into and demolishes S FL. verbatim...that's probably some serious flower damage and a big puddle advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 yeah that's a monster on that 12z run. so many isobars, i can't even read whether it's 1010 or 1008 mb when it plows into and demolishes S FL. verbatim...that's probably some serious flower damage and a big puddle advisory. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 This could be an epic KFS fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 This could be an epic KFS fail. I don't really know what Kevin is even talking about anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 This could be an epic KFS fail. All i've ever said is this has the potential to be a major hit somewhere on the east coast. Not sure why folks are having trouble following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 yeah that's a monster on that 12z run. so many isobars, i can't even read whether it's 1010 or 1008 mb when it plows into and demolishes S FL. verbatim...that's probably some serious flower damage and a big puddle advisory. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Satellite looks pretty good currently..It really looks like it's already a TD..The sooner we get it to develop the better the chances of it tracking north of the Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 All i've ever said is this has the potential to be a major hit somewhere on the east coast. Not sure why folks are having trouble following. yes major zzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Nice to see the Euro finally catch on with a strong cane.Late to the party. Looks like the GGEM is probably the most likely scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Nice to see the Euro finally catch on with a strong cane.Late to the party. Looks like the GGEM is probably the most likely scenario And how strong will that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Yup If this is a threat, its to the Caribbean and Gulf. Looks as though the NAO is trending towards neutral in the upcoming days. Flow is looking more zonal across the conus. The Alt ridge also looks to build W, preventing any curve to the N until at least Hispaniola. Still on course with my call. System just became a TD as well so development has been slow as expected. I think this system flirts with Hispaniola/Cuba before curving to the N and impacting the gulf coast somewhere. Will need to monitor the Atl ridging to see when it breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Looks very good this morning on the vis..Close to a TS already..Should see some decent intensification today. The sooner it gets stronger the more north it goes..so we can start ruling out those carib. calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Looks very good this morning on the vis..Close to a TS already..Should see some decent intensification today. The sooner it gets stronger the more north it goes..so we can start ruling out those carib. calls I'm not so sure intensification will have much of an impact on track if the Atl Ridge holds strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This looks like an eastern Gulf cane, with tropical rains for us as it moves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This looks like an eastern Gulf cane, with tropical rains for us as it moves north. Only the Euro is showing a Gulf cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This will probably be more of a rain threat down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This will probably be more of a rain threat down the road. For us or the East coast in general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This will probably be more of a rain threat down the road. hvy hvy flooding, damage, and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 This will probably be more of a rain threat down the road. My money on a remnant labor day weekend washout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 For us or the East coast in general? I'm just referring to our area. What I mean is that if it were to approach this area....it might not even do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 FD and PDA enroute (flower damage and big puddle advisory) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Only the Euro is showing a Gulf cane. yes, to early but that is my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Don't post anything storm related in the Isaac thread on the main page. If you're not one of the tropical officienado's they delete everything even when it's directly related to the outcome of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Don't post anything storm related in the Isaac thread on the main page. If you're not one of the tropical officienado's they delete everything even when it's directly related to the outcome of the storm. Good they should. I read that thread this morning when I got up and it was wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 21, 2012 Share Posted August 21, 2012 Looks like some models hinting at a possible rain event from the upcoming system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.