CapturedNature Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 All systems that formed near 94L, assuming it gets classified within the next 24 hours. Looks like most systems recurve. I'm in the "not much to see here camp" for the 4-5 days, at least for us. The GFS ensembles seem to place "it" approaching the Caribbean by then and most members taking a right hand turn and a few continuing the course. We'll know better when its there where "it" is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Looks like most systems recurve. I'm in the "not much to see here camp" for the 4-5 days, at least for us. The GFS ensembles seem to place "it" in the Caribbean by then and most members taking a right hand turn and a few continuing the course. We'll know better when its there where "it" is going. Along with a good number of EC hits. The far west tracks into the Gulf are the most unlikely is really what we can decipher from this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Looks like most systems recurve. I'm in the "not much to see here camp" for the 4-5 days, at least for us. The GFS ensembles seem to place "it" approaching the Caribbean by then and most members taking a right hand turn and a few continuing the course. We'll know better when its there where "it" is going. Was just going to post this image. Pretty good consensus of there being some form of a system off the Florida Coast. The key is what kind of system will it be........just a disturbance or a full blown 'cane. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 19, 2012 Author Share Posted August 19, 2012 LOL Yes, that's what we can decipher from that the problem is that the trend is west, and weak. gfs ens are notoriously slow to respond to initialization differences and associated track error/chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 The threat looms larger Allan Huffman @RaleighWx But most Euro members east of this over eastern GUlf, Florida, and off Southeast coast and stronger. Definitely a threat 10-12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 The threat looms larger Allan Huffman @RaleighWx But most Euro members east of this over eastern GUlf, Florida, and off Southeast coast and stronger. Definitely a threat 10-12 days. What's up snownh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 What's up snownh? He's really gone off the deep end today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 He's really gone off the deep end today. Yes, very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 CLimo does say that Carribean cruisers are not exactly a common thing here, but if it stays relatively weak..it will scoot more west instead of west-northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 All I'm saying is it's a very real threat to the east coast. Nothing more..nothing less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 All I'm saying is it's a very real threat to the east coast. Nothing more..nothing less Pretty strong ridge builds to the north at the same time, so that also wants to keep it into the Carb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 What's up snownh? He's really gone off the deep end today. Yes, very bad. where's that weenie tag when you need one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Pretty strong ridge builds to the north at the same time, so that also wants to keep it into the Carb. Euro ens don't necc agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Yup If this is a threat, its to the Caribbean and Gulf. Looks as though the NAO is trending towards neutral in the upcoming days. Flow is looking more zonal across the conus. The Alt ridge also looks to build W, preventing any curve to the N until at least Hispaniola. Pretty strong ridge builds to the north at the same time, so that also wants to keep it into the Carb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Euro ens don't necc agree You mean this one? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Cane Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Fail. THE MOST PREVAILING FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...DAYS 3-7...INCLUDE A SOMEWHAT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CYCLONES IN THE TROPICS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 THE MOST PREVAILING FEATURES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...DAYS 3-7...INCLUDE A SOMEWHAT STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CYCLONES IN THE TROPICS What's the point snowNH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 What's the point snowNH? Cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Sultan Rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Sultan Rains? Probably the bigger threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Catostrophic damaging winds? Probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Still like my thoughts from yesterday on a Caribbean threat right now. System is still not well organized. Looks like there are a couple competing pieces of convection that may inhibiting much strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I think forward speed is inhibiting further organization especially. However I thought a wsw motion would commence soon but llc went slightly n of due west now @15.7 n 45.2 w 1245z. Great post blizz let's get this to a cane turnin nw just ne of hispanola then its showtime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 I think forward speed is inhibiting further organization especially. However I thought a wsw motion would commence soon but llc went slightly n of due west now @15.7 n 45.2 w 1245z. Great post blizz let's get this to a cane turnin nw just ne of hispanola then its showtime If that can happen, than maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 If that can happen, than maybe. . I think if the ull to the nw can sink sw more it could be in a area to clear out some sal ahead and more importantly steer 94l just wnw enuf to go north of shredderolla perhaps effecting pr along the way. I have very low confidence in this happening but who knows, however if a wsw motion begins soon I think the n of islands path would be much lower probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 one met i respect says the LLC is showing signs of weakening and opening up....and he decreased the chance of this being a tropical storm by the time it hits the longitude of the first islands to 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted August 20, 2012 Share Posted August 20, 2012 Seems like Issac to be,convection starting to fire up near the center,with a distinct low level center forming as of this hour. Could we see a TD or even TS Issac by the 5 or 11pm advisory today. winds at 30mph interestingly enough,last year when Irene came through as a strong TS vermont and NH and Maine got alot of wind and flooding rains..and still are recovering after that fiasco,We lost power for three days here in Maine...A whole lot of warm water or should I say SST's are very toasty..so who knows how big Issac could get if the East Coast track verifies re the SST's. Alot of model watching from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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