OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 :axe: :axe: nice landfall pattern lol. Too bad the storm is located 500 nm too far northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 nice landfall pattern lol. Too bad the storm is located 500 nm too far northeast. yep. that's part of the reason why it's historically about a 1/20 yr deal. takes a lot to get all the pieces in place perfectly. doesn't rule out some weak indirect/direct impacts but true landfall of a 'cane takes a nice alignment of a bunch of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 yep. that's part of the reason why it's historically about a 1/20 yr deal. takes a lot to get all the pieces in place perfectly. doesn't rule out some weak indirect/direct impacts but true landfall of a 'cane takes a nice alignment of a bunch of stuff. 5 H tad too far East and neutral tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 nice landfall pattern lol. Too bad the storm is located 500 nm too far northeast. That is textbook practically..lol. Dam storm is just too far NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 5 H tad too far East and neutral tilt. I think it's the current set-up, position and movement that's the problem more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I think it's the current set-up, position and movement that's the problem more so. Yea if Leslie was near the Bahamas I would worry but pretty sure this is fish food. Leslie 38 and 54 setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 What would it take? OH valley to deepen? Absolutely.. more of a full-latitude trough too. One would also like to see both positive height anomalies centers over NW Canada and an even stronger one out over the AO to the SE of Newfoundland Euro looks overdone to me. It's the most extreme solution possible and it still is wide right. Agree totally Euro looks dead nuts on. In fact I see room for another 50-100 mile shift west Totally disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 I think it's the current set-up, position and movement that's the problem more so. Synoptically this is the perfect pattern. Problem is we domt have a storm. A strong hurricane near the Bahamas would rocket north as a monster new England hurricane. Bermuda will not do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 This is certainly a very interesting watch....... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al12/loop_5W.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 5 H tad too far East and neutral tilt. Neutral tilt not bad as long as trough is both amplifying but not too progressive along with a commensurate LW ridge over the W'rn AO and maximum heights around 40N and abouth 65-60W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Neutral tilt not bad as long as trough is both amplifying but not too progressive along with a commensurate LW ridge over the W'rn AO and maximum heights around 40N and abouth 65-60W Yup you nailed it. Step 1 is getting the UA pattern to behave and step 2 is getting a storm. The latter is missing. It's possible we get a Bill or at the absolute worst case scenario Edouard. The euro is by far the most anomalous and extreme 500mb setup and there's nothing to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Neutral tilt not bad as long as trough is both amplifying but not too progressive along with a commensurate LW ridge over the W'rn AO and maximum heights around 40N and abouth 65-60W Well I mean in relationship to Leslie. In order for Leslie to become a threat with the depicted 5 H pattern, if that's even correct still far away, it would need to be further West near the Bahamas. Current position would require a negative tilt to be captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Yup you nailed it. Step 1 is getting the UA pattern to behave and step 2 is getting a storm. The latter is missing. It's possible we get a Bill or at the absolute worst case scenario Edouard. The euro is by far the most anomalous and extreme 500mb setup and there's nothing to show for it. Agree but even the EC 8-10 anom from e-wall is not favorable for a NEUS LF Well I mean in relationship to Leslie. In order for Leslie to become a threat with the depicted 5 H pattern, if that's even correct still far away, it would need to be further West near the Bahamas. Current position would require a negative tilt to be captured. I agree with ya as it relates to current position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Rain on the Cape between 192 and 204 looking at 12Z Euro AccuWx PPV. 198 hour skew-T at 41.75ºN and 70ºW shows 40 knot winds very near the surface and I'm eyballing 75 knots at 850 mb. 52 mm PW. A week away, but even the current Euro has some affects on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Wow. Not what I wanted to see. The Euro crushes us here in NS. If the Canadian or nam had that track, I'd laugh it off but when it's the Euro, I take some notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Wow. Not what I wanted to see. The Euro crushes us here in NS. If the Canadian or nam had that track, I'd laugh it off but when it's the Euro, I take some notice Says something about Euro having good grid scale resolution for a global, big area of 75 knot plus winds offshore, when it reaches Nova Scotai, there is an amazingly tight gradient between 75 knot 10 meter winds and 40 knot 10 meters winds along the coast 204 through 228. Viewing, again, AccuWx PPV Euro 10 meter winds at 6 hour intervals, 'Grand Banks' as area selected. ETA: Over a week away, but I lived in Halifax, I'd be checking hotel rooms in Liverpool and Lockeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Says something about Euro having good grid scale resolution for a global, big area of 75 knot plus winds offshore, when it reaches Nova Scotai, there is an amazingly tight gradient between 75 knot 10 meter winds and 40 knot 10 meters winds along the coast 204 through 228. Viewing, again, AccuWx PPV Euro 10 meter winds at 6 hour intervals, 'Grand Banks' as area selected. ETA: Over a week away, but I lived in Halifax, I'd be checking hotel rooms in Liverpool and Lockeport. Thanks for your thoughts. I'll apologize in advance for the weenie imby post but could you give me the winds for hr 192-204. Say for Yarmouth maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Thanks for your thoughts. I'll apologize in advance for the weenie imby post but could you give me the winds for hr 192-204. Say for Yarmouth maybe? The AccuWx map isn't that high detail, but just SW Coastal NS (about where Yarmouth is) looks to exceed 50 knots at the coast. If you want some onshore component, I'd go w/ Liverpool. Winds will be offshore at Yarmouth. This is 204 hours away. Don't book a hotel room yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 hotel room booked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 Imagine the weenie rejoice if we saw a miracle track like this unfold...strange things can happen and have happened, I suppose. At least Canada is in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I'd love to be in Nova Soctia right now..staring down the barrel of a gun. Strongest cane to ever hit them is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I'd love to be in Nova Soctia right now..staring down the barrel of a gun. Strongest cane to ever hit them is possible. To early to say that for sure. Looking at whats already on its way on the buoys (huge swell) this thing will have a tremendous impact to the coast regardless of the exact track. Multiple days of large powerful long period groundswell can do some impressive beach erosion and coastal reshaping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I'd love to be in Nova Soctia right now..staring down the barrel of a gun. Strongest cane to ever hit them is possible. Reel in the hype a bit please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I'd love to be in Nova Soctia right now..staring down the barrel of a gun. Strongest cane to ever hit them is possible. Do you write news headlines for Good Morning America and Diane Sawyer on World News Tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Hyperbowl 2012 version Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Not to sure if my 53 year old eyes are playing tricks on me this morning but I detect the start of a eye on Leslie...despite the shear that the NHC indicates Leslie is experiencing as of the 5am advisory...could be wrong...check it out http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html but hell what do I know,I'm just a weather weenie from Maine... Thanks Craig http://northeastweathereye.com Augusta Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Do you write news headlines for Good Morning America and Diane Sawyer on World News Tonight? JB actually.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Sweet http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/viewer.shtml?-multi_1-latest-US_eastcoast-hs- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I'd love to be in Nova Soctia right now..staring down the barrel of a gun. Strongest cane to ever hit them is possible. Stop. You're not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Stop. You're not even funny. Wasn't trying to be.Serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.