CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 All this will do, is get Kevin excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Day 8 ECMWF: Looks like 150-200 miles SE of Cape Cod. Lost the 850mb wind option, but still a cat 2/cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 All this will do, is get Kevin excited. That's pretty much my feeling as well. Only caveat for me is still looking at 5-7 days out and slow/erratic movement for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Would be a nice way to usher in some legit autumnal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 That's pretty much my feeling as well. Only caveat for me is still looking at 5-7 days out and slow/erratic movement for a while. It's annoying the storm could not be west. That thing would be right up your fanny if it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Looks like we are in the "day 8 exotic output by the ECMWF to get Kevin excited" phase of the typical TC missing us by 500 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 It's annoying the storm could not be west. That thing would be right up your fanny if it was. What would it take? OH valley to deepen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 What would it take? OH valley to deepen? Borderline miracle lol. Even to brush the Cape with TS conditions it needs to deepen more in the OV and ridging to the east stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 Yeah, the odds are fairly low of even TS conditions on the Cape. However, given we are still many days out, it will be extremely annoying , I mean interesting, to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro looks overdone to me. It's the most extreme solution possible and it still is wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro looks dead nuts on. In fact I see room for another 50-100 mile shift west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro looks dead nuts on. In fact I see room for another 50-100 mile shift west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Triple bunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro looks dead nuts on. In fact I see room for another 50-100 mile shift west There is maybe error for shift west, however the more likely scenario is a shift 200 mi east of the GEM or EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 euro ens look relatively similar to the op...big grain of salt...but fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro ENS are much deeper than 0 Z ,Bill like track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Should folks start boarding up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Should folks start boarding up? Swordfish fleet should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Should folks start boarding up? Lol I'm right at the big y near you want me to grab you some milk and bread before its all gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Should folks start boarding up? Yeah this thing is gonna go 1938 all over your ass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 Forget glass half-full, beer suds overflowing everywhere in Tolland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 It looks like there is one euro ensemble member that makes landfall in Virginia? Hard to tell on the mean ensemble pressure map. Mabye it's that cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro tickles downeast maines fanny with leslie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Who is AndyHb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Euro spag plots really keep Leslie way offshore. There is a baroclinic low that develops and that may be causing the baggy appearance to the isobars extending from Leslie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Basically this is the deal. The EC is digging a piece of energy and cutting it off while the initial trough lifts out. GFS does not cutoff that vortmax and the end result is a kick very wide right. 18z GFS is trying to cut the vortmax off a little more, but even with the euro op...we need a lot more help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 :axe: :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Its a long shot at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Basically this is the deal. The EC is digging a piece of energy and cutting it off while the initial trough lifts out. GFS does not cutoff that vortmax and the end result is a kick very wide right. 18z GFS is trying to cut the vortmax off a little more, but even with the euro op...we need a lot more help. It trended about 2.5 degrees/150nm WSW through the first 5 days. Hits Bermuda dead on as opposed to recurving at 62.5W. But like you said, a whole lot more needs to happen for the East Coast to be anywhere close to the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 if this were just NE of the bahamas in a few days...with that synoptic set - up on the ec ens....man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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